2019 Indy 500 odds, picks, projections: Proven model backing Helio Castroneves, fading Josef Newgarden

The 2019 Indianapolis 500, the biggest race of the IndyCar season, is set for 12:45 p.m. ET at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on Sunday. It's the 103rd running of this Memorial Day Weekend tradition as 33 top IndyCar drivers are set to converge on the 2.5-mile track with as many as 300,000 fans expected to pack the stands and the infield. The latest 2019 Indianapolis 500 odds have Will Power, the defending champion, as the favorite at 7-1. But eight different drivers have won the last eight Indy 500s, so there are plenty of other 2019 Indianapolis 500 contenders to consider such as Josef Newgarden (8-1), Alexander Rossi (8-1), Simon Pagenaud (8-1) and five other drivers going off at 14-1 or shorter odds, as well as plenty of huge long shots who will be looking to pull off the stunner. Before locking in any 2019 Indy 500 picks of your own for this massive race on Sunday, first be sure to see IndyCar predictions from the proven projection model over at SportsLine. 

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary computer model has a proven record in multiple sports. It takes factors such as recent result and track history into account to come up with most accurate IndyCar projections imaginable. And at the 2018 Indy 500, it correctly called five of the top 10 drivers, giving anybody who took its advice plenty of strong value selections.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks like Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Big racing events like the Indianapolis 500 are in his blood. Now that the 2019 Indy 500 grid is locked, his model has simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

One of the 2019 Indy 500 picks we'll give away: The model is fading Newgarden, one of the Vegas favorites at 8-1. The model has Newgarden finishing outside the top three despite coming into this race as the leader in IndyCar points on the season. 

Another shocker the model is predicting for the 2019 Indianapolis 500: Helio Castroneves makes a strong run at the title despite going off at 14-1 Indy 500 odds. The model says he'll finish higher than his odds imply, so he's a value pick you should be all over.

The 44-year old Brazilian driver has started an astonishing 252 IndyCar races in his career, and he'll be looking to make history at the 2019 Indy 500. He's won this event three times (2001, 2002, 2009). One more win would tie him with Rick Mears, Al Unser Sr. and A.J. Foyt for the most all-time. He had the seventh-fastest time (227.614 MPG) in Practice No. 8, so he looks to have the tools to make a strong run up the 2019 Indianapolis 500 leaderboard on Sunday. 

The model also says five other drivers with odds of 12-1 or longer makes a serious run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big. 

So who wins the 2019 Indianapolis 500? And which long shots stun IndyCar? Check out the current 2019 Indy 500 odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that has simulated this event 10,000 times and crushed its picks last year

Will Power 7-1
Simon Pagenaud 8-1
Josef Newgarden 8-1
Alexander Rossi 8-1
Ed Carpenter 12-1
Scott Dixon 12-1
Colton Herta 12-1
Spencer Pigot 12-1
Helio Castroneves 14-1
Marco Andretti 18-1
Sebastien Bourdais 20-1
Ryan Hunter-Reay 20-1
Ed Jones 20-1
Tony Kanaan 25-1
Graham Rahal 25-1
Takuma Sato 25-1
James Hinchcliffe 40-1
Conor Daly 40-1
Zach Veach 40-1

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