Fantasy & Reality: The Thursday night riddle
The Thursday night games have left a lot to be desired through two games. Dave Richard checked out past performances on Thursdays to see what trends owners can use to their advantage.
While it's awesome to have a football game early every week, Thursday nights remain a mystery to Fantasy Football owners.
Through two weeks already this season we've seen the Patriots squeak by the Jets (most would have expected the Pats to beat them soundly) and the Eagles get roasted by the Chiefs (most would have expected the Eagles to put up more of a fight). Already, Thursday night games are on par from last year's editions in terms of let-down performances and a lack of scoring. Just look at Tom Brady (13) in Week 2 and Michael Vick (17) last Thursday night. The receivers in these first two Thursday nighters have also been busts (outside of Jason Avant).
The Thursday games aren't just hard on Fantasy owners. Coaches have a hard time with them, too.
"Honestly, I feel particularly as the season goes on, it's hard. It's hard to recover," former Steelers head coach and current The NFL Today analyst Bill Cowher told me this week. "You try to do a little bit of preparation in training camp because you're already cut down on how much time you have to meet with the players (the week of the game). We used to do that for Thanksgiving so we'd have a little bit of an idea of what we wanted to do."
Getting ready to play football in four days is a tough chore, and the results of which have proven to be perplexing. Take any angle to any game and chances are you'd be surprised with the results. Only nine teams in 2012 scored 30-plus points (five on Thanksgiving) while 11 teams scored 14 or fewer. Home teams were 8-8. Teams coming off a win went 9-9 while teams coming off a loss were 7-7. Teams coming off a home game were 11-14. Teams coming off a road game -- explain this one -- were 5-2.
And if that doesn't stun you, this will: You'd think teams would be uber-prepared for their contest following their Thursday game considering a 10-day layoff. Well, teams went 15-17 the following week after a Thursday night game.
Of course these numbers are in a vacuum and don't specifically preach to a Fantasy audience. But this one does: On Thursdays in 2012 only six quarterbacks had 20-plus Fantasy points, 23 running backs had 10-plus points (11 had 15-plus points), 24 receivers had 10-plus Fantasy points (just seven had 15-plus points) and four tight ends had 10-plus Fantasy points. When you consider these numbers came over 16 games, they're disappointing across the board, save for the running backs.
This makes sense. On a short week it's probably harder for non-cornerback defenders to recover from the clang-and-bang they took on just four days prior. Offensive linemen probably have similar troubles, but running backs don't. There's maybe one practice, two walk-thrus and plenty of time for a running back to heal up. They're fresher. Additionally, the playbook knowledge a running back has to have is inherently smaller than quarterbacks, receivers and tight ends. Their assignments aren't as complicated. Pretty much every stud running back from 2012 shined in their Thursday game, especially those who played late in the year. Of the 22 rushers who produced 10 or more Fantasy points in 2012, 14 came in the final seven weeks of the Thursday slate (nine games).
Already this season three of the four starting running backs that have played on a short week's rest have posted at least 12 Fantasy points. To be fair, two of them were Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy. But Bilal Powell's 12-point game is nothing to sneeze at. Capable running backs deserve automatic Fantasy consideration on Thursdays.
The other positions just haven't measured up. Quarterbacks have to intimately learn the tendencies of their opponents. Receivers have to size up the defensive backs. Tight ends, who also probably take on more punishment physically than other players, also have to get to know opposing linebackers and safeties. These guys are all professionals but it's a tall order to have an in-depth knowledge of an opponent with less than 100 hours of prep time to work with.
In turn, the Fantasy spin is simple: Don't use a non-running back playing on Thursday unless it's a slam-dunk -- not even a slam-dunk matchup is enough to justify a non-obvious player. As podcast and video host Adam Aizer says, "When in doubt, Thursday's out!"
|Game||Top QB||Top RB||Top WR||Top TE|
|Bears 10||J. Cutler (4)||M. Forte (7)||B. Marshall (2)||K. Davis (8)|
|Packers 23||A. Rodgers (12)||C. Benson (11)||J. Nelson (8)||T. Crabtree (8)|
|Giants 36||E. Manning (17)||A. Brown (24)||R. Barden (13)||M. Bennett (13)|
|Panthers 7||C. Newton (9)||D. Williams (7)||S. Smith (8)||G. Olsen (9)|
|Browns 16||B. Weeden (10)||T. Richardson (15)||G. Little (7)||B. Watson (5)|
|Ravens 23||J. Flacco (24)||R. Rice (8)||T. Smith (15)*||D. Pitta (0)|
|Cardinals 3||K. Kolb (9)||R. Williams (3)||L. Fitzgerald (9)||R. Housler (4)|
|Rams 17||S. Bradford (15)||S. Jackson (7)||C. Givens (11)||L. Kendricks (6)|
|Steelers 23||Roethlisberger (19)||I. Redman (11)||M. Wallace (15)||H. Miller (6)|
|Titans 26||Hasselbeck (15)||C. Johnson (11)||K. Britt (12)||J. Cook (5)|
|Seahawks 6||R. Wilson (3)||M. Lynch (11)||B. Obomanu (5)||Z. Miller (0)|
|49ers 13||A. Smith (10)||F. Gore (18)||M. Crabtree (3)||D. Walker (7)|
|Buccaneers 36||J. Freeman (28)||D. Martin (32)||M. Williams (12)||D. Clark (4)|
|Vikings 17||C. Ponder (15)||A. Peterson (16)||P. Harvin (15)||K. Rudolph (1)|
|Chiefs 13||M. Cassel (6)||J. Charles (5)||D. Bowe (7)||S. Maneri (0)|
|Chargers 31||P. Rivers (18)||R. Mathews (6)||M. Floyd (10)||A. Gates (10)|
|Colts 21||A. Luck (18)||V. Ballard (5)||R. Wayne (9)||D. Allen (3)|
|Jaguars 10||C. Henne (8)||R. Jennings (2)||C. Shorts (16)||M. Lewis (3)|
|Dolphins 14||R. Tannehill (7)||R. Bush (3)||D. Bess (11)||A. Fasano (0)|
|Bills 19||R. Fitzpatrick (7)||C. Spiller (12)||S. Johnson (7)||S. Chandler (3)|
|Texans 34||M. Schaub (16)||A. Foster (23)*||A. Johnson (18).||O. Daniels (8)|
|Lions 31||M. Stafford (29)||M. Leshoure (11)*||C. Johnson (20)*||B. Pettigrew (7)|
|Redskins 38||R. Griffin III (36)||A. Morris (17)||P. Garcon (14)*||N. Paul (8)|
|Cowboys 31||T. Romo (33)||F. Jones (11)||D. Bryant (24)||J. Witten (7)|
|Patriots 49||T. Brady (36)||S. Vereen (19)*||W. Welker (13)*||A. Hernandez (3)|
|Jets 19||M. Sanchez (14)||B. Powell (11)||J. Kerley (8)||D. Keller (12)|
|Saints 13||D. Brees (3)||P. Thomas (8)||L. Moore (12)||J. Graham (5)|
|Falcons 23||M. Ryan (12)||M. Turner (12)||J. Jones (4)||T. Gonzalez (11)|
|Broncos 26||P. Manning (16)||K. Moreno (21)||E. Decker (8)||J. Dreessen (9)|
|Raiders 13||C. Palmer (18)||D. McFadden (12)||Heyward-Bey (14)*||B. Myers (0)|
|Bengals 34||A. Dalton (14)||Green-Ellis (16)||A. Green (11)||J. Gresham (6)|
|Eagles 13||N. Foles (9)||B. Brown (4)||R. Cooper (8)||C. Harbor (2)|
|* - denotes multiple players on the team had 10-plus Fantasy points|
Why I'm waiting for Wilson
Simply put, the Giants have no choice but to put the ball back into David Wilson's hands. To help fix their busted offense they need to re-establish their run game, not just between the tackles but on the outer edges and on screens and dump-off passes.
Wilson is their best option to get that going and it's not even close. Brandon Jacobs is a bruiser with no quickness or agility left in his tank. Da'Rel Scott is a better passing downs back but doesn't have the playmaking ability Wilson has.
I noticed Wilson trying to get revved up last week at Carolina. Though he totaled zero yards on his first seven carries, those official numbers don't include a 17-yard run to the left edge for a touchdown that was nullified by a holding penalty (the hold, I believe, was just far enough away on the play to not make a difference had the defender not been held). Then when the game was lopsided in the third quarter Wilson picked up a few more opportunities, reeling off runs for 11, 14 (called back due to penalty that did help Wilson out), minus-1, 12 and 18 yards.
It should be enough to show the Giants coaches that he can help the offense, even if it is painfully obvious that the Giants offensive line is a major problem. Maybe that gets worked out, maybe the Giants work around it or maybe Wilson is part of the solution (he can catch the ball). But his skill set is too valuable for the Giants to ignore when they're looking for wins.
With four of the G-Men's next six games against the Eagles, Vikings and Raiders, I would try pawning off a receiver for Wilson immediately.
Fantasy & Reality
Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) from around the league.
Fantasy: Russell Wilson won't have to throw much against Jacksonville, and that's why he'll stink. I couldn't have been more wrong. Wilson's first score was a goal-line job where tight end Zach Miller faked a block, actually hit the ground, and got up and was wide open for an easy score. The second, also to Miller, came off a play-action bootleg that had most of the Jaguars defense confused. The third was on an 11-yard post pattern by Sidney Rice and the fourth was not a well thought-out pass but Rice plucked it right in front of a Jaguars defensive back for a score. The lessons learned: Jacksonville's pass defense isn't very good, and anytime a quarterback needs to get in a groove his team will afford him the chance against any weak opponent. Let's hope Wilson can build off of this when he plays at Houston and at Indy over the next two weeks.
Reality: Dwayne Bowe's numbers are in trouble. Bowe would love a "get right" game against the Jaguars but he's already played them. Through three games Bowe has 17 targets, nine catches, 90 yards and a touchdown. Jamaal Charles has more targets while Donnie Avery has one fewer target. Avery is the only Chiefs player with a receiving average higher than 11.0 and has two catches for more than 30 yards (only one was a legitimate deep pass). The common thread? Alex Smith, who has attempted just eight passes for 15-plus yards through three games (105 attempts!). The problems that hindered Michael Crabtree in San Francisco are now in Bowe's lap in Kansas City.
Fantasy: Chris Ivory is the Jets' best running back. I'm more confident than ever in Bilal Powell leading the Jets' ground game. Ivory's hamstring has flared up, Mike Goodson will never be more than a passing-downs option and the offense is just barely good enough to give him a chance to post some good cumulative numbers. He has 12 and 14 points in standard formats the last two weeks. Consider Powell the cheapest starting running back available via trade right now.
Reality: Josh Gordon isn't going away. I would be stunned if Josh Gordon's numbers regressed like they did last year when he had three good games in a row and then pretty much disappeared. The Browns are sorely lacking at running back and I don't see that changing. That means they'll pass more often, much like they did last week at Minnesota, and with Jordan Cameron forcing defenses to pay attention to him it won't be a matter of Gordon being double covered all of the time. Brian Hoyer has also showed that he can chuck it. Gordon might not get 19 targets or 10 catches in a game again this season but we haven't seen his last 100-yard contest.
Fantasy: It's a good idea to spend a decent draft pick on a DST. The top three DSTs drafted this summer were the Seahawks, 49ers and Bears, all with a pick before 100th overall on average. None of them are the top DST through three weeks, though the Seahawks rank second and the Bears rank fourth. The Niners? 29th. The Bengals, Broncos and Texans were also early Fantasy DST choices and none of them are in the Top 12 right now. Meanwhile, the Chiefs, Cowboys and Panthers are in the Top 6. Next year do yourself a favor and wait forever for a DST unless it's an absolute stud unit like the Seahawks, which works as a Round 11 pick.
Reality: I'm liking Kenbrell Thompkins. Of course, I liked Thompkins before, and it's easy to say I like him following a two-score performance. But over three weeks he's been thrown at in or near the end zone five times and it began to pay off last week. Assume that by the time the Patriots' receiving corps gets healthy Thompkins and Brady will have their chemistry issues close to being fixed. Defenses won't be able to do any better than single coverage on Thompkins, making him a consistent No. 3 Fantasy receiver.
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