Bob Baffert will make his return to Churchill Downs for the 2025 Kentucky Derby after a three-year ban. Baffert has two horses in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, Rodriguez (12-1) and Citizen Bull (20-1), so he could record a history-making seventh garland of roses at the Kentucky Derby 2025 on Saturday. Rodriguez could be in some trouble before the race even begins if recent Kentucky Derby trends hold true. Outside of Authentic's win in September 2020, none of the previous six Kentucky Derby winners were coming off a victory.
Citizen Bull finished fourth at the Santa Anita Derby, so could the bigger underdog of Baffert's two horses have the best chance at coming through for Kentucky Derby betting? Excluding Authentic's win in October 2020, here are the most recent winners of May Kentucky Derby's and where they finished in the lead-up:
- 2024: Mystik Dan (3rd, Arkansas Derby)
- 2023: Mage (2nd, Florida Derby)
- 2022: Rich Strike (3rd, Jeff Ruby Steaks)
- 2021: Mandaloun (6th, Louisiana Derby)
- 2019: Country House (3rd, Arkansas Derby)
If this trend continues, Journalism, Sandman, Rodriguez, Luxor Cafe, Burnham Square, Tiztastic, Admire Daytona, American Promise, and Final Gambit would all be excluded from potential 2025 Kentucky Derby picks.
SportsLine expert Jody Demling is willing to buck the trends in his search for top horses in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Now that post positions have been drawn, he breaks down the lineup and makes $162 worth of Win-Place-Show, Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta bets that you could use on horse racing apps like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET.
Demling is a fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, He has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years! He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including 2023 when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta. He also hit the Preakness in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks could be way up. See Jody's full Kentucky Derby analysis only at SportsLine.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby surprises
One surprise is that he's NOT picking Journalism (3-1) to win in his final leaderboard, even though Demling believes is a deserving favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field. Journalism is the son of Curlin, who finished third in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, and despite boasting impressive progeny, Curlin has yet to sire a horse who has won the Run for the Roses. To this point, Journalism has only raced in Southern California, so he'll have to adjust to different weather, new conditions and an unfamiliar track at Churchill Downs. The horse's connections are also on the inexperienced side since his trainer has just one prior Derby starter, while his jockey has only two prior mounts. None of those previous starts resulted in better than a ninth-place finish.
He's also fading Sandman for Kentucky Derby betting, even though he's one of the top favorites at 6-1. Sandman is trained by Mark Casse, who hasn't started a horse in the Kentucky Derby in four years. In addition, Casse is winless with 10 starters in eight editions of the Run for the Roses. Sandman's top Equibase Speed Figure of 104 is good but not great as seven others in the Kentucky Derby field have at least a 104 speed. When you add in that Sandman's sire, Tapit, placed a disappointing ninth at the 2004 Kentucky Derby, there are plenty of reasons to bypass Sandman with 2025 Kentucky Derby bets.
Instead, Demling is all over several double-digit longshots, including a 30-1 choice he's including in his superfecta! Who is it? Find out here.
Plus, which of Bob Baffert's horses is his best shot for a seventh official Kentucky Derby victory? Is a horse which qualified outside of the U.S. worth a bet like Forever Young in 2024 (3rd in the Derby)? Which longshot 20-1 closer is worth keeping an eye on? Find out here.
Use promo code "JODY" for 60 percent off your first three months of SportsLine. Join SportsLine today and access Jody's full analysis of Kentucky Derby 151.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, futures, horses, post positions
| Post | Horse | Odds | Projection |
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Neoequos | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Rodriguez | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | American Promise | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Journalism | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Burnham Square | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | Grande | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | East Avenue | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | Publisher | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Tiztastic | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Render Judgement | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Coal Battle | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Sandman | 6-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Sovereignty | 5-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
