Justin Jefferson's hamstring injury is going to cost him quite a bit of time moving forward, as we learned Tuesday morning the star Vikings wide receiver will be placed on IR. That means he'll miss at least four weeks while recovering from the injury -- but potentially longer. It's an injury that is obviously a huge blow to Fantasy Football players, as well as the Vikings offense, so let's dive into what it means for both.
It's a tremendous blow for the Vikings offense, which relies on Jefferson more than just about any team relies on any player. Rookie Jordan Addison has an opportunity to step up and become the team's No. 1 option, while KJ Osborn also figures to see a bit more volume. If Addison proves up to the challenge, he could be a huge beneficiary in this, but it seems pretty clear Kirk Cousins' Fantasy value just took a major hit – he's more in the QB2 range moving forward, while Addison is a risky WR2, and Osborn is more like a fringe WR3/4 in my eyes.
The Fantasy Football part of this is easier: You won't have Jefferson available for at least the Vikings' next four games, as the earliest he can return is Week 10 against the Saints. However, that assumes a clean recovery, and as we learned with Cooper Kupp's hamstring injury in the preseason, we can't necessarily pencil that in. Hamstring injuries are tricky things; Kupp aggravated the injury in his first couple of practices back after being off for nearly a month and ultimately ended up missing the first four weeks weeks before he was able to play.
That doesn't mean the same thing will happen with Jefferson, but as Adam Schefter pointed out Tuesday, the fact that Jefferson didn't get a long-term contract this offseason could make him more likely to be cautious about his injury – especially on a 1-4 team that just lost its best player. While Jefferson is out for at least four weeks, it might end up being even longer than that.There's no replacing a player like Jefferson, unless you've got a spare Tyreek Hill or Ja'Marr Chase lying around. So you'll probably need to look to the trade market for help at wide receiver, and I'd be looking to buy low-ish one of the underperforming high-end wideouts and hope they turn things around and help you plug that leak.
Here would be the five wide receivers I would prioritize as buy-low candidates to help replace Jefferson in trade discussions, but if you have other offers you're considering, be sure to check out Heath Cummings' Week 6 projections at SportsLine to get a sense of how much each player is projected to score this week in your particular format.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys
I wish I felt more confident in Lamb as a buy-low candidate, but this new-look Cowboys offense has been pretty dispiriting. His target share is down to 21.2% from 28% last season, while his average depth of target is down from 10.1 to 8.1. Fewer targets, fewer high-value, downfield targets is a bad combination, but Lamb is also one of the most talented wide receivers in the league, married to a very good QB, so I have to think they'll get going before long.
Davante Adams, WR, Raiders
Adams has only had one game with fewer than 10 PPR points this season, so I'm not sure how "low" you're really buying here. But his worst game came in Week 5, and he acknowledged his shoulder injury limited him, so there could be a window here. I still view him as a top-12 WR, though there's some risk with his injury.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles
I'm not sure if Smith is a "buy-low" so much as he's just been on the low end of his pretty standard variance in two of the past three games. The Eagles are a great offense, but it's a low-volume passing game with two other elite weapons, so there are always some days when the ball just doesn't flow to Smith; that's happened twice in the past three weeks, but the big weeks are coming too. If there's any kind of discount, pounce.
Chris Olave, WR, Saints
After putting up 302 yards in the first three games, Olave has just 16 over the past two, which makes him the perfect definition of a buy-low. His struggles have coincided with Derek Carr's shoulder injury, and the production should return as Carr gets closer to 100%. We've seen that duo produce huge numbers already, so I'm fulling willing to write off Olave's slide as a one-off.
Michael Pittman, WR, Colts
Pittman has had his two worst games of the season in the past two week, and his situation might be about to get a lot better for at least a few weeks. That's not a knock on Anthony Richardson, but Gardner Minshew is going to throw more than the more mobile Richardson, who might miss a month with a shoulder injury. That added volume resulted in 23 targets in the two games Minshew mostly played, and Pittman could be a must-start WR in PPR moving forward.
Of course, the problem with any trade is, you're dealing from depth at a time you just took a big blow. I looked at one of my rosters with Justin Jefferson, and while I do have Chris Godwin to slide into a starting spot to replace him, my bench just doesn't have anyone else available valuable enough to really make any kind of splash in trade.
Which means it's on to the waiver wire. Where, let's be honest, your chances of replacing Jefferson are even worse. There are guys like Josh Reynolds (59% rostered) and Josh Palmer (72%) who have decent roles in good offenses who can help you fill in, though I don't think there's a ton of upside there. I feel largely the same about KJ Osborn, who figures to see a bigger role in Jefferson's absence but has never earned targets at a high enough rate to feel great about; in four games with Adam Thielen sidelined in previous years, he averaged 11.4 PPR points, but on just 5.5 targets.
All three are fine plug-and-play options, but if you're shooting higher, I'd recommend the following three with more upside:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks
Smith-Njigba (56% rostered) is already playing a decent role, with 20 targets in his first four games despite missing Week 1 and part of training camp with a wrist injury. The hope here is he'll be one of those rookies who takes off after the bye week, and while the presence of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf complicates that plan, we've also seen him be the most productive receiver on a college team with both Olave and Garrett WIlson. He's the highest-upside option available in any number of leagues, and should be rostered in every league.
Quentin Johnston, WR, Chargers
The case for Johnston (54% rostered) is both the same as with JSN, and also a bit murkier -- because Johnston's limited role early on seemed to be more about him just not being as ready as needed, rather than coming off an injury. Even in the first game without Mike Williams, his snap share only ticked up to 51%. Still, Johnston is a first-round pick coming off a bye with the kind of skill set that should, in theory, make him a perfect replacement for Williams in the Chargers offense. He's even more of a long shot, but it's still a bet worth making.
Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs
Among players who have run at least 66 routes this season, none has been targeted more often than Rice (45% rostered), who has a target on 36% of his routes. He's also 11th in yards per route run. That's an incredibly exciting profile for a young player ... until you see that his route participation rate has peaked at 51% in Week 3 and dropped all the way to 24% in Week 5; there's a reason I had to add that 66-route qualifier here. Still, one of the most clear ways a young player can break out is by seeing an increase in playing time, and Rice is a clear candidate for that path. I don't know if it's going to happen in this Chiefs offense, but I think it makes sense to try to stash him in case it happens.
There's no easy answer to replacing a player like Jefferson, and even if Simth-Njigba, Johnston, and Rice hit, none of them are likely to give even 70% of what Jefferson would moving forward. But you're in a bad spot, and you have to find a way to make the most of it. Hopefully this helps.