2018 U.S. Open odds, picks: Model that predicted four golf majors makes Tiger Woods projection

Golf's second major of the year, the U.S. Open, kicks off Thursday at 6:45 a.m. ET with the first group heading to the tee. Dustin Johnson is the 9-1 favorite at the 2018 U.S. Open, down from an open of 10-1. Right behind him on the 2018 U.S. Open odds board are 2013 champion Justin Rose at 12-1 and Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, and Justin Thomas, who are all going off at 14-1. Seven golfers are listed at lower than 20-1 in the highly competitive U.S. Open field. Weather shouldn't be an issue, as the forecast calls for sunny skies through all four rounds at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, N.Y.

Before you make any bets or enter a daily fantasy golf tournament on DraftKings or FanDuel, you'll want to hear what the team at SportsLine has to say.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, nailed the 2018 Masters, predicting the career-defining victory for Patrick Reed entering the weekend. It also nailed the Masters and U.S. Open last year, calling wins for Sergio Garcia and Brooks Koepka entering the weekend. Then it was all over Jordan Spieth at the 2017 British Open from the start and called his third major victory with three rounds to play.

Now that the 118th U.S. Open field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

One huge surprise the model is calling for at the U.S. Open this year: Tiger Woods, one of the top Vegas favorites, makes a strong run, but falls just short of winning the title.

Woods, a 14-time major champion, won his last U.S. Open in 2008 at Torrey Pines. His last appearance at Shinnecock Hills was in 2004, when he finished 17th. However, Woods knows how to perform at the U.S Open. His 15-stroke win in 2000 at Pebble Beach remains the largest margin of victory in U.S. Open history.

Another surprise: Jordan Spieth, a three-time major champion and one of the U.S. Open favorites, doesn't sniff the top 5. Spieth has yet to win on Tour this season, but does have three top-10 finishes, including a third place showing at the Masters.

However, Spieth has struggled mightily this season in plenty of statistical categories. He's just 72nd on the PGA Tour in driving distance (297.7 yards), 98th in driving accuracy percentage (61.71 percent), and 94th in sand save percentage (50.00 percent). And when it comes to putting, Spieth is 127th on the PGA Tour in putts per round at 29.26 and is hitting just 86.67 percent of his putts within 10 feet (144th on Tour). There are plenty of better values than the 18-1 premium you'll need to pay for Spieth at the 2018 U.S. Open.

Also, the model says four golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer will make a deep run at the U.S Open title, including a monster long shot. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the 2018 U.S. Open, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the updated odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the U.S. Open projected leaderboard from the model that's nailed four of the last five majors heading into the weekend.

Dustin Johnson 9-1
Justin Rose 12-1
Rory McIlroy 14-1
Justin Thomas 14-1
Rickie Fowler 14-1
Jason Day 16-1
Jordan Spieth 18-1
Jon Rahm 20-1 
Tiger Woods 20-1
Brooks Koepka 25-1
Phil Mickelson 25-1
Henrik Stenson 25-1  
Hideki Matsuayama 30-1 
Tommy Fleetwood 30-1
Branden Grace 30-1  
Paul Casey 40-1
Bryson DeChambeau 40-1
Patrick Reed 40-1  

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