Top 5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers futures bets for the 2024 NFL season

Bettors may want to be wary of relying on the Bucs to produce in 2024.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished in a tie atop the NFC South a year ago, posting a 9-8 record and exceeding preseason expectations in the first campaign following Tom Brady’s retirement. The Buccaneers struck gold with the addition of Baker Mayfield under center, received breakout performances from key supporting pieces on both sides of the ball, and picked up a lopsided playoff victory over the Philadelphia Eagles before falling to the Detroit Lions in the Divisional Round. 

Following that intriguing season, the Buccaneers largely brought the band back from a roster standpoint. Mayfield, Mike Evans, Lavonte David, Antoine Winfield and others return on new deals, with Jordan Whitehead serving as a key arrival on defense to supplement the losses of Carlton Davis and Shaq Barrett. 

The Buccaneers are not the preseason betting favorites in the division at most sportsbooks, but Tampa Bay enters the 2024 season with an over/under win total of 7.5 victories and with Super Bowl odds ranging from 60-1 to 80-1 before the campaign begins. In advance of Week 1, here are five interesting bets involving the Buccaneers.

Baker Mayfield Over 10.5 interceptions (-122, FanDuel)

2023 was a tremendous season for Baker Mayfield. After an adventurous 2022 campaign that saw him split time between Carolina and the Los Angeles Rams, Mayfield arrived in Tampa Bay with modest expectations that he promptly exceeded. Mayfield earned a Pro Bowl nod, finished in the top three in Comeback Player of the Year voting, and threw for more than 4,000 yards with 28 touchdowns. He also avoided costly mistakes last season, uncorking only 10 interceptions across 17 games and leading Tampa Bay to a division title. 

While Mayfield played well, it is fair to note that he was fortunate by the numbers. Mayfield was graded as having far more “turnover-worthy plays” than actual interceptions, which is significant when projecting his near-term future. Mayfield also performed at a level that he had rarely reached in previous seasons, and he will be working with a new coaching staff after achieving success under Dave Canales as the offensive coordinator last season. There is the risk that Mayfield doesn’t play 17 games, which would lessen his chances to throw 11 or more interceptions, but if you simply simulated the 2023 season again, Mayfield would project to the Over of this FanDuel prop, and he’s thrown 13 or more interceptions in three of his five seasons as a full-time starter.

Rachaad White Under 825.5 rushing yards (-112, FanDuel)

On the positive side, White is a very strong receiver out of the backfield, catching 64 passes for more than 500 yards in his breakout 2023 season. When it comes to his rushing ability, though, there is much to be desired. 

White did manage to compile 990 rushing yards in 2023 and glancing at only that figure may lead handicappers to the Over on this relatively modest rushing total. Context is key in this instance, and White could be in line for a significant decline in rushing opportunities, which would lead to a downturn in production. White carried the ball 272 times for Tampa Bay across 17 games last season, with no other rusher reaching 50 carries. He averaged a meager 3.6 yards per carry, and Tampa Bay graded as one of the league’s least efficient rushing attacks as a result. 

The Bucs spent a draft pick on RB Bucky Irving, who could become a factor in Tampa Bay’s plans, and White will need to improve his production to retain anywhere near the volume he earned in 2023. It is certainly possible that the Bucs allow him to plunge ahead in a similar role to a season ago, but the combination of White’s struggles, another real option behind him, and the reality that health over 17 games cannot be assumed for high-usage backs would point to the Under here. 

Chris Godwin Over 850.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)

Not everything is sunshine and rainbows with the Buccaneers, as you can glean from other bets in this space. However, this is a favorable angle on Godwin, who will be moving back to the slot on a regular basis in 2024. 

Godwin has comfortably exceeded 850.5 receiving yards in four of the past five seasons, only falling short of this DraftKings line with 840 yards in only 12 games during the 2020 campaign. He has been incredibly consistent and, while Tampa Bay’s overall passing attack could take a step back in 2024, Godwin is sure-handed and will provide a safety outlet for Baker Mayfield. If Godwin can stay on the field for 15 games or more, it would be a significant surprise if he landed below this number. 

As always with NFL betting, there is injury downside to betting on season-long Overs, but as teams load up against Mike Evans, Godwin will be there with consistent production. This would be a valuable number all the way up to at least 900 yards.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers to miss playoffs (-185, DraftKings)

On the surface, this may be a tough pill to swallow. After all, the Buccaneers won the NFC South a season ago and will return much of the roster from the 2023 season. Tampa Bay is in line for regression, however, and that comes from a team that already had the worst point differential of any NFC playoff squad in 2023. 

The Buccaneers were exceedingly fortunate from a metric standpoint to reach nine wins last season, overperforming in turnover luck, injury avoidance, red zone efficiency and other key metrics that are difficult to repeat. As such, Tampa Bay would already project for fewer than nine wins if nothing changed around the Buccaneers. But most believe the NFC South will be a division that will only send one team to the playoffs, and it is Atlanta that is favored to win the division. 

From there, Tampa Bay’s schedule has some notable landmines, and again, almost everything went right for the Bucs a year ago. Repeating a 9-8 campaign is far from a lock and, even if that happened, it may not be enough to reach the postseason. This bet needs to win 65 percent of the time or more, and the numbers point in that direction. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 8.5 wins (-155, Caesars)

It is a “dealer’s choice” situation on how to attack this Caesars win total, as there is also an Under 7.5 wins price (+125) available at DraftKings that can provide value. The Buccaneers will need to regress in order to slide under either total, but as noted above, that projects to be in store. 

Road games in Detroit, Kansas City and Dallas don’t make things particularly easy for the Bucs, and the same could be said for home dates against Baltimore, Philadelphia and San Francisco. The Bucs aren’t likely to be swept in those games, even if they will likely enter as underdog in all six matchups, but there is no love lost within the NFC South. Tampa Bay will be getting the best shotd of Atlanta, New Orleans, and Carolina across six matchups, and a quick look under the hood from the 2024 season points to 9-8 being an over-performance if anything. 

At a minimum, the Bucs don’t project to be improved and, with the Falcons and Panthers in line for better seasons, the sledding could be difficult for Tampa Bay.