2019 Kentucky Derby odds, predictions: Expert who has nailed 9 Derby-Oaks Doubles reveals early picks

The prep races for the 2019 Kentucky Derby are in the books. War of Will took down the Risen Star Stakes shortly after the Super Bowl and is going off at 18-1 Kentucky Derby odds to come away with a victory at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 4. Last month, Tacitus won the Tampa Bay Derby, capturing 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. Now, the Bill Mott-trained colt is among the 2019 Kentucky Derby favorites at 10-1. At the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, By My Standards upset the field in the Louisiana Derby and is now going off at 30-1 odds for the Kentucky Derby 2019. The final Kentucky Derby prep race, the Arkansas Derby, saw the Richard Mandella-trained Omaha Beach beat Bob Baffert's Improbable and punch his ticket to Churchill Downs for the Run for the Roses as the 3-1 favorite. Six horses are listed at 2019 Kentucky Derby odds of 10-1 or lower as jockeys, trainers, and owners try to follow in the footsteps of last year's champion and Triple Crown winner, Justify. Before you make your 2019 Kentucky Derby picks, you should see what SportsLine's resident horse racing guru, Jody Demling, has to say.

A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling comes into the Kentucky Derby 2019 on a mind-blowing streak: He has hit the Derby-Oaks double at Churchill Downs nine of the last ten years. That means he held a ticket with the winners of the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks nine times in the last decade. 

The Derby is just part of a highly successful betting career for Demling, who also nailed his ninth Preakness winner in 14 years at Pimlico last May. He followed that up by predicting Justify's groundbreaking victory in the Belmont Stakes, as well as calling the winners of the Haskell Invitational, Pennsylvania Derby and Lecomte Stakes, just to name a few. He also hit last year's Arkansas Derby and Louisiana Derby.

Demling absolutely crushed this year's Pegasus World Cup, nailing the superfecta for a $678 payout on a $1 bet. He also hit the superfecta at the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and picked the winner of the Risen Star Stakes in February, War of Will. He also hit the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta at this year's Arkansas Derby, the final Kentucky Derby prep race. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.

Now, with the 2019 Kentucky Derby lineup taking shape, Demling is sharing his early picks at SportsLine. We can tell you Demling wants no part of Tacitus, one of the top Vegas favorites at 10-1 Kentucky Derby odds 2019. The Wood Memorial and Tampa Bay Derby champion comes from the barn of trainer Bill Mott, who has struggled when it comes to producing winners in Triple Crown races. 

Mott has never trained a Kentucky Derby or Preakness Stakes winner, and has just one win at the Belmont, which came from Drosselmeyer almost a decade ago. And while Tacitus has three career wins to his credit, only two of them were in graded stakes races, and he also settled for a disappointing fourth-place in a maiden special weight race at Belmont Park last October. Demling says Tacitus finishes well outside the top five in the 2019 Run for the Roses and say is not worth the 10-1 premium you'll need to pay for him. 

Instead, Demling is high on War of Will, a long shot at 18-1 Kentucky Derby odds. War of Will recorded his very first career win at Churchill Downs in a maiden special weight race last November. He followed that up with victories in the Lecomte Stakes and Risen Star Stakes. Despite a disappointing ninth place finish in his last race at the Louisiana Derby where he lost his footing early, War of Will is still squarely on Demling's radar. 

"War of Will moved way up my board when trainer Mark Casse said he's back to himself and looks like he'll be ready for the Kentucky Derby," Demling told SportsLine. The bay-colored colt is capable of running on dirt and turf and could fly under the radar at the Kentucky Derby 2019 even though he's recorded multiple races and a victory at Churchill Downs.

Demling also loves a massive long shot who's heating up at just the right time for the fastest two minutes in sports. Anyone who backs this underdog could hit it big. 

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby? And what massive long shot does Demling say contends? Check out the latest Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's early picks for the Kentucky Derby.

Omaha Beach 3-1
Roadster 4-1
Game Winner 8-1
Improbable 8-1
Maximum Security 10-1
Tacitus 10-1
Vekoma 12-1
War of Will 18-1
Spinoff 25-1
Win Win Win 25-1
Anothertwistafate 30-1
By My Standards 30-1
Code of Honor 30-1
Cutting Humor 30-1
Haikal 30-1
Plus Que Parfait 40-1
Tax 40-1
Long Range Toddy 50-1

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