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Lynx vs. Liberty WNBA Finals preview and best bets
What to look for as the league’s two best teams meet in a best-of-five series for the championship
A signature season for the WNBA concludes with an elite Finals matchup. The New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx had the top records in their respective conferences during the regular season and now face off in a best-of-five series.
The Lynx (30-10) reached the Finals on Tuesday with a deciding Game 5 victory against the Connecticut Sun, while the Liberty took four games to dethrone the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces in their semifinal series.
New York (32-8), the team Vegas beat in last year’s finals, are -275 favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook to break through and win their first title. The Liberty have six players returning from last year’s finals rotation, with their brightest stars being Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu. Minnesota, which is led by MVP runner-up Napheesa Collier, is +225 and dominated the regular-season series.
The first two games will be at Barclays Center in Brooklyn before moving on to the Target Center in Minneapolis. Below, you will find tips and best bets for WNBA Finals which are available to make at the best WNBA sportsbooks.
Minnesota to win series (+225, FanDuel)
Taking the Liberty to win the series at the current odds doesn’t present great value. Any bet on a straight-up winner should be on the Lynx, but it’s more than just the potential return on investment.
Minnesota won three out of the four meetings during the regular season — including the Commissioner’s Cup championship. The average margin of victory was almost 10 points and the Lynx averaged just over 88 points in those wins – above the 76.5-point average New York allowed to teams this season.
The key to the Lynx’s success has been in stopping the opposition. Minnesota has the second-best defensive rating this season behind Connecticut. Minnesota is the kind of team that can limit the Liberty’s scoring.
A $20 bet at +225 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook would result in a $45 payout.
Liberty to win series 3-2 (+280, DraftKings)
While value can’t be found going with the Liberty outright, selecting the series outcome is an alternative. Choosing the Liberty to sweep actually has better odds (+300) than thinking the Lynx can win at least one. New York has a 16-4 record at Barclays and playing on additional rest should work to its advantage in the initial two games.
The Lynx’s calling card hasn’t been as stout of late. Their defense is allowing an additional 11 points per 100 possessions in the postseason. And that margin is even greater on the road. Plus, the Liberty are by far the best offense they’ll have played.
However, Minnesota is far too good of a team – with talents like Collier and Courtney Williams – to be swept in three straight games. As often happens with so many series, being on the home floor will likely be a lift. It’s also not out of the realm for Minnesota to steal one in Brooklyn, while New York can certainly take a game in Minneapolis. This has all the makings of going the distance.
A $20 winning bet made at DraftKings Sportsbook at +280 odds would bring back a $76 payout.
Jonquel Jones to win series MVP (+3400, FanDuel)
It’s a very rare circumstance that this award is given to a player on the losing team. So if you like the Lynx to win the series, it’s almost a certainty Collier will be MVP. She is the clear No. 1 threat on offense – averaging 27.1 points during the postseason. Her current odds are +270 at FanDuel.
But how about if the Liberty win? That’s where it gets a bit trickier. Stewart (+110) and Ionescu (+200) are the clear favorites, and understandably so. The pair combined for a 40.7-point and a 13.4-rebound average over the first two playoff rounds. Of those two, Stewart is the better play. In the last meeting between these teams, she went for 38 points and 18 rebounds.
If you’re looking for something with longer odds, Jones is an ideal dark horse in this scenario. She’s the team’s third-leading scorer behind the two mentioned above – with 14.2 points per game in the regular season and 13.5 per contest in the postseason – as well as the Liberty’s top rebounder and shot blocker. She’ll likely be tasked with guarding Collier. And New York’s fate is likely to ride on neutralizing the Minnesota superstar.
A $20 winning wager at +3400 odds on FanDuel would result in a $520 payout.
Sabrina Ionescu to lead series in made 3-pointers (+160, FanDuel)
The Lynx shot a league-best 38% from behind the arc in the regular season. They feature two of the best in three-pointers made per game in Kayla McBride and Bridget Carlton, each of which have longer odds in this category.
While Ionescu is the favorite here, she’s the safer choice because of the volume of long-distance shots she’ll likely get. The 26-year-old has connected on 46.5 percent of her 3s in the postseason while also serving as the Liberty’s top scorer – averaging 20.7 points on 48.9% shooting in addition to 5.2 assists and 5.2 rebounds.
Ionescu was fourth in the league during the regular season in made 3-pointers (2.8) per game and third in attempts. After suffering a bit of a slump following the Olympics, she’s found her rhythm again and should have no issue adapting to this high-pressure situation.
A $20 winning bet at +160 odds on FanDuel would yield a $32 payout.