Week 11 Start 'Em and Sit 'Em
Alfred Morris faces a beautiful matchup as he comes off a bye week. Our Jamey Eisenberg thinks he's a must start in Week 11 and explains why in his latest Start 'Em and Sit 'Em.
Editor's note: FanDuel.com is hosting a one-week $2.5 million Fantasy Football contest for Week 11. It's only $25 to join and first prize is $300,000. Starts Sunday, November 16th at 1 p.m. ET. Enter now to play with Jamey.
It's Week 11, so by now you should know the players on your roster you can count on and who is more of a gamble. But not everything is a certainty, even with the studs.
We have three new quarterbacks in Arizona (Drew Stanton), Houston (Ryan Mallett) and St. Louis (Shaun Hill), and hopefully those receivers won't be impacted in a negative way, at least for the Cardinals and Texans. Does anyone start a Rams receiver?
We hope to find out -- ideally before kickoff -- if the Broncos will lean on C.J. Anderson or Montee Ball in a plus matchup against the Rams. We also hope to have Arian Foster (groin) active, otherwise Alfred Blue could be a sneaky sleeper against the Browns.
The Fantasy playoffs are approaching, and everyone needs a win to solidify your place in the standings. Hopefully some of the questions you have about your roster can be answered here.
Alfred Morris was finally starting to hit his stride prior to the bye in Week 10, so we hope he comes back strong this week. We're confident he'll stay hot given his matchup against Tampa Bay.
Morris had a three-game stretch of miserable performances against Seattle, Arizona and Tennessee from Week 5 to Week 7, but he rebounded well with 14 Fantasy points at Dallas in Week 8 and then 22 points at Minnesota in Week 9. He has yet to rush for 100 yards, but in the four games where he's scored touchdowns he has at least 14 Fantasy points.
Coach Jay Gruden has stuck with Morris all year, and he had at least 18 carries in each of the past three games. He also has three catches over that span, and anything he can add as a receiver is a huge bonus.
Tampa Bay has allowed seven rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs this year, including Steven Jackson last week. Nine running backs have reached double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league against the Buccaneers, and Morris had 21 carries for 113 yards and a touchdown against Tampa Bay in 2012.
We hope a repeat performance is possible, but we'd settle for a typical good Morris game this year of about 73 rushing yards and a touchdown. He has the chance for a Top 10 finish this week, and we would start Morris with confidence in all leagues.
The last time we saw Rivers was in Week 9 at Miami when he was on the wrong end of an embarrassing loss, and he finished with minus-3 Fantasy points, which was easily his worst performance of the year. He gets the chance for an easy rebound game this week against the Raiders. Rivers had 31 Fantasy points against Oakland in Week 6, and he has multiple touchdowns in three of his past four meetings with the Raiders. Oakland has allowed four quarterbacks to score at least 20 Fantasy points this year, so Rivers should do well coming off his bye.
There's a developing trend with Roethlisberger that we hope he can break this week. He's been great at home with at least 18 Fantasy points in all five outings, including three games of 28 points or more. But in five road games, he's scored 19 Fantasy points or less in each game, including last week's dud at the Jets with 15 points. He only has five touchdowns on the road, but we're counting on him to thrive this week on Monday night. Only three quarterbacks have scored at least 20 Fantasy points against the Titans, but two have come in Tennessee with Brian Hoyer in Week 5 and Blake Bortles in Week 6. Roethlisberger has faced the Titans each of the past three years and has averaged 22 Fantasy points over that span. We hope he reaches that average, which would be his best game on the road this season.
Ryan was good, not great, in Week 10 at Tampa Bay. He had 16 Fantasy points with 219 passing yards and one touchdown, but he could have scored at least one more if not for an underthrown pass to Julio Jones or a drop by Devin Hester alone in the end zone. Ryan has a good history against the Panthers with at least 280 passing yards and two touchdowns in four of his past five meetings. In two of his past three games at Carolina, Ryan has at least 320 passing yards and two touchdowns. And, as we've seen all season, the Panthers can't stop anyone, with seven quarterbacks scoring at least 19 Fantasy points and five with 22 or more points.
We're not ready to give up on Cutler just yet despite his performance of late. He has one game with more than 10 Fantasy points in his past three outings, and he looked lost at Green Bay in Week 10. Now, Lambeau Field has been a house of horrors for him, and returning home should be a boost of confidence, as well as facing the Vikings. Minnesota has allowed four quarterbacks to score at least 19 Fantasy points, including Drew Brees, Rodgers and Kyle Orton throwing multiple touchdowns with the Vikings on the road. Cutler has only played three home games this season and scored at least 20 Fantasy points in two of them, and last year he had 23 Fantasy points against Minnesota at home. He also had 20 Fantasy points against Mike Zimmer's defense when he was the defensive coordinator with the Bengals last year, so there's reason for hope this week.
We don't want to get overexcited with Sanchez after one start, which came against the struggling Panthers at home, but he looked solid in Chip Kelly's offense with 332 passing yards and two touchdowns. He just missed a third touchdown when Brent Celek was ruled down at the 1-yard line, so we hope that carries over to this week. The Packers just wrecked the Bears passing game in Green Bay, but they have allowed five quarterback groups to score at least 19 Fantasy points, including two at home with Geno Smith in Week 2 and the combination of Cam Newton and Derek Anderson in Week 7. The Eagles could be chasing points in this game, which should mean plenty of pass attempts for Sanchez, and Philadelphia has attempted 37 or more passes seven times this year. There could be some mistakes with Sanchez on the road, but we'll still trust in him as a starting option based on his potential in this system.
SleepersRobert Griffin III (vs. TB): Tampa has yet to stop a quarterback on the road.
Colin Kaepernick (at NYG): This is a defense Kaepernick should crush.
Eli Manning (vs. SF): Manning should continue to play well at home.
Wilson's Fantasy outing in Week 10 against the Giants at home was saved by his rushing ability, as he had 107 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He was miserable throwing the ball, and he's had fewer than 200 passing yards for three games in a row and four of his past five. He has one game with more than 18 Fantasy points over that span, and he faces a tough matchup this week on the road. The Chiefs haven't allowed a quarterback to score more than 18 Fantasy points since Week 2, including matchups with Ryan Tannehill, Tom Brady, Kaepernick and Rivers. Wilson will need a rebound game throwing the ball this week or a lot of running to end up as a good Fantasy option. We're not expecting that to happen, so sit him if you can.
This could be a rough week for Tannehill with starting left tackle Branden Albert (knee) out against a Bills defense that leads the NFL in sacks. Buffalo held Tannehill to 14 Fantasy points in Week 2, and the Bills have held their past three opposing quarterbacks to a combined 23 points. Brady, Rivers and Cutler are the only quarterbacks to score more than 15 Fantasy points against Buffalo, and Tannehill just had 12 points at Detroit in Week 10. He's dealing with shoulder and ankle injuries coming into this matchup on a short week with the Thursday night game, and it appears like Tannehill's best performances are behind him.
That Dalton meltdown last Thursday against the Browns at home was hard to watch -- unless you're a Browns fan, of course. Dalton was 10-of-33 passing for 86 yards with three interceptions for minus-3 Fantasy points, and he hasn't scored 20 Fantasy points since Week 6 with just three games of 20 or more points this year. This is another tough matchup for him at New Orleans, and the Saints have allowed just Rodgers to score at least 20 Fantasy points in their past five outings, including matchups with Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton and Kaepernick. We hope Dalton can get the ball to A.J. Green and Mohamed Sanu, but his Fantasy outlook is bleak. We'd keep him reserved until he starts to show some improvement, which we hope will happen soon.
The Dolphins gave up 21 Fantasy points against Stafford in Week 10, but he was the first quarterback to score more than 12 points in the past four games against Miami, including matchups with Cutler and Rivers. Stafford, Rodgers and Alex Smith are the only quarterbacks to reach 20 Fantasy points against the Dolphins, who have seven interceptions in their past four outings. The Dolphins are among the league leaders in sacks and should be able to harass Orton, who has three interceptions in five starts. I like Sammy Watkins this week, but I would stay away from Orton in this matchup.
McCown should be OK in two-quarterback leagues, and I like his weapons this week with Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. But don't be surprised if McCown has a few mistakes, especially on the road. He has an interception in all four of the games he's appeared in, with five total. He did have 23 Fantasy points in Week 10 against the Falcons, but that was a great matchup at home. The Redskins haven't allowed a quarterback to score more than 18 Fantasy points in their past three games, and they are getting healthy with the return of defensive lineman Barry Cofield. I have McCown projected for 18 Fantasy points this week, which would be an average game and likely keep him outside of the Top 12 quarterbacks in this scoring period.
I don't care that it's a great matchup for Newton at home against the Falcons, who have allowed multiple touchdowns to their past three opposing quarterbacks. Newton looks terrible, his offensive line is a mess and now there is a question about his health with a potential right foot injury. He's been sacked at least three times in each of his past four games with 19 sacks over that span, and Atlanta had four sacks against Tampa Bay in Week 10. Newton could come out and light up the Falcons, as he's averaged 25 Fantasy points against them in his past six meetings. But he has just two games this year with more than 20 Fantasy points and nothing above 16 points in his past four games. He's just having a down year, and it's hard to count on a great matchup saving him this week.
We hope the bye week didn't slow down Bradshaw, who comes into this game with at least seven Fantasy points in eight of nine games and double digits in six outings. He continues to share playing time with Trent Richardson, but this should be a week where Bradshaw gets more work in a potential shootout. The Patriots have struggled with running backs all season with 11 touchdowns allowed and eight reaching double digits in Fantasy points. Running backs who catch the ball have had success against New England with five scoring six touchdowns and four getting at least 10 Fantasy points on their receiving totals alone. Bradshaw has six receiving touchdowns this year, so this is a favorable situation for him to succeed.
Mathews is expected to return this week after being out since Week 3 with a knee injury, and it's a great matchup for him to get back on the field. The Raiders are among the worst teams against opposing running backs with 12 touchdowns allowed and nine scoring double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league. Branden Oliver started at Oakland in Week 6 with Mathews out and had 26 carries for 101 yards and a touchdown and four catches for 23 yards, and Mathews could have a similar outing if San Diego gives him enough work. Mathews feasted on the Raiders last year at home with 25 carries for 99 yards and a touchdown and three catches for 20 yards. We're glad Mathews is back, and Oliver will return to a complementary role as the backup.
For just the second time this season, the 49ers gave Gore 20-plus carries, and he responded with 81 yards and a touchdown in Week 10 at the Saints. He's had 18-plus carries just three times this year, and each time he's reached double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league. He's typically struggled on the road, averaging just three Fantasy points a game prior to last week, but we're expecting another heavy workload in a great matchup, which helps his cause. The Giants allow the most Fantasy points to opposing running backs with 11 touchdowns and eight reaching double digits in Fantasy points. The Seahawks just had three running backs combine for 243 rushing yards and four touchdowns in Week 10, so Gore and Carlos Hyde (sleeper alert) should be in line for a good day.
We'll stick with another old running back here with Jackson, who has played great the past two weeks and should make it three in a row. He had 18 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown against Detroit in London in Week 8 and then 16 carries for 81 yards and a touchdown at Tampa Bay in Week 10. Both games were outdoors, which is encouraging, and he should stay hot for a third week in a row. The Panthers have allowed 14 touchdowns to opposing running backs, including two in Week 10 when LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles scored, and eight have reached double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league. Jackson seems refreshed the past two games, so we hope he can close the season strong, especially with a quality outing this week.
Matt Asiata (sleeper alert) is worth starting here also, and this could be the final time McKinnon and Asiata get significant work with Adrian Peterson possibly coming back in Week 12. We hope they take advantage of the matchup against the Bears. Chicago has only allowed seven touchdowns to opposing running backs, and Jonas Gray has the best rushing game against the Bears this year with just 86 yards. Six running backs have scored double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league against Chicago, and we expect McKinnon to do a nice job with his total yards and Asiata finding the end zone. McKinnon has at least 80 total yards in four of his past six games, and Asiata just had three touchdowns against the Redskins in Week 9. They both should be productive this week coming off the bye.
SleepersShane Vereen (at IND): A potential shootout should bode well for Vereen.
C.J. Anderson (at STL): He could solidify his role with a strong game here.
Terrance West (vs. HOU): West and Ben Tate are worth starting this week.
Theo Riddick (at ARI): He plays well when Reggie Bush (ankle) is out.
Bishop Sankey (vs. PIT): This could end up as Sankey's best game of the year.
Bell has been a disappointment for most of this season with just three games with double digits in Fantasy points. He has only two games with more than 50 rushing yards and no more than 74 yards in a game this season, and he's combined for 12 Fantasy points in his past two games against Atlanta and Miami. This week, he faces a tough matchup against the Cardinals, who allow the second-fewest Fantasy points to running backs this year. Arizona has only allowed three running backs to reach double digits in Fantasy points with five touchdowns, but the Cardinals recently held McCoy to nine Fantasy points and DeMarco Murray to eight points. Bell should benefit if Bush is out, but that would likely help Riddick more than Bell based on his receiving skills.
Rainey might have to get his production as a receiver out of the backfield now that the Bucs are giving work to Charles Sims and Mike James, at least based on what happened in Week 10 against Atlanta. Rainey had six carries for 14 yards and four catches for 42 yards, Sims had eight carries for 23 yards and two catches for 17 yards and James had four carries for 16 yards. James was in on all the short-yardage chances, including near the goal line, so Rainey might not have the chance to score. And Sims should continue to see an increase in his workload as the future of this backfield. The Redskins have only allowed five touchdowns to running backs, but Asiata scored three of them in Week 9, so Rainey could really be looking at a minimal stat line. He's not worth the risk this week.
I like what Mason was able to do in Week 10 at Arizona with four catches for 33 yards, and he added 14 carries for 48 yards. As a flex option in deeper leagues, Mason would be OK if he was guaranteed seven Fantasy points in a standard format. He's been getting the work with at least 18 touches in three of the past four games, but he's combined for just 16 Fantasy points in his past three outings. He also lost a potential touchdown chance when Benny Cunningham scored against the Cardinals from the 3-yard line. The Broncos have allowed seven touchdowns to opposing running backs this year, but only four have reached double digits in Fantasy points and just one since Week 5. The Rams are going to Shaun Hill at quarterback over Austin Davis, and maybe that can improve things on offense. But Mason remains just a stash candidate for now until he can start producing at a higher level.
If Rashad Jennings (knee) plays as expected then you know what to do with Williams. He will go to a reserve role and be touchdown dependent, and his Fantasy value will be limited. I put Williams here to talk about Jennings' outlook for this week, and I'd start him with confidence if he's back. The 49ers have allowed two running backs to score at least 13 Fantasy points in a standard league in their past three games, which coincided with Patrick Willis (toe) going down. Willis is out for the season, and Jennings had at least eight Fantasy points in three of his first four games. So keep an eye on what happens with Jennings, and he's worth starting in all leagues if healthy. Williams should be kept in reserve even if he starts, because a touchdown is the only thing that will help his value this week.
The highlights from Week 10 against Carolina will show Sproles scoring two touchdowns, which is great, but he really did little to help Fantasy owners in that game. He had one carry for an 8-yard touchdown and one catch for 13 yards to go with a 65-yard punt return for a score. Now, if you're in a league that rewards points for special teams, Sproles was a star. But in standard formats he was worth just seven points, and he scored eight points in PPR leagues. He hasn't scored double digits in Fantasy points since Week 2, and it's hard to count on him scoring offensive touchdowns to save his production. We expect he'll be involved this week with a potential shootout against the Packers, but he's always a risky option outdoors. I would only consider Sproles as a flex option in deeper leagues this week.
Miller has been great this season with six games with double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league and just two games with fewer than nine points. But he's dealing with a shoulder injury, and it impacted his performance in Week 10 at Detroit with four carries for 10 yards and one catch for minus-4 yards. He dealt with an ankle injury in Week 2 at Buffalo and was held to 11 carries for 46 yards and two catches for 7 yards, and the Bills could limit him again this week. Buffalo has allowed just four touchdowns to opposing running backs and four to reach double digits in Fantasy points. With the Dolphins reshuffling their offensive line with Branden Albert out, Miller could be in trouble. I would avoid him this week if possible based on his injured shoulder and the tough matchup.
We'll find out how the Texans do with the quarterback change from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Mallett, and we hope Mallett doesn't hinder Hopkins' production. He has at least eight Fantasy points in seven games this season with three 100-yard outings and four touchdowns. He has either 95 receiving yards or a touchdown in each of his past three games with 31 targets over that span. This week, we anticipate Joe Haden matching up with Andre Johnson, meaning Hopkins will take on Buster Skrine. He was great last week against the Bengals, but that had more to do with Dalton then the Cincinnati receivers. Six No. 2 receivers have scored at least nine Fantasy points against the Browns this year, so Hopkins should do well, assuming there are no problems with his rapport with Mallet.
At some point Bryant is going to slow down, but until that happens you should continue to ride this wave of production. He has six touchdowns in his past four games, and he had his best outing in Week 10 at the Jets with four catches for 143 yards and one touchdown. The Titans will likely use Jason McCourty to shadow Antonio Brown, so Bryant could have a field day opposite Blidi Wreh-Wilson. There have been eight receivers to reach double digits in Fantasy points against Tennessee this year with six touchdowns allowed, and three No. 2 receivers (Pierre Garcon, Hopkins and Torrey Smith) have scored at least nine points against the Titans in their past three games. Bryant had a season-high eight targets against the Jets, so we hope Roethlisberger continues to feed his ever-improving rookie receiver.
Like Bryant, you should stick with Evans while he's hot, and he comes into this game with 14 catches for 249 yards and three touchdowns in his past two games on 20 targets. He didn't skip a beat with the quarterback change from Mike Glennon to McCown with his performance against the Falcons in Week 10 (seven catches for 125 yards and a touchdown), and Evans actually has at least 11 Fantasy points in four of his past five games. Evans has surpassed Vincent Jackson as the No. 1 receiver in Tampa Bay, and the Redskins have allowed the opposing No. 1 option to either gain 90 receiving yards or score a touchdown in five of eight games. Jackson should be considered a high-end No. 3 receiver in standard leagues and a No. 2 option in PPR formats, but Evans is a must-start option heading into Week 11.
Jackson should continue his standout season this week against the Buccaneers, and he comes into this matchup with at least 13 Fantasy points in five of his past seven games. He has actually had a 100-yard game with three different quarterbacks (Griffin, Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy), but we hope he stays with Griffin for the remainder of the season. This is a good matchup for Jackson since the Bucs could be without cornerback Alterraun Verner (hamstring), who missed Week 10 against the Falcons. With Verner out, Julio Jones had eight catches for 119 yards, and Roddy White had six catches for 72 yards and a touchdown. Tampa Bay has allowed 14 touchdowns to opposing receivers and nine have reached double digits in Fantasy points. Jackson should be started in all leagues this week coming off his bye.
The stat sheet will tell you Beckham's best game was Week 9 against the Colts with eight catches for 156 yards on 11 targets, but he was impressive at Seattle in Week 10. He spent a good portion of his day opposite Richard Sherman, and he finished with seven catches for 108 yards on nine targets, including a beautiful catch on a double move past Sherman on the right sideline. He has double digits in Fantasy points in three games in a row, and the 49ers have allowed six touchdowns to opposing receivers in the past three games. Eli Manning is leaning on Beckham with 27 targets in his past three outings, and we like the way he's played despite not being active until Week 5. Consider Beckham a high-end No. 2 receiver in all leagues this week.
SleepersJohn Brown (vs. DET): He has five touchdowns in four home games.
Brandin Cooks (vs. CIN): He's scored in each of his past two home games.
Anquan Boldin (at NYG): He has 50 Fantasy points in his past four games.
Jordan Matthews (at GB): Sanchez could be turning Matthews into a star.
Malcom Floyd (vs. OAK): He's scored four times in the past five vs. Oakland.
Johnson seems happy to have Mallett starting, and we'll find out how they do from this point forward. Johnson certainly can't get any worse this season with just one touchdown and one game with double digits in Fantasy points. He reached a new low in Week 9 against the Eagles with two catches for 12 yards on seven targets, and he's been outplayed by Hopkins for most of the year. We hope Mallett can improve things for Johnson, but this could be a tough week to trust him if he's lined up opposite Haden. Last week, Haden (along with some help from Dalton) helped limit Green to three catches for 23 yards, and he's been playing well for most of the season. Keep an eye on how Johnson does with Mallett, but he should be reserved in most standard leagues. I would still start Johnson as a No. 3 receiver in PPR formats.
You typically want to start receivers who are playing with great quarterbacks, and at times this season Wayne has performed well with Andrew Luck. He scored a touchdown in his last game in Week 9 at the Giants with four catches for 70 yards on 10 targets, but that was just his second game with a touchdown and double digits in Fantasy points. Wayne has five games this season with seven Fantasy points or less, and the Patriots will likely make it tough on him to succeed this week. New England has allowed just six touchdowns to opposing receivers and eight to reach double digits in Fantasy points. T.Y. Hilton should be started in all leagues, and we like Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener to both have productive games. But Wayne should be considered a No. 3 Fantasy receiver at best.
Crabtree would have been a disaster in Week 10 at the Saints if not for a 51-yard reception late in the fourth quarter on a fourth-down play where Kaepernick bought time with his legs and made the throw down the field. He finished with three catches for 62 yards on eight targets, and Crabtree now has six Fantasy points or less in five of his past six games. The 62 yards in Week 10 was his best outing since Week 3, and he has yet to reach 85 receiving yards in a game this season. The Giants are beat up in the secondary, so Crabtree could show up and play well. But based on his recent track record and lack of production, he might not be worth the risk. Boldin is the lone 49ers receiver to trust heading into this game.
Colston is becoming a non-factor for the Saints, and it's time to give up on him as a starting option. He had two catches for 36 yards on four targets in Week 10 against the 49ers and now has just nine catches for 121 yards and no touchdowns in his past three games on 12 targets. He has one game with double digits in Fantasy points on the season and only one touchdown. The Bengals have only allowed four receivers to score five touchdowns this year and five to reach double digits in Fantasy points. We have no faith in Colston right now, and apparently Drew Brees doesn't either. He has a lot to prove before Fantasy owners can trust him again.
Baldwin started out playing well when Percy Harvin was traded prior to Week 7. He had seven catches for 123 yards and a touchdown against the Rams and then six catches for 61 yards against Carolina. But in his past two games, Baldwin has been limited to nine catches for 69 yards. He only has one touchdown on the season and one game with double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league. I would still use him as a No. 3 receiver in PPR leagues, but owners in standard formats can pass on Baldwin in this matchup. The Chiefs have allowed seven touchdowns to opposing receivers and seven to reach double digits in Fantasy points. But Baldwin is not playing at a high enough level to trust, and the Chiefs should be able to limit his production.
Fitzgerald has been great at home of late with at least 11 Fantasy points in each of his past three outings, including nine catches for 112 yards on 10 targets against the Rams in Week 10. That bodes well for him this week. What hurts Fitzgerald has been his production with Stanton, who takes over for the injured Carson Palmer (knee). In the three previous starts with Stanton when Palmer was out with the shoulder injury, Fitzgerald combined for 11 Fantasy points against the Giants, 49ers and Broncos. He had 24 targets in those three games, but he failed to top 60 yards in any outing. This week, he also has to deal with a tough opponent since the Lions allow the fewest Fantasy points to opposing receivers. Mike Wallace scored against Detroit last week with five catches for 51 yards, but the Lions have allowed just four touchdowns to opposing receivers and only five to reach double digits in Fantasy points. We hope Stanton doesn't ruin Fitzgerald's season, but he's a risky option this week, as is Michael Floyd. Brown should do OK because he and Stanton seem to have a good rapport, but he's just a No. 3 receiver at best this week.
Let's hope the bye in Week 10 won't stop Allen from scoring touchdowns. He has three in his past three games, and he's found the end zone in seven games this season, including three of four home outings. The Patriots have been vulnerable against tight ends this year with four scoring touchdowns and five reaching at least nine Fantasy points, including four in the past four games. Allen only has five games with double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league despite all the touchdowns, but he should continue his breakout season this week in this matchup at home.
Two things could help Kelce a lot this week in his matchup with the Seahawks. The first is Anthony Fasano (knee) is banged up, and if he's out that should mean increased reps and targets for Kelce. And the Seahawks have been awful against tight ends this season with 10 touchdowns allowed, which is second only to the Bears. The last time Kelce had a matchup this enticing was Week 9 against the Jets, and he finished with four catches for 67 yards and a touchdown. I might consider Kelce a Top 5 Fantasy tight end this week if Fasano is out.
Seferian-Jenkins is worth starting this week if you're looking for a tight end streamer. He has been playing well of late and has a favorable matchup against the Redskins. He's scored a touchdown in two of his past three games, and in Week 10 against the Falcons he had season highs in targets (eight) and catches (five). The Redskins have allowed seven touchdowns to opposing tight ends and four have reached double digits in Fantasy points. It's risky to trust Seferian-Jenkins at this point in the season, but we hope McCown continues to look his way and the production will follow.
SleepersKyle Rudolph (at CHI): If he plays as expected he should be great vs. Chicago.
Timothy Wright (at IND): Indy has allowed six touchdowns to tight ends.
Coby Fleener (vs. NE): He and Allen have scored in the same game three times.
I like Clay in PPR leagues because he has 12 catches for 110 yards on 17 targets in his past two games. He also had seven catches for 31 yards at Buffalo in Week 2. While Clay sees a lot of attention in the red zone -- he's tied with Martellus Bennett and Julius Thomas for the most red-zone targets (15) among tight ends -- he has just two touchdowns to show for it. In fact, he's just the No. 19 tight end for Fantasy points scored in the red zone with 14. Thomas, by comparison, has 69 Fantasy points in the red zone. The Bills come into this game having allowed just two touchdowns to tight ends, so Clay might not score in this matchup. I hope for another seven-catch outing like we got last week and in the first meeting against Buffalo, but I wouldn't expect more than six or seven Fantasy points in a standard league.
Most of the Steelers were a disappointment in the Week 10 loss at the Jets, and Miller might have pushed Fantasy owners to dump him for the final time. He was held to three catches for 29 yards on three targets and now has just two games this season with double digits in Fantasy points, both at home. He's just not involved enough to be relevant with eight of 10 games with six targets or less. The Titans have allowed five touchdowns to opposing tight ends, but only Clay Harbor in Week 6 has reached double digits in Fantasy points. I'd love to see Miller snap out of his poor play on the road and see more action, but he's too risky to trust based on his overall level of lackluster play.
I looked into trading a tight end this week in the leagues where I own Rob Gronkowski and picked up Mychal Rivera. I was surprised to see how many people still own and even start Ertz, who has been non-existent for most of the season, especially of late. He is being started in 31 percent of leagues on CBSSports.com, but he has just two games this season with double digits in Fantasy points and one since Week 1. In his past two games, Ertz has two catches for 21 yards on five targets, and he was outplayed by Brent Celek in Week 10 against Carolina with five catches for 116 yards on six targets. Ertz has minimal upside at this point in the season, and you can't risk starting him against the Packers this week.
Rivera comes into this game on a tear the past three weeks with 21 catches for 185 yards and three touchdowns against Cleveland, Seattle and Denver. He's scored at least eight Fantasy points in all three games, but he could be derailed in this matchup. Rivera did nothing in Week 6 against the Chargers with no catches on three targets. San Diego has been good against opposing tight ends with only two touchdowns allowed and Clay scoring double digits in Fantasy points in Week 9. They haven't faced a gauntlet of elite tight ends, but they held Thomas to two catches for 23 yards on six targets and Kelce to four catches for 33 yards on four targets. Rivera could easily have the best game against San Diego this season, especially with some garbage-time production if the Raiders are chasing points. But he's due for a letdown game, and don't be surprised if that happens this week on the road.
The Bears come into this game allowing the most Fantasy points to opposing kickers, which makes Walsh a great streaming option. Chicago has allowed nine field goals and 16 extra points in the past four games, and four kickers have scored at least 11 Fantasy points against the Bears this year. Walsh has three games this season with at least 12 Fantasy points, and two of them have been on the road. He was great against the Bears in 2013 with six field goals and five extra points in two meetings, including three field goals and three extra points at Chicago.
SleepersKai Forbath (vs. TB): Tampa has allowed 14 field goals in the past five games.
Dan Carpenter (at MIA): He made five field goals vs. Miami in Week 2.
Nick Novak (vs. OAK): Six kickers have multiple field goals vs. Oakland this year.
Catanzaro finally missed his first field goal of the season in Week 10 against the Rams, and he's been struggling of late as a Fantasy option. He hasn't had multiple field goals since Week 6 against Washington, which was the last time he reached double digits in Fantasy points. He has been at seven points or less for four games in a row, and the Lions come into this game having allowed just three kickers to reach double digits in Fantasy points. Four kickers have made multiple field goals against Detroit this year, including Caleb Sturgis in Week 10, but I'd avoid Catanzaro with Palmer now out with this matchup. The good news is Catanzaro had two games with 13 Fantasy points when Palmer was out earlier this season, but he's tailed off since then and isn't worth using this week.
The Raiders have been good for opposing DST units for every team but one -- the Chargers in Week 6. San Diego is the lone team that failed to score at least 11 Fantasy points in a standard league. That was the first game for interim coach Tony Sparano, and the Raiders were coming off a bye. But lately, the Raiders have been the Raiders again. Derek Carr has five interceptions in his past three games, and the team has scored more than 17 points just once in the past four outings. The Chargers could be getting back Melvin Ingram (hip) and Manti Te'o (foot), which would definitely help the defense in this matchup. The Chargers DST should be good for two weeks with the Rams on the schedule in Week 12.
SleepersSaints (vs. CIN): If bad Andy Dalton shows up the Saints DST will thrive.
Bills (at MIA): Buffalo leads the NFL in sacks and Miami has a new left tackle.
Browns (vs. HOU): Mallet faces a Cleveland team with 10 picks since Week 6.
The Eagles DST was great last week against the Panthers with 33 Fantasy points in a standard league thanks to two touchdowns, three interceptions and nine sacks. But they should come crashing down this week at the Packers. Green Bay has allowed one team to reach double digits in Fantasy points since Week 3, which was 12 points for the Saints in Week 8. Rodgers has just three interceptions on the season, and the Packers have scored at least 38 points in four of the past six games. The Eagles DST has also combined for just 12 Fantasy points in their past two road games at Arizona and at Houston, so you can drop them for this matchup.
Full Disclosure from Week 10
It was a bad scoring period for quarterbacks in Week 10 when Matt Ryan, who was our Start of the Week, had just 16 Fantasy points in a standard league but finished as a Top 10 option. So while he certainly didn't live up to my expectations, he didn't crush you by comparison to most of the start-worthy quarterbacks last week.
Our good start suggestions, including sleepers, were Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo, Mark Sanchez and Michael Vick at quarterback. We had Justin Forsett, Denard Robinson, Mark Ingram, Steven Jackson, Terrance West and Jonathan Stewart at running back. We recommended Martavis Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, Torrey Smith, Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks and Odell Beckham at receiver. And we said Mychal Rivera at tight end.
Our bad start recommendations included Jay Cutler, Jeremy Hill and Mohamed Sanu, as the Bengals were terrible against the Browns. And we said to sit Ben Tate, Frank Gore and Anquan Boldin, as the 49ers played better than expected at New Orleans.
We also said to sit three players in Vernon Davis, Terrance Williams and Andy Dalton, who combined to score minus-3 Fantasy points. While I expected Dalton to struggle, I didn't think he would be that horrific.
|Player||Fantasy Pts. (proj.)||Fantasy Pts. (actual)||Pos. rank|
|Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons||23||16||10|
|Justin Forsett, RB, Ravens||11||23||2|
|Martavis Bryant, WR, Steelers||13||20||4|
|Denard Robinson, RB, Jaguars||13||17||4|
|Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers||6||0||33|
|Terrance Williams, WR, Cowboys||8||0||80|
|Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals||19||minus-3||28|
|Jay Cutler, QB, Bears||22||10||22|
|Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals||17||3||36|
|Mohamed Sanu, WR, Bengals||16||2||51|
|Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers||8||15||11|
|Frank Gore, RB, 49ers||7||14||9|
|Ben Tate, RB, Browns||5||11||14|
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