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Royals vs. Yankees: Odds, preview and best bets for ALDS Game 4
What to look for as the Yankees try and close it out on the road while the Royals look to extend the series
Giancarlo Stanton added to an impressive postseason resume with three hits in Game 3 of the ALDS – none bigger than a go-ahead home run in the eighth. That lead was preserved by an outstanding performance from the New York bullpen, which went 4.1 scoreless innings to give the Yankees a two-games-to-one edge with one more to play in Kansas City.
As the teams get set for Game 4 on Thursday, here are the current betting lines, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
| Team | Run line | Money line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | -1.5 (+105) | -155 | Over 7.5 (-118) |
| Kansas City Royals | +1.5 (-125) | +130 | Under 7.5 (-102) |
You can learn more about betting on baseball, including what “run line” means, in our MLB betting guide.
Former Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole will get the opportunity to close out the series, facing his Game 1 opponent Michael Wacha. Neither was particularly great in the opener at Yankee Stadium. Cole allowed three earned runs and seven hits in five-plus innings as New York got the 6-5 win. Wacha gave up three runs, four hits and three walks in over four innings.
Both veterans have plenty of postseason experience to build off of. Cole has a 3.05 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP over 109.1 innings, while Wacha’s history is a bit less impressive: a 5.36 ERA over 42.0 innings and nine appearances, although he was an LCS MVP with the Cardinals in 2013.
New York took the series opener by taking advantage of poor Royal pitching and the benefit of a close call at second base on a Jazz Chisholm Jr. stolen base attempt in the seventh. In a game that featured a postseason record five lead changes, the Yanks had the last one. Kansas City answered in Game 2 with a four-run fourth – initiated by a towering homer from Salvador Perez – which carried the Royals to a 4-2 victory.
The Yankees have enjoyed tremendous success against the Royals this season. Including this series, New York has won seven of its 10 meetings with Kansas City in 2024 with a run differential of +10.
Below, you will find tips and a best bet for this ALDS Game 4 which are available to make at the best online sportsbooks.
Lean on a star to break out
Stanton had his moment on Wednesday. It’s time for the other bold-faced names to have theirs.
Aaron Judge’s struggles in the playoffs have been well documented. He came into Kansas City having gone 1-for-7 to start this postseason. Those struggles continued Wednesday as he went 0-for-4. Dating back to 2017, he’s slashed .208/.311/.449 across 47 October contests. He also has the worst strikeout rate in MLB postseason history among hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, at 34.3%.
His history with Wacha – 1-for-18 in 21 times up – doesn’t suggest things will change for the soon-to-be AL MVP, even though the law of averages certainly says otherwise. The odds on Judge going deep Thursday are up to +285 on FanDuel.
Juan Soto went 3-for-5 in the Game 1 victory then 0-for-5 with three walks and two strikeouts over the next two games. Like Judge, the power hasn’t been there. But unlike his fellow Yankee power threat, there are glimpses that he will produce – and he’s shown it before on this stage. With the Nationals in 2019, he posted a 1.178 OPS with three home runs and seven RBIs in the World Series. He’s +470 on FanDuel to homer and +240 to get at least two hits.
As for the Royals’ top bat, Bobby Witt Jr. began the ALCS 0-for-10 with four strikeouts in New York before going 1-for-3 on Wednesday. He was the most productive hitter in the Wild Card Series against Baltimore, driving in two of the Royals’ three runs while maintaining his solid defense at shortstop.
He has two hits in six plate appearances versus Cole, but his splits clearly favor being at home. Witt slashed .382/.441/.676 with an OPS of 1.117, had more walks (32 to 25) and far fewer strikeouts (40 to 66) at Kauffman Stadium. FanDuel has Witt at -135 to record at least two total bases and +420 to homer.
Interestingly enough, the transition from Yankee Stadium to Kauffman actually benefits the hitters. According to Statcast’s park factors, K.C.’s home is fourth-friendliest for batters over the last three years. The Royals as a team had an OPS 62 points higher at Kauffman than on the road, thanks to their .741 mark at home and .679 on the road.
Best bet for Yankees vs. Royals: Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 strikeouts (+104, FanDuel)
Cole missed the first few months of the regular season with right elbow inflammation and dealt with calf problems in early September. While not being the dominant pitcher he was in 2023 or before, he did show glimpses of it over the course of his shortened year. In August, he allowed just six earned runs over five starts as the Yankees solidified themselves as AL East leaders.
But as one might expect with the arm injury he dealt with, he has not been as overpowering. His regular season strikeout per nine inning rate is 9.4, which was his lowest since 2017.
Game 1’s outing lasted 80 pitches – 42 of which were strikes, yet the Royals only swung at six of those. This is not an unusual pattern for the disciplined Kansas City lineup, with the second-fewest strikeouts per game (7.21) and the third-lowest strikeout rate (19.4%).
Two exceptions are purely based on one-on-one history against veterans. Tommy Pham has fanned 10 times in 29 at-bats while Hunter Renfroe has struck out eight times in 22 at-bats.
All this being said, those trends have probably factored into this low number. And the over has much better value than under, which has been juiced to -138. Even DraftKings has set the line at 4.5 with -155 odds on the over. Expect Royal bats to swing a bit more freely and Cole to be up to his big-game potential in a clinching scenario for six or seven Ks.