Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 odds, picks 2018: Advanced computer model says Daniel Suarez surprises NASCAR

The 2018 NASCAR schedule rolls on Sunday at 2 p.m. ET with the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 in Atlanta. Rinnai 250 winner Kevin Harvick is the favorite at 4/1, followed by Kyle Larson and pole-sitter Kyle Busch at 9/2. Martin Truex, Jr. opened as a co-favorite before being relegated to the back of the starting grid. He's now going off at 7/1.

Before you make any bets or enter a daily fantasy NASCAR tournament on sites like DraftKings, you'll want to hear what the team at SportsLine has to say.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has a proven track record in multiple sports. It crushed its picks in golf majors last year and has produced profitable picks in MLB, NFL and other sports. It also powers McClure's DFS projections, which have led him to over $1 million in career winnings.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big racing events like this are in his blood, and his model already nailed two of the top five finishers in a wild Daytona 500 to open the year.

Now that the field for the 2018 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

One big surprise the model is calling for in the 2018 QuikTrip 500: Daniel Suarez, despite going off as a massive 50/1 long shot, makes a serious run at the title.

Suarez averaged a 19th-place finish in intermediate tracks during his rookie season. Despite a rough showing at last week's Daytona 500, Suarez will start No. 4 in Atlanta.

Suarez ran well in qualifying and, along with the rest of the Joe Gibbs racing team, he has been fast at Atlanta Motor Speedway. He's a driver who could pay off huge on Sunday.

Another shocker: Martin Truex, Jr. barely sniffs the top 10 despite still being one of the co-favorites. He failed inspection three times, lost his crew chief, and will start at the back of the pack. Avoid him like the plague on Sunday, especially getting just 7/1 odds.

Also, three additional drivers with odds of 25/1 or longer are positioning themselves to make a serious run at the title. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the 2018 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500? And what long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the updated odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that nailed two of the top five finishers at Daytona.

Kevin Harvick 4/1
Kyle Larson 9/2
Kyle Busch 9/2
Martin Truex Jr. 7/1
Denny Hamlin 10/1
Chase Elliott 12/1
Brad Keselowski 15/1
Jimmie Johnson 15/1
Joey Logano 18/1
Clint Bowyer 20/1
Kurt Busch 25/1
Ryan Blaney 25/1
Erik Jones 25/1

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