Seven drivers will be looking to join Kyle Busch in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs Championship 4 on Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway. Martin Truex Jr. holds the points lead and would clinch with a 56-point lead over a second-place winless driver when the checkered flag flies.
As always, a win for any of the drivers in the Round of 8 would ensure their spot at Homestead. In addition to Truex, Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin are hoping to earn their shot at a championship.
With all that being said, here are our picks as well as the latest odds for the second race in the Round of 8.
Winner: Jimmie Johnson
Picking the seven-time champion last week didn't work out for us, but we're sticking to our guns and going with Johnson again. After winning at Texas earlier this season, Johnson will be looking to build upon his record-seven wins at the track this weekend. Among active drivers, Johnson boasts the top driver rating (107.3), the second-best average finish (8.2) and the third-best average running position (10.3).
The No. 48 driver will start the race inside the top 10 and enters as the first driver below the cutline.
Contenders: Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin
It's no coincidence that we have these two rivals as our contenders this week. Hamlin will start the race second, which is the highest among all playoff drivers. The No. 11 driver is no stranger to the Lone Star State, having won two races at the track over the course of his career. Only Johnson and Kyle Busch are the other drivers to have won at the track. Hamlin was in position to win the race last week -- albeit after wrecking Chase Elliott -- and has proven he'll do anything to get to Homestead.
Would you like to see Chase Elliott retaliate against Denny Hamlin for the crash at Martinsville?
— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) October 30, 2017
Vote at https://t.co/PZ8unNneyY pic.twitter.com/UXy1Q9ktbJ
Then there's the 21-year-old, Elliott. He is coming off of an absolutely heartbreaking finish at Martinsville where it appeared he would earn his first career win. Things only got worse for the No. 24 team when they failed to pass pre-qualifying inspection, forcing them to start the race from the 33rd position.
But we've seen multiple times this season that the top drivers can climb from the back of the pack en route to memorable victories. Elliott does have a strong case going for him at Texas as well. He has placed in the top 10 in all three of his career starts at Texas, which brings him to an average finish of 6.0. He enters the race 26 points below the cutline.
Dale Earnhardt Jr., Elliott's Hendrick Motorsports teammate, made history at the track winning his first career race in 2000. It would be the perfect passing of the torch from teammate to teammate if Elliott can park it in Victory Lane for the first time on Sunday.
Spoiler: Kurt Busch
Still without a job for next season and out of the playoffs, Busch has everything and nothing to lose. His qualifying time was impressive to say the least. 200.915 mph was fast enough for the track record at Texas.
UNREAL.@KurtBusch lays down a new track record (200.915 mph) to win the #CoorsLightPole! pic.twitter.com/x0DsXI0DIf
— #NASCARPlayoffs (@NASCAR) November 3, 2017
Let's also not forget Busch won at the track in 2009 and boasts an average finish of 15.28. While he remains in negotiations for a 2018 contract, a win would absolutely help his cause. Look for the Round of 16 knockout to make some waves and open eyes on Sunday.
Odds to win the AAA Texas 500
Here are the betting odds for Sunday's race per Westgate Sportsbook:
- Martin Truex Jr. 2/1
- Kyle Busch 4/1
- Kevin Harvick 6/1
- Kyle Larson 6/1
- Chase Elliott 7/1
- Brad Keselowski 10/1
- Denny Hamlin 15/1
- Jimmie Johnson 15/1
- Ryan Blaney 18/1
- Matt Kenseth 20/1
- Erik Jones 30/1
- Clint Bowyer 40/1
- Kurt Busch 60/1
- Daniel Suarez 80/1
- Joey Logano 80/1
- Jamie McMurray 100/1
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 100/1
- Kasey Kahne 200/1
- Austin Dillon 300/1
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 300/1
- Paul Menard 300/1
- Ryan Newman 300/1
- Trevor Bayne 500/1
- Ty Dillon 500/1
- Chris Buescher 500/1
- AJ Allmendinger 1000/1
- Aric Almirola 1000/1
- Danica Patrick 1000/1
- Michael McDowell 5000/1
AAA Texas 500 starting lineup
- Kurt Busch
- Denny Hamlin
- Kevin Harvick
- Erik Jones
- Kyle Busch
- Daniel Suarez
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Ryan Blaney
- Jimmie Johnson
- Brad Keselowski
- Kyle Larson
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Jamie McMurray
- Danica Patrick
- Austin Dillon
- AJ Allmendinger
- Dale Earnhardt Jr.
- Aric Almirola
- Kasey Kahne
- Clint Bowyer
- Daniel Hemric
- Landon Cassill
- Michael McDowell
- David Ragan
- Ryan Newman
- Chris Buescher
- Ty Dillon
- Matt DiBenedetto
- Cole Whitt
- Joey Gase
- Ray Black II
- Jeffrey Earnhardt
- David Starr
- Chase Elliott
- Matt Kenseth
- Joey Logano
- Trevor Bayne
- Reed Sorenson
- Corey LaJoie
- Gray Gaulding
BOLD - indicates NASCAR Playoffs Round of 8 driver
2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs standings
POSITION | DRIVER | CAR # | POINTS | BEHIND | WINS |
1. | Martin Truex Jr. | 78 | 4117 | LEADER | 7 |
2. | Kyle Busch | 18 | 4100 | -17 | 5 |
3. | Brad Keselowski | 2 | 4079 | -38 | 3 |
4. | Kevin Harvick | 4 | 4053 | -64 | 1 |
5. | Jimmie Johnson | 48 | 4050 | -67 | 3 |
6. | Ryan Blaney | 21 | 4047 | -70 | 1 |
7. | Denny Hamlin | 11 | 4045 | -72 | 2 |
8. | Chase Elliott | 24 | 4027 | -90 | 0 |
How to watch the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series AAA Texas 500
Location: Texas Motor Speedway
Date: Sunday, Nov. 5
Time: 2 p.m. ET
Length: 334 laps/501 miles
Stage 1: Ends on lap 85
Stage 2: Ends on lap 170
Final stage: Scheduled for lap 334
TV: NBCSN
Live stream: NBC Sports App, Twitter