NFL player props: Bettors hop on Derrick Henry hype train

Learn which player props DraftKings bettors are flocking to for the 2024-25 NFL season

NFL quarterbacks already get most of the glory, most of the money, most of the endorsements and most of the fan love. So why wouldn’t they also get most of the attention in the 2024-25 NFL player props market?

That’s certainly the case at DraftKings — well, sort of. Yes, among the sportsbook’s top five most-bet NFL player props, three involve quarterbacks. However, quarterbacks do not appear in the top two.

So which players occupy those top two spots? Which positions do they play? And what specific props are bettors targeting?

NFL player props: A historical primer

Less than a decade ago, wagering on NFL player props was a niche activity confined solely to Nevada, the only state where widespread sports betting was legal at the time.

Then came a landmark U.S. Supreme Court ruling in May 2018 that lifted the federal ban on sports betting, turning the issue over to individual states. Since then, 37 states (plus Washington, D.C.) have joined Nevada in the sports betting game.

As the industry has exploded across the nation in the past six-plus years, so too has the popularity of NFL player props wagering. This popularity is directly linked to the vast NFL player props menu that is offered at most major North American sportsbooks.

That menu is particularly thick at this time of year, as bettors weigh in with their opinions on which players they believe will shine this season and who will fail. 

DraftKings is offering 11 different NFL player prop categories related to individual statistical achievements in the regular season. And within those 11 categories — which include everything from passing touchdowns and rushing yards to receptions and sacks — are dozens of individual player options.

Take, for instance, the Regular Season Passing Yards market, for which DraftKings established a predetermined season-long passing yardage number for 27 quarterbacks. Because there’s an over/under component tied to each quarterback’s projected yardage total, bettors have 54 different ways to wager on this one prop.

Throw in categories like QB milestones, position stat leaders and rookie stat leaders — all of which have their own submarkets — and there are thousands of NFL player prop choices at DraftKings.

NFL player props: Derrick Henry (Ravens) 10.5 rushing TDs (Over -110/Under -110)

Before departing for Baltimore in the offseason, Derrick Henry enjoyed nine incredibly productive seasons in the Titans backfield. The peak of this productivity: In 2020, the former Heisman Trophy winner became just the eighth player in NFL history to eclipse 2,000 rushing yards.

Henry also was a touchdown machine in Tennessee, carrying the pigskin across the goal line 90 times. The bruising-but-elusive running back has been consistent, too, having rushed for double-digit touchdowns in eight straight seasons (and counting). 

Only once during this eight-year stretch did Henry fail to tally at least 11 rushing TDs. (He landed on 10 in 2021.)

So why is Henry’s rushing touchdowns prop at DraftKings only 10.5? A lot of bettors asked the same question. No other NFL player prop at DraftKings has been more widely bet than Henry Over 10.5 rushing touchdowns.

However, there is good reason to think twice before investing in this player prop: Lamar Jackson.

The Ravens’ dual-threat quarterback will line up in front of Henry this season and just might decide to keep the ball to himself when Baltimore approaches the end zone — something Jackson has done a lot in his six-year NFL career (29 rushing TDs).

NFL player props: Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals) 1000.5 receiving yards (Over -110/Under -110)

There’s only one rookie who cracked the top five of DraftKings’ most-bet NFL player props. And that rookie is a receiver who just happens to be the offspring of a Hall of Fame wideout.

Taken No. 4 overall by the Cardinals in this year’s NFL Draft, Marvin Harrison Jr. is a bigger, faster version of his namesake father. His skills are so highly regarded that more than a few pundits have predicted he’ll outperform his dad, who racked up 1,102 receptions, more than 14,500 receiving yards and 128 touchdowns during his 13-year career with the Colts.

DraftKings customers who dabble in NFL player props believe Harrison’s NFL career will get off to a sensational start. Because the NFL player prop that has received the second-most action at DraftKings is Harrison Over 1000.5 receiving yards — even though the former Ohio State standout will be relying on a run-first quarterback with accuracy issues (Kyler Murray). 

The good news for Harrison and his supporters: In the past five seasons, at least one rookie wideout (and seven in all) has cleared 1,000 receiving yards.

NFL player props: Josh Allen (Bills) 3750.5 passing yards (Over -120/Under +100)

The first quarterback to land a spot among DraftKings’ most-bet NFL player props hails from the AFC, has a rocket for an arm, is dangerous with his legs and has led his team to the playoffs each of the last five years.

Oh, and a lot of bettors believe his rocket of an arm will do some serious damage this season.

Of course, we’re talking about Patrick Mahomes, right? Nope. It’s Bills quarterback Josh Allen.

A 2018 first-round pick, Allen embarks on his seventh NFL season having eclipsed 4,200 passing yards each of the last four years. Yet among the 28 quarterbacks DraftKings included in its regular-season passing yards prop, Allen’s total of 3750.5 only ranks 11th.

That number definitely seemed short to DraftKings’ bettors, who have hammered Allen Over 3750.5 passing yards to the point that it’s the sportsbook’s third most-bet player prop.

Pinpointing why DraftKings oddsmakers expect Allen to regress this season is not that difficult: Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, the Bills’ top two wideouts who collected a combined 1,929 receiving yards last year, have departed Buffalo.

As a result, Allen will be chucking the pigskin to these three primary receivers this year: Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel.

NFL player props: Aaron Rodgers (Jets) 26.5 passing touchdowns (Over +105/Under -125)

The last time Aaron Rodgers was on the field in a meaningful NFL game, he was being carted off after blowing out his Achilles tendon exactly four plays into his Jets career.

The good news for Jets fans is Rodgers appears to have fully recovered and appears to be highly motivated. The bad news? By the time the season kicks off, he’ll be less than three months shy of his 41st birthday.

In other words, just because Rodgers is healthy now doesn’t mean he’ll remain upright all season. That likely is a huge reason why DraftKings’ customers have pounded Rodgers Under 26.5 passing touchdowns. It’s the sportsbook’s fourth most-bet NFL player prop.

Beyond the health factor, there is also a question about Rodgers’ productivity. Sure, the four-time NFL MVP compiled a total of 85 touchdown passes in 2020 and 2021. But he only threw 26 in 2022, his final season in Green Bay. Also, in the three years prior to 2021, he threw 26, 25 and 16 (in seven games).

Finally, just two quarterbacks in Jets history have thrown more than 26 touchdown passes in a season: Ryan Fitzpatrick (31 in 2015) and Vinny Testaverde (29 in 1998).

NFL player props: Bryce Young (Panthers) 18.5 touchdown passes (Over -110/Under -110)

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Panthers quarterback Bryce Young had a miserable rookie season last year, completing 59.8% of his passes, throwing for fewer than 2,900 yards and finishing with nearly as many interceptions (10) as touchdown passes (11).

Young, who started 16 of 17 games, wasn’t the only reason Carolina finished an NFL-worst 2-15 last year,  but he was a significant reason. Even worse, he looked completely overwhelmed far more often than he looked in control.

So the fifth most-bet NFL player prop at DraftKings heading into the season is Young Under 18.5 passing touchdowns. Young would have to nearly double last year’s TD total for Under bettors to lose.

That seems unlikely, considering Young’s top three wideouts consist of an aging veteran with a combined 10 TD receptions the last two seasons (Adam Thielen); a former Steeler who has never caught more than eight touchdowns in a season (Diontae Johnson); and a fellow NFL sophomore who caught 43 passes in 15 games last year but never found the end zone (Jonathan Mingo).

Another thing to consider: If Young stumbles out of the blocks, he could get yanked in favor of his backup, veteran Andy Dalton. If that happens and Dalton plays well, Young won’t come close to throwing 19 touchdowns.