2018 Food City 500 odds, picks: Model says Kyle Busch falls short in NASCAR at Bristol

The 2018 NASCAR season rolls on at 1 p.m. ET Sunday with the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway. The start time was moved up an hour due to expected inclement weather. Pole-sitter Kyle Busch is the Vegas favorite at 9-4 odds, followed by Kyle Larson at 5-1 and Erik Jones at 8-1. They're the only three drivers getting better than 10-1 odds.

Before you make any bets or enter a daily fantasy NASCAR tournament on sites like DraftKings, you'll want to hear what the team at SportsLine has to say.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has a proven track record in multiple sports. It also powers McClure's DFS projections, which have led him to over $1 million in career winnings.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big racing events like this are in his blood, and his model completely nailed the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 last week, correctly calling Kyle Busch's win and Kevin Harvick's second-place finish. Anybody who followed those picks cashed in huge.

Now that the field for the 2018 Food City 500 is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

One driver the model absolutely loves for NASCAR at Bristol: Brad Keselowski, who is going off at 12-1.

Keselowski will start third in the 2018 Food City 500 and has four top-10 finishes this season. And he's had plenty of success at Bristol, winning there in 2011 and 2012 and finishing as the runner-up in 2014. McClure says he makes a serious run at the checkered flag. He's a driver you should be all over on Sunday.

A shocker: Kyle Busch, who starts the pole for the 2018 Food City 500 and is the Vegas favorite, doesn't take home the checkered flag.

Busch has been hot as of late, but the last time he started on the pole, in Atlanta earlier this season, he finished a disappointing seventh. He also took 25th in the Daytona 500 two months ago. In last year's Bristol spring race, Busch started seventh, but wound up in 35th. There are much better values than the 9-4 odds Busch is getting.

The model is also calling for a driver with odds even longer than Keselowski to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who bets on this long shot could strike it rich.

So who wins the 2018 Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway? And which long shot stuns NASCAR? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the top two finishers in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 last week.

Kyle Busch 9-4
Kyle Larson 5-1
Erik Jones 8-1
Kevin Harvick 15-1
Chase Elliott 10-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1 
Martin Truex Jr. 12-1
Joey Logano 12-1
Brad Keselowski 12-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
Clint Bowyer 20-1
Jimmie Johnson 25-1 

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