Having missed his past two cuts, I'm not sure Dustin Johnson should be the favorite for The Open Championship this week at Royal Birkdale, but he does hold that title. And if not Johnson, then who? The No. 1 golfer in the world leads a crew of top players scuffling into this event. Rory McIlroy has missed three of four cuts. Jason Day has missed the cut at his past two events. Defending champion Henrik Stenson has missed the cut at four of his past nine events, also.
There are golfers that are playing well, but this week's major certainly does not have the same feel that Augusta National and the Masters did back in April when it felt like everyone was at the top of their game. That said, there are some fascinating sleepers with long odds that are having great seasons and could swipe major No. 1.
Let's take a look at the numbers, according to Bovada.
The favorites
- Dustin Johnson: 12-1
- Jordan Spieth: 14-1
- Rickie Fowler: 14-1
If I had to be my life on somebody here, it would be Spieth at 14-1 even though I'm probably going to end up picking Fowler this week. I don't like Johnson at 12-1 at all. Also, I'm not sure how far back this goes, but I have a hard time remembering a favorite who didn't have single digit (i.e. 9-1 or better) odds.
The other favorites
- Jon Rahm: 16-1
- Sergio Garcia: 16-1
- Justin Rose: 18-1
- Rory McIlroy: 18-1
- Hideki Matsuyama: 20-1
- Tommy Fleetwood: 20-1
I love Fleetwood, but I don't like him here at 20-1. When is the last time you could get McIlroy at 18-1? That's a terrific number to nab him at even though he has missed those three of four cuts. Garcia is the play here, though. He has 10 (!) top 10s in his history at this tournament, and 16-1 is perfect. Matsuyama is worth a flier, too.
The fringe favorites
- Henrik Stenson: 25-1
- Adam Scott: 28-1
- Brooks Koepka: 33-1
- Jason Day: 33-1
- Paul Casey: 33-1
I'm not really in love with anyone here, but I guess I would go with Scott or Casey if I had to pick somebody out of this group. Scott has four top 10s in his past five seasons, and Casey is on a pretty decent number.
The not-quite sleepers
- Alex Noren: 40-1
- Louis Oosthuizen: 40-1
- Phil Mickelson: 40-1
- Branden Grace: 45-1
- Marc Leishman: 45-1
- Justin Thomas: 50-1
- Matt Kuchar: 50-1
- Thomas Pieters: 50-1
How about the fact that Phil Mickelson has two top-two finishes in the last four Opens, and he's 40-1 this week? I love him, Leishman and Pieters from this group. Leishman is a big-game hunter (two top fives in his last three Opens), and Pieters has it all (he finished T30 in his first Open last year).
The sleepers
- Padraig Harrington: 55-1
- Rafael Cabrera-Bello: 55-1
- Patrick Reed: 66-1
- Shane Lowry: 66-1
- Charl Schwartzel: 70-1
- Roberto Castro: 70-1
- Brandt Snedeker: 75-1
- Daniel Berger: 75-1
Harrington is a fun, sentimental play, but I ultimately don't think he'll factor in this week. Snedeker could be sneaky if the wind blows because his putting can rescue him. Berger, Lowry and Cabrera-Bello are all decent to solid bets.
If you dig even deeper, you can find some better wagers than these. Lee Westwood (80-1), Tyrrell Hatton (100-1), Francesco Molinari (100-1), J.B. Holmes (125-1), Tony Finau (125-1) and Anirban Lahiri (200-1) are all delectable.
So who wins the 2017 Open Championship? And what massive long shot stuns the golfing world? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full leaderboard from the model that nailed the Masters and find out.
