2015 US Open: Updated odds and props for Round 2, 5 best values
After the first round of the US Open there has been a shift in the odds on who will win the tournament.
With the first round finished, we have updated odds on who will win the 2015 US Open as well as some new prop odds. Unsurprisingly, the two co-leaders Dustin Johnson (5-1) and Henrick Stenson (6-1) are among the three favorites who have separated themselves from the pack, according to Bovada. Jordan Spieth (5-1) is the other at the top of the odds list, despite being three strokes back of the leaders.
The betting favorite heading into the week was Rory McIlroy, but after an opening-round 72 he is seven back of the leaders, which has dropped him to 20-1. Others at the top of the leaderboard include Patrick Reed (12-1), Matt Kuchar (20-1) and Ben Martin (28-1).
(NOTE: Don't bet props. Don't bet live odds. It's a terrible thing to do with your hard earned money.)
That said, there are still some good values on the board for those that don't buy into the idea that this will be a three-man race to the finish. Here are the best value plays available on the board, as well as some exotics for Friday and the weekend.
Jason Day (12-1)
Day was one bad lie in the bunker away from posting a really low number and possibly challenging for the lead on Thursday. Instead, he's 2 under, but has the game to get to the top of the leaderboard and do so quickly. I don't think he should be this far back of those top three, so of all the favorites, this is the value play I like the best (I still don't trust Patrick Reed, also 12-1, to close out a major just yet).
Phil Mickelson (16-1)
Lefty is four off the pace after Thursday, but he's the only one near the top of the leaderboard with any real experience as a consistent contender at a major. You expect Chambers Bay is going to show its teeth at some point, and Phil knows how to weather that storm on Friday and Saturday. The question he still has to answer is if he can close out a US Open after being a six-time runner-up.
Hideki Matsuyama (40-1)
I liked Matsuyama at 33-1 where he opened the tournament and I'm not deterred by his opening-round 70. He's five back of the leaders, but at a US Open things can go wrong quickly for those at the top and they can come back to the field in a hurry. I think Matsuyama has the steady style to contend in any major, but especially a US Open that requires the type of precision he has. 40-1 is good value here.
Francesco Molinari (40-1)
Molinari fired a first-round 68 to put himself T7 and is coming off a T3 performance at the Memorial. His form right now is excellent and he's in a good position. 40-1 is not bad value for a guy with as good a golf game as he has who is just three shots back.
Jason Dufner (40-1)
You can pretty much copy and paste what I just said about Molinari, except Dufner has closed out a major before. He has been playing better recently, including at T24 at the Memorial two weeks ago where he was in contention Friday and Saturday. Dufner was my "long-shot" pick this week at 80-1 coming into the tournament and I still think 40-1 is good value at this point.
Brian Harman (150-1)
You want to get a little weird with a crazy long shot to sink a (extremely) small amount in? Look at Brian Harman. The Georgia product is four back right now, and is a really solid bunker player (22nd on tour in sand saves), which is a help around Chambers Bay. He's not long off the tee, and you wonder if he can deal with the length all week especially if the wind kicks up. That said, of all the guys way down the betting list, I just have a hunch he sticks around near the top 20 for a while and might get hot.
Top Englishman: Justin Rose (3-2)
This is me just fading Ian Poulter and Paul Casey. Rose is 2 over, but he played in the afternoon, which proved to be a more difficult track at Chambers Bay on Thursday. I trust him more than Poulter and Casey to make a move up the leaderboard and he's one of the few national prop favorites that isn't laying odds, which I just can't do when making a golf play that isn't a heads up matchup.
Friday Matchup: Louis Oosthuizen (-150) vs. Tiger Woods (+115)
And here's the exception to my "don't lay odds in golf" rule. I'll fade Tiger all day. The man just can't hit a golf shot the same way twice and I don't see him fixing it all by Friday. Give me Oosthuizen all day here.
Friday Matchup: Hideki Matsuyama (+135) vs. Matt Kuchar (+135) vs. Graeme McDowell (+300)
If you can't tell I have a somewhat unhealthy love of Matsuyama. I'll take him to fire the low score in this group Friday.
Friday Matchup: Francesco Molinari (+225) vs. Henrik Stenson (+125) vs. Brandt Snedeker (+185)
Stenson is the play for the safe, sane human being, but I like that big juicy +225 next to Molinari. He's been hot of late and I, for some reason, think Stenson sputters a bit Friday to the tune of an even-par round.
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