Analyzing the Atlanta Hawks’ wins total bet for the 2024-25 Season

Plus, a look at some team specials DraftKings is offering

The Atlanta Hawks over/under this season comes in at a crisp 36.5 wins at DraftKings Sportsbook. The casual logic here is sequential. They won 36 games in 2023-24 and return this campaign without borderline All-Star guard Dejounte Murray. Losing Murray means less than 36 wins this season, right?

Well, not really. A closer look at the roster indicates that this logic may not hold up. As currently constructed, the Hawks’ roster is quite compelling and has the ability cruise past 36.5 wins this season. 

So, should we run to our favorite online sportsbooks to place this bet? Well, not so fast. It depends on what management does, as there are a few trades that may occur this season. Teams are calling about Clint Capela. De’Andre Hunter, the 81st highest-paid player in the league this season, probably is available on the cheap. And if Trae Young starts the campaign on a tear, it may be hard for general manager Landry Fields to resist a trade offer, thereby triggering a legitimate tanking in pursuit of generational prospect Cooper Flagg. 

Trae, Unlocked

Let’s assume management stays put and doesn’t make any downgrading trades. Young was – and still is – an elite, relatively-winning point guard before Murray showed up. He famously led the Hawks to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2020-21. But more importantly, Young played better last season when Murray was sitting, as he was +19 with Murray on the bench.

The other guards

Who replaces Murray? A combination of 3-point gunner Bogdan Bogdanović and lockdown defender Dyson Daniels. Both players are an upgrade from Murray’s iffy defense last season, and both complement Young much better. Daniels’ shooting is a concern, but given his ability in all other areas (dribbling, cutting, attacking the rim, length and defense), we expect the 21-year-old to continue to improve.

A deeper roster

As for the rest of the roster, things are looking great. Hunter may be overpaid and brittle, but he is an elite defender who played an average of 62 games the last two seasons and shot 39% from 3-point range in 2023-24. 

Larry Nance Jr. needs no introduction as a winning veteran who can soak up minutes and catch lobs from Young. Capela can be penciled in for a reliable 25-30 minutes per game. Onyeka Okongwu and his eye-popping metrics continue to improve. 

But the real prize? No, not #1 draft pick Zaccharie Risacher. 

We are talking about the 20th overall pick of the 2021 NBA draft, Jalen Johnson. He had a breakout season in 2023-24, averaging 16 points and 8.7 rebounds while adding 1.2 steals, 0.8 blocks and a 51% shooting percentage. His 3-point shooting improved from 29% the previous season to 36%. It would not be surprising to see him make the leap as the clear No. 2 option behind Young.

It should be noted that the Hawks’ depth took a hit when former first-round pick A.J. Griffin announced that he is leaving the game of basketball to pursue a career as a minister.

To tank or not to tank

And so, Atlanta’s current roster should produce 40 or more wins this season. But will management encourage them to do so? It seems that part of why Young wasn’t traded this offseason is because no teams made any offers of value. And it is possible that he may start off hot this season, thereby lifting his value and causing desperate GMs around the league to start calling Hawks management. 

There aren’t too many tea leaves out there. The hiring of yet another Golden State Warriors executive in Onsi Saleh, who joins the Hawks as assistant GM, is interesting but inconclusive. More likely, we can look to head coach Quin Snyder, who previously turned the Utah Jazz into contenders and then resigned before their rebuild in the summer of 2022. That sounds like a coach with assurances from management that winning now is a priority.

Additional Atlanta Hawks Team Specials Bets for 2024/2025

DraftKings is offering a few compelling team specials here. As we analyze each one, we are operating with the projection that the Hawks probably won’t make the playoffs but should be winning around 40 games.

Trae Young to average 28+ PPG + Hawks to make the playoffs (+320, DraftKings)

Young has scored 28 points per game over an entire season twice in his career already, so that’s feasible. But the playoffs? At just +320? This feels like a stretch.

Trae Young to average 28+ PPG + Hawks to win 40+ games (+350, DraftKings)

Now we’re talking. Young will have the ball more this season, and at +350 odds for the Hawks to clear 40 wins? Better odds on this one.

Trae Young to average 3.5+ 3-pointers made per game + Hawks to win 40+ games (+450, DraftKings)

Young poured in 3.2 3-pointers per game last season at a 37.3% clip. Though we like the Hawks at 40+ wins, penciling in Young at over 3.5 3-pointers per game gives us pause. He certainly can do it. But will he? Snyder had point guard Donovan Mitchell launching 9.8 3-pointers per game in their last season together in Utah, which makes this Young bet special a bit more feasible. At +450, it’s not a bad bet.

Trae Young to average 28+ PPG + Jalen Johnson to average 18+ PPG + Hawks to make the playoffs (+500, DraftKings)

This is where you want to be careful. Young and Johnson can and should both exceed these respective scoring numbers. But in a parlay bet with making the playoffs? We’ll need more than +500 to take the leap of faith here.

Jalen Johnson to average 18+ PPG + Hawks to win the Southeast Division (+1400, DraftKings)

The Southeast Division also includes the Charlotte Hornets, Miami Heat, Orlando Magic and Washington Wizards. At +1400 at DraftKings, it’s compelling, but with the Heat and Magic, there does not seem to be a road for the Hawks to usurp either of them, let alone both.

Trae Young to lead the league in APG + Hawks to win the Eastern Conference (+3000, DraftKings)

There is one reason to even discuss this bet: management. Young leading the league in assists is totally feasible. The Hawks winning the Eastern Conference? Not as much. 

However, and that’s a strong however, there is a world in which Johnson ascends to full All-Star status, Daniels’ shots start falling, Hunter stays healthy and locked in, and the Hawks start the season 15-10. If that is the case, does management start taking phone calls regarding Risacher? Will the team part with any of its six first-round draft picks? With unhappy superstars such as Jimmy Butler available this season, it is hard to rule out success for any team that is as asset-heavy as the Hawks.

Summary

Winning the Southeast Division or making the playoffs feels like a reach. But winning 40+ games? Bank on it. 

As for which add-on to go with winning 40 games? Young averaging 3.5+ 3-pointers per game is pushing it, as he never has done that before. But averaging 28 points? He has done that twice. And with more defenders around him this season, he may have to do it again.