When I make tough lineup calls for my own Fantasy Football teams, the matchup is the biggest consideration. A player's expected workload also matters a heck of a lot. But in this all-important week, I ask myself one more thing: Would I make this same lineup decision in a less consequential week? Whether I answer yes or no, I get an answer to my lineup dilemma. Unconventional decisions are more likely to stick with you -- "Why did I start THAT guy?!" -- than those where you can say you rode the player who got you to the finals -- "Well at least I lost with THAT guy." But the Fantasy game is the same every single week -- start the guys who you think will get you the most points. Keep that in mind and you shouldn't have that much angst over any choice you make.
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All lines from William Hill Sportsbook.
The line wants us to believe: The Saints' last two losses are no biggie. New Orleans' defense has started to let them down, but the oddsmakers are hoping you won't notice. They want you to take the Saints and gave them an appealing number because they knew no one would pick Minnesota. The Vikings are capable of marching downfield on the Saints and shouldn't be slept on to compete. Just two of Minnesota's last six losses were by more than a touchdown. I think they will cover.
Brees looked awful in the first half last week against the Chiefs (5 of 16 passing), and yet he still found a way to find 25 Fantasy points by the end of the game. Fantasy managers should be encouraged by his 8-of-12 passing in the fourth quarter, proof that all he needed to do was dust off some cobwebs before getting into a rhythm. The Vikings have kept six of the past seven quarterbacks they've faced to under 20 Fantasy points, but the overwhelming majority of those passers were mediocre. Know what's more mediocre? The Vikings pass rush, which has collected just four sacks in Minnesota's past five games. Pair that with rookie starting cornerbacks for the Vikings, and Brees should be in line for a good statistical output.
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When Brees hits Sanders downfield (like he did on a 51-yard bomb last week), or when he peppers him with targets, Sanders is sensational for our purposes. But most of Sanders' work comes in short areas, and if he has to stop and start his movement, he's pretty easy to catch. As a safe-floor type of PPR receiver, Sanders works. He's hit 11-plus PPR points in four of his past five games with Brees. It'll take a touchdown (he's scored four of those) or a bunch of targets (he's had seven-plus in two games) in order for him to be great. You should be able to find a receiver with more upside, but if not, Sanders is among those who works as a flex.
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Cook registers as a good-enough-to-start tight end, but not a gotta-start tight end. He had a tough game last week that included a miscommunication with Drew Brees on a hot route, but made up for it with a clutch fourth-down grab that extended a drive that ended with a touchdown (for someone else). The reality is that Cook has delivered at least eight non-PPR/11 PPR points in two of his past three, and that track record isn't easy to find at his position. The Vikings rank seventh in fewest Fantasy points allowed to tight ends over the past three weeks. They actually have allowed just one score in their past four (five on the year).
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The line wants us to believe: This is Detroit's Super Bowl. This definitely feels like a sucker line. Who would take Detroit getting any less than two touchdowns?! The oddsmakers are banking on the Lions giving a big effort at home against a Tampa defense that has shown some warts lately. Problem is, I have a hard time banking on the Lions to give anything. Five of their past six losses have been by 10-plus points. If the oddsmakers are giving this line, I'm taking it.
The two touchdowns Fournette burrowed for will mask some of the ugly runs he had last week. He averaged 1.3 yards per carry at halftime, barely getting the ball and displaying a lack of suddenness and poor vision when he did. But Fournette is proof that even inadequate players can be Fantasy assets because his opportunity to be the Bucs' main back against a horrific Lions defense cannot be denied. You could run down a number of incredible stats that paint Detroit's run-stopping unit as weak, but my favorite is that they've given up an average of two touchdowns per game to running backs in their past eight matchups. Fournette is likely to score and should touch the ball enough to muster at least 40 yards. That puts him in the No. 2 range at running back. You just might not want to watch.
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Gronk has delivered six or fewer non-PPR/seven or fewer PPR in three of his past four games, yet I still think he's a starter. He's gotten at least six targets from Tom Brady in three of his past four, so it's not like he's a forgotten man, plus typically there's one per game where Gronk is in the end zone. He also got open a couple of times last week but wasn't targeted, so he's not a complete slug. But who am I kidding? The Lions have let up at least 10 PPR points to a tight end in each of their past three games, and nine-plus PPR points to a tight end in seven of their past nine. Detroit's defense can't pressure the quarterback and can't cover tight ends. Or receivers. Or anybody. Gronkowski's worth one more ride in Week 16.
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The line wants us to believe: The 49ers' loss to the Cowboys, and the injuries suffered in the game, mean little. It's a fishy line -- I don't think there are many people who would take a depleted San Fran squad starting their third-string quarterback getting just five points against anyone. I think the oddsmakers think the Niners will play their division rivals tough (they usually do), plus don't forget that Arizona nearly blew their lead against the Eagles twice last week. I think I'll take a cue from the oddsmakers and nervously side with the 49ers and the points.
No Raheem Mostert? No problem. Wilson figures to assume the primary rusher role for the 49ers, a gig that has brought in at least 15 touches in 11 of 14 games. Wilson's done more with less -- in five games with at least 10 touches, he's produced at least eight non-PPR/nine PPR points four times, and 12-plus points (PPR or non-PPR) three times. That should give you a good idea of his floor. The Cardinals have given up six rushing scores and 4.4 yards per carry to running backs in their past five, suggesting a positive matchup. Don't expect Wilson to handle every carry, but as a physical back with goal-line chops playing in a still-effective offense that's trying to keep its run game solid, he's worthy as a No. 2 Fantasy rusher, especially in half- and non-PPR.
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It sure felt like the Cardinals were far more comfortable leaning on Kyler Murray and the passing game against a depleted Eagles secondary rather than ride Drake into Philly's defensive front. Chase Edmonds saw more playing time in passing situations, and the Cards did plenty of that. If anything, it was a signal that the offense is back to being all about Murray. San Francisco gave up a pair of rushing scores to the Cowboys' Tony Pollard last week and 4.4 yards per tote to backs in its past five, but it might not matter with Murray seemingly healthy again. The only way Drake could confidently be in lineups is if Edmonds doesn't play -- he missed practice early this week.
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The line wants us to believe: The Raiders will be competitive. Miami has earned the right to be called a tough, savvy team. The Raiders have one last-minute lucky win against the then-winless Jets since Week 11. The only thing slowing me down from racing to take Miami is the feeling that it's a line designed for me to do exactly that. This week is full of suspicious lines and this is another one. However, I can't resist the Dolphins side knowing they are superior to the Raiders in pretty much every way.
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Sunday will be the first time both Gaskin and Ahmed figure to be active for the Dolphins in the same game. Not that they aren't used to splitting with each other -- they both played for the Washington Huskies in 2017 and 2018 (Gaskin had more work then). Up to this point in the pros, however, Gaskin has been the primary Dolphins running back when he's healthy and Ahmed has filled in for him otherwise. But Ahmed ran really well last week against the Patriots and may have more than a token role even with Gaskin back. Where Gaskin definitely has an edge is in passing situations -- that seems to be a cinch. I imagine both will work on rushing downs, which there should be plenty of in this matchup. Las Vegas has allowed 15-plus PPR points to a running back in five of its past seven games. A rusher has run for a score on the Raiders in each of their past five, including Kalen Ballage dunking on them from the goal line. Vegas has given up 19 total touchdowns and 4.9 yards per carry to running backs on the season. Gaskin is the more appealing flex of the two, but both should see at least 10 touches.
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The line wants us to believe: The Browns will keep rolling. Cleveland's win last week was its first by 10-plus points since Week 5. The Jets' stunning win featured some incredible defensive effort and smart utilization of their running backs. Losing Quinnen Williams on the D-line stinks, but no one should rule out the Jets rolling over against a Browns team that's found ways to win, but not by a wide margin.
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The combination of a struggling Jets pass defense and an on-fire Baker Mayfield playing behind a strong offensive line should make this elementary. That O-line is crucial -- the Jets got after Jared Goff last week but face a tougher matchup with the Browns' bunch (especially without Quinnen Williams). Said O-line has also helped Mayfield have time to throw accurately, which has been a humongous part of his four-game streak with at least 22 Fantasy points. Mayfield is a safe Fantasy option. The Browns did a great job utilizing their tight ends last week against the Giants and should end up doing the same against the Jets, who rank first in Fantasy points allowed to tight ends. That puts Hooper in prime position to score in consecutive weeks, though David Njoku or Harrison Bryant could ruin that.
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The line wants us to believe: Pittsburgh's three-game losing skid isn't indicative of who they are. I'm old enough to remember when the Steelers were undefeated -- now they're home underdogs. The oddsmakers couldn't have made the Steelers a favorite, but even 1.5 points feels light. Indy has won three straight and actually has only one more loss than Pittsburgh. They definitely have the better run game and also may have the better defense at this point. Maybe I'm getting suckered a little bit here, but I'm taking the road team.
The good news is that Smith-Schuster's playing time hasn't been compromised and he's still among the primary targets of Ben Roethlisberger. The bad news is that he's devolved into a slot-dominant short-area possession receiver. His average depth of target has been 5.0 yards or shorter in five straight games. He has two red-zone targets in his past three outings. And with one touchdown allowed from the slot this season, nickelback Kenny Moore ranks as one of Pro Football Focus' most efficient slot cornerbacks with a reception allowed every 8.7 snaps in coverage. This figures to be a touchdown-or-bust spot for Smith-Schuster, which makes him incredibly tough to start in non-PPR leagues and no better than a flex in PPR. But at least his dancing skills are on point.
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The line wants us to believe: New York will find a way to score a couple of touchdowns. New York's 17-point implied total is the lowest of the week (even lower than the Jets!). But over the past four weeks they've scored 19, 17, 7 and 6 points. Now they're on the road against a feisty Ravens defense, depleted as it may be. I think the oddsmakers are a little light on the points and could have gotten away with minus-13.5, but since I have no faith in the Giants, I am forced to side with the Ravens.
I don't think Gallman has a snowball's chance to get 15 touches. The Ravens offense should get on top of the Giants defense pretty quickly and change the tenor of how Jason Garrett's offense will operate. The Giants found themselves down 10 points at halftime and gave Gallman four carries in the third quarter and two snaps (no carries) in the fourth quarter. Muddying things even worse was seeing beloved Fantasy hero Alfred Morris get more touches late in the game. So Gallman could actually be stuck splitting work more than we anticipated in a matchup that figures to be tough on the Giants' run game. Baltimore got punched up by the Browns two weeks ago but has otherwise held rival backs to 10 or fewer non-PPR points in Weeks 12, 13 and 15.
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Engram has been exhausting. He clearly has explosive talent, and the Giants have done a better job of letting him use it lately (average depth of target of 9.0-plus yards in three of four games), but it's not resulting in strong Fantasy numbers. He's scored twice this season (one rushing) and has been north of 60 yards in three games (and over 70 yards once!). It's unfathomable. Here comes a matchup with a Ravens defense that has held tight ends to five or fewer non-PPR points in six of its past seven games. That should make you nervous to start him in non-PPR formats. His ceiling of maybe five receptions gives him a shot at 10 PPR points, which isn't exactly great either.
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The line wants us to believe: The Bengals win last Monday means zilch. Ooh, this line is designed to play on the Bengals' win over the Steelers! Who in their right mind would take a lousy Texans defense and give eight points?! Well, the answer is me. I would take a lousy Texans defense riddled with below-average players against an equally lousy Bengals offense. Deshaun Watson won't turn the ball over like Ben Roethlisberger did last week. The right side to be on is the hard-to-believe side with the home squad.
Bernard was left for dead by the Fantasy universe, then went off in the most improbable matchup and now is back on our radars. He didn't have many productive runs, just a lot of volume and a pair of red-zone opportunities against tackle-deficient defenders. Hoping for a repeat performance would normally be dangerous, but this is the Texans run defense we're talking about. Houston has allowed a touchdown to a running back in nine straight games, 5.6 yards per rush in those nine games and 15-plus non-PPR points to a running back in each of its past four. Granted, these were pretty good running backs who spiked Houston; Bernard wasn't even remotely considered "pretty good" before last week. Bernard figures to play just under 70% of the snaps for the Bengals, as he has in recent games when he hasn't fumbled, but not much else is guaranteed when it comes to role (Samaje Perine and Trayveon Williams started possessions in both halves last week and Perine would spell Bernard at times). Coming off his first matchup with at least 15 touches in six weeks, Bernard is a risky Fantasy play in spite of the obvious matchup.
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When Will Fuller was suspended, the hope was that Cooks would operate as the Texans' No. 1 receiver. Welp, it hasn't happened. In two games without Fuller (and both against the Colts), Cooks has seen four deep targets (one caught for 16 yards), two of which were end-zone targets (one was uncatchable) and no red-zone targets. He's also matched or fallen just behind Keke Coutee in total targets in each game. So much for the No. 1 treatment. The silver lining is Cooks' PPR floor of 11 points in each of his past three, so if he could finally turn up in the end zone, it should mean a good game. Good news: Cincy has allowed at least one score to a receiver in 11 of its past 13 matchups. Cooks is a better flex in PPR and a better sit in non-PPR.
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The line wants us to believe: This is Jacksonville's Super Bowl. Why else would they be only 7.5-point underdogs? Chicago has been (finally) dominating offensively with smart play by Mitchell Trubisky and David Montgomery plowing behind a healthy-ish O-line, but the Bears have one win by more than seven points all season (vs. Houston two weeks ago). I'm thinking the oddsmakers are thinking the Jaguars will give Chicago a fight. So I'll follow the logic and take the points. And maybe I'm cuckoo, but I think there's a chance the Jaguars win.
The Bears have done a great job of putting Trubisky in position to make easy throws, and it's been helped by an improved offensive line. Would you believe he's completed over 70% of his tosses in his past three matchups? Better yet, would you believe he's hit at least 7.9 yards per pass attempt in each game?! It's all true. Now he gets the granddaddy matchup of them all against a depleted, inexperienced and no-matter-how-you-slice-it terrible Jaguars pass defense. Each of the past eight quarterbacks to play the Jags have hit 20 Fantasy points, and six of them have amassed at least 22 points. Trubisky has potential to hit 22 points on his passing prowess alone, with his added stats on the ground giving him upside for an even bigger game. Since becoming the Bears starter in Week 12, he's been game-scripted out of a high-volume passing day once ... and it was last week. It's the only argument against Trubisky, and even if he does see limited pass attempts, it's worth noting that all five of the quarterbacks with under 30 pass attempts against this sorry defense have still managed north of 20 Fantasy points.
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Mooney's been playing nearly every down for the Bears since Week 7, but he's caught at least four passes in two of three games and has earned a touchdown in two straight (both in the red zone). With an average target depth below 9.0 in every game since Week 11, he's been more of a short- and mid-range threat than a deep-ball guy. But that doesn't mean he's not a yards-after-catch threat, and that's an area where he's done well over the past three weeks (10.8 per game, fourth-best in football). The Jaguars' sloppy secondary has given up touchdowns to multiple receivers in the same game twice in its past three. Consider Mooney among your DFS sleepers.
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The line wants us to believe: Neither team's recent results are indicative of who they are. Carolina's lost eight of its past nine and are just 2.5-point underdogs?! Washington is coming off its first loss in five weeks and are just 2.5-point favorites?! This line is screwy. I think the oddsmakers want you to take Washington, which means they think the Panthers will hang with them. Carolina is capable of blowing past their implied 21-point total. But even against the Panthers defense, I'm not certain Washington can hit their implied 23.5 point total. Weird line, weird game, cautiously take the points.
Last week's five-target collection against the Packers was painful to watch. It was his sixth game out of seven with an average target depth below 11.0 yards, and it featured just one red-zone target, bringing his total on the season to 11. The last three times Anderson had six or fewer targets in a game, he rebounded with at least eight the following week. That would be nice to see in a matchup against a Washington squad that's yielded over 160 yards to wideouts in five of its past six games (with six touchdowns). Anderson should keep his PPR-only status for another week, albeit in a flex capacity. You shouldn't want much to do with him in non-PPR.
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The line wants us to believe: The Falcons are about to get blown out. Fun fact: The Chiefs haven't blown out anybody since the Jets (obvs) in Week 8. And the Falcons have been blown out once since Week 5. I don't think anyone realizes this. But if the oddsmakers had put the line at minus-7 or something, people would flock to take Kansas City. That of course makes sense. I'm not sure I believe the Chiefs defense will hold the Falcons to 21 or fewer points -- they should do a little bit better than that. With sweat pouring down my face and my hands trembling, I'll take the points.
Ryan played outstanding football in the first half last week, completing 74% of his throws for 235 yards and two scores. That changed in the second half when the Bucs started getting pressure on him, forcing an ugly finish (61% rate, 121 yards, one touchdown, sacked three times). When his O-line fails him, his numbers especially suffer. Will it happen against the Chiefs? Kansas City ranks 14th in pass rush pressure rate, 17th in quarterback hurry rate and 21st in sacks with 25. Not exactly a dangerous unit. Then again, neither were the Chargers or Raiders, and Ryan had unfortunate stats against them. By now Fantasy managers should know he's a risky start if he's playing without Julio Jones. That's still the case this week, even if the Chiefs have let up 25-plus Fantasy points to five of the past six quarterbacks they've faced.
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The line wants us to believe: The Broncos aren't as bad as their recent 1-3 record suggests. Seriously, how can you trust the Chargers to beat anyone by more than three points? Las Vegas pushed them deep into overtime with a backup quarterback and an awful defense last week. Atlanta stayed close with them the week before in a game neither team played well in. Even the Jets gave them a game in Week 11. And Denver's looked terrible, but it's been against really good teams. It's risky, but I think the Broncos keep it close, if not win.
Rushing to start Fant after missing what was his second-best game of the season seems a little reactionary. Fant found 11 targets, including eight in the first half. If you start him, you're hoping he's exactly as involved. I'm not saying he won't be involved, but eight targets in 30 minutes? Seems like a lot to ask. The better reason to roll with Fant is because tight ends versus the Chargers have scored in six of eight games. In fact, there's only been five games all season where a tight end hasn't caught a score on the Chargers. That includes Week 8 when the Broncos hit pay dirt with ... Albert Okwuegbunam. Fant had seven catches for 47 yards on nine targets in that matchup, and given the Chargers' season-long problems covering the position, it wouldn't be shocking if he came close to those totals again this week.
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The line wants us to believe: Jalen Hurts is hot and the Cowboys are not. It's been nothing but praise and hype for Hurts, who has earned much of it. But it's not like the Cowboys don't deserve a little love after winning back-to-back games. Three in a row seems like too much to ask from them. Dallas losing a starter at each level of the defense, including linebacker Leighton Vander Esch, is going to be tough to overcome against a Philly team with multiple running threats.
I wouldn't talk you out of starting Hurts if I could. It's true that at least 23% of his throws in each of his past three games have been off target. And it's true that one, if not two, of his Week 15 touchdowns were helped by phenomenal moves by his receivers. But Hurts was more aggressive with the football last week (13 deep targets before three Hail Mary attempts to end the game) and was just as willing to take off when the pass rush got to him as the week before. That combination of downfield throwing and rushing at any time is what has made elite Fantasy quarterbacks. Dallas' pass defense hasn't been good all season, but its pass rush looked very good against the 49ers last week. Don't be surprised if Hurts has a big day running the ball with fewer passing stats.
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Goedert was really close to having a good game last week -- Hurts threw consecutive late-game passes for his big tight end while he was in the end zone. Both were on target, too. But that's really all we can say about Goedert that's in his favor. Hurts' willingness to let it rip downfield benefitted Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery last week and should eventually help Jalen Reagor, but Goedert's been much more of a short-area guy for Hurts. And he's not getting quite the target share he had with Carson Wentz. He should have a safe PPR floor of around eight points, making him tolerable in that format. I wouldn't use him in a half- or non-PPR format.
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The line wants us to believe: I think the oddsmakers could have gotten away with giving Seattle another point or two. They might not be the explosive offense that brought tons of Fantasy points, but they're finding ways to win on the strength of their run game and -- surprisingly -- defense. The Rams run game is a question mark and their offensive line got completely exposed last week. I think this is a tough bounce-back spot for the Rams.
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