The post draw is always monumentally important in horse racing. In the history of the Kentucky Derby, there's only one stall that has never produced a winner. Classic Causeway has multiple graded-stakes wins, but he'll start from the winless No. 17 post at the 2022 Kentucky Derby on Saturday. Trainer Brian Lynch will hope that he can make the long trip around with traffic to become the horse that makes history when he goes to post with the 2022 Kentucky Derby field. Classic Causeway is 67-1 in the 2022 Kentucky Derby odds and he'll be surrounded by Brad Cox horses Cyberknife (14-1), Tawny Port (67-1) and Zozos (39-1) as he makes his break. Race favorites Taiba (5-1) and Epicenter (5-1) got far better draws with Taiba starting in the 12th stall, while Epicenter is in the third. The 2022 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. The 2022 Kentucky Derby date is Saturday, May 7. Before you make any Kentucky Derby 2022 predictions, you'll want to see what astute racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu's 2022 Kentucky Derby picks and analysis.
Few people in racing are as connected as Yu. An on-air host and reporter who has provided racing analysis for TVG, HRTV and the Breeders' Cup, Yu has spent a lifetime in racing. Prior to her television career, she worked for trainers Steve Asmussen and Ron Moquett. She also is married to Santa Anita-based trainer Ryan Hanson.
She also has tremendous handicapping chops. In the 2011 Kentucky Derby, she correctly tabbed Animal Kingdom to win at a hefty 21-1. In the 2017 Breeders' Cup, she nailed 11-1 long shot Wuheida to win the Filly and Mare Turf. Last year in a wide-open Kentucky Derby, she gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1.
Since joining SportsLine in November, her picks have cashed in six of 12 races, including the exacta in the Breeders' Cup Classic. On Friday, she nailed the 2022 Kentucky Oaks winner, Secret Oath. Anyone who has followed her is way up.
Now, Yu has handicapped the 2022 Kentucky Derby odds, made her picks and constructed her bets. Click here to see them.
Top 2022 Kentucky Derby predictions, expert analysis
One surprise: Yu is fading Messier, even though he is one of the top 2022 Kentucky Derby favorites at 7-1. In fact, Yu says Messier barely cracks the top 10. The three-year-old colt's speed declined over his Kentucky Derby prep races, with his Beyer Speed Figure dipping from 103 at the Robert B. Lewis Stakes on February 6 to 99 at the Santa Anita Derby two months later.
The Santa Anita Derby was also Messier's first race at 1 1/8 miles, and the added length resulted in the colt slowing down late and finishing runner-up to Kentucky Derby opponent Taiba. Yu believes the 1 1/4-mile track at Churchill Downs will cause Messier to slow down the stretch yet again despite being one of the 2022 Kentucky Derby favorites entering the race.
Yu has locked in her 2022 Kentucky Derby picks for Epicenter, one of the favorites at 3-1. Trained by North America's all-time winningest trainer, Steve Asmussen, Epicenter has four wins and one second in six career starts. His only off-the-board finish came in his career debut, when he finished sixth in a seven-furlong maiden race at Churchill Downs.
His last four starts have all come at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, where he won three of those starts. He has won his last two starts by more than five lengths combined. "If I have one knock on him, it would be that he hasn't been challenged lately, and I like a horse with guts to throw down," Yu told SportsLine.
Yu also has a strong read on Zandon, the co-favorite in the latest Kentucky Derby odds 2022 at 5-1. Trained by Chad Brown, Zandon finished in the money in all four of his prep races, including two victories. His last time out saw him win the Blue Grass Stakes in impressive fashion, as his Equibase Speed Figure of 107 ties for the highest among any of the 2022 Kentucky Derby horses. However, that race has historically not produced many Kentucky Derby winners since it's been over 30 years since a horse at Blue Grass then went on to win the Kentucky Derby.
Zandon's first three races were less than impressive, as he had speed figures of 93 in each, making pundits wonder if the 107 was an outlier. Yu also questions the horse's tactical speed since the time in his final three-eighths of a mile of his last prep race ranks just eighth among the 2022 Kentucky Derby field. However, Zandon drew the No. 10 post, which has produced the second-most Derby winners and is being ridden by Flavien Prat, who already has one Kentucky Derby win under his belt (2019).
How to make 2022 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Yu's top pick is an overlooked horse who has the "speed to press and has top connections." Yu is also high on an enormous long shot who is her "must-use-in-exotics horse." She said this colt "has shown race after race that he belongs in the Kentucky Derby." She is including these horses in her 2022 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She's sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.
Where do Messier, Taiba and Epicenter, and every other horse finish in the 2022 Kentucky Derby? And which enormous long shot is a must-back? Check out the Kentucky Derby odds 2022 below, then visit SportsLine to see Yu's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed last year's winner on Derby Day.
2022 Kentucky Derby odds, horses, post draw
| Program # | Horse | Odds | Projection |
| 1 | Mo Donegal | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Happy Jack | 21-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Epicenter | 5-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Summer is Tomorrow | 42-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | Smile Happy | 14-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Messier | 7-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Crown Pride | 17-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Charge It | 13-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Tiz the Bomb | 25-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | Zandon | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Pioneer of Medina | 47-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | Taiba | 5-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | Simplification | 40-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Barber Road | 40-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | White Abarrio | 11-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Cyberknife | 14-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Classic Causeway | 67-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Tawny Port | 67-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Zozos | 39-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Ethereal Road | 99-1 | SEE PICKS |
