One of the biggest mysteries heading into the 2017 season is how the Packers will distribute touches in the backfield. We know Ty Montgomery is a full-time running back, but we don't think he's a "workhorse". We also know the team added a trio of running backs in the draft, with Jamaal Williams seemingly being the perfect complement to Montgomery's style.
What may matter as much is how much the Packers run the ball. We'll get into that more below, but whether last year's 374 carries were an outlier or a trend will determine the value of the running backs as much as anything.
What we don't have to worry about is the passing game, at least not with Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson. But we've never see Davante Adams and Randall Cobb be good in the same season. We've also never seen them with a tight end as talented as Martellus Bennett. There's plenty to figure out in Green Bay, so let's start with ranking their Fantasy assets.
*Rankings expressed below are in terms of expected Fantasy points. This is a part of our actual Fantasy Football rankings but not a direct correlation to my rankings. Things like injury risk, upside, etc. factor into rankings but they're not being talked about here. This is simply an expectation as the team is currently constructed.
| Player | Expected FP | Position Rank | Expected PPR FP | Position Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 183 | #6 | 273 | #5 | |
| 387.4 | #2 | 387.4 | #2 | |
| 154.4 | #16 | 214.4 | #14 | |
| 133.8 | #23 | 196.8 | #30 | |
| 97.6 | #12 | 153.6 | #10 | |
| 111 | #46 | 181 | #41 | |
| 98.7 | #38 | 105.7 | #49 |
Breaking down the touches
As I mentioned above, Aaron Rodgers threw the ball more in 2016 than he had in any season in his NFL career. And not just a little more. Rodgers' 620 attempts were 41 more than he's ever thrown. It was only the second time in his career he'd thrown it more than 560 times. You can probably guess by now, but I believe there's regression coming.
If we drop Rodgers down to 580 pass attempts (would still be the second most of his career), it's fair to assume that about 200 of those are going to the running backs and tight ends. I would expect Montgomery and Bennett to get the lion's share of those. What's more interesting is where those 380 targets to the receivers go. More specifically, where the non-Jordy Nelson targets go. Let's take a look at the expectations:
| Packers touches | ||||||||
| Player | RuSHARE | RuATT | ReSHARE | TGT | REC | TD | ||
| Ty Montgomery | 39% | 154 | 13% | 80 | 60 | 7 | ||
| Jamaal Williams | 39% | 154 | 2% | 10 | 6 | 5 | ||
| Jordy Nelson | 0% | 0 | 24% | 140 | 90 | 10 | ||
| Davante Adams | 0% | 0 | 18% | 110 | 66 | 8 | ||
| Randall Cobb | 3% | 10 | 16% | 98 | 68 | 6 | ||
| Martellus Bennett | 0% | 0 | 13% | 80 | 56 | 6 | ||
Of note:
- If anything, this feels a little generous to Williams, I wouldn't expect this to be a 50/50 split Week 1. I'm anticipating he'll have to earn carries.
- It looks strange to expect carries from a receiver, but Cobb has had at least 10 in four of the past five seasons.
- Touchdown distribution is exceptionally difficult, but we know the Packers are going to score a bunch of them. We've seen each of these pass catchers have ridiculous touchdown performances in the past three seasons. One (or two) of them will likely do it again.
The Leftovers
There's obviously not a lot of room for production in Green Bay if everyone meets expectations, but that's not the way things generally work. And the Packers are not without depth.
Aaron Jones will compete for playing time right away at running back, and there are some who think he's a better option than Jamaal Williams. Jones isn't someone worth drafting unless we start hearing some serious rumblings in camp, but he's definitely someone to keep an eye on.
At receiver, Geronimo Allison is probably the most interesting to me. Randall Cobb really fell off last year. He's not old enough for us to think it was a permanent fall, but if he struggles again early this season or gets hurt, Allison would be someone to watch on the waiver wire.
Finally, Richard Rodgers is still in Green Bay. He has been a useful No. 2 TE in the past in Fantasy and has the rapport with Aaron Rodgers to make an impact immediately should Martellus Bennett suffer an injury.
