2018 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play odds: Picks from the model that predicted Tiger Woods' run

The PGA Tour is heading to Austin, Texas, this week for the 2018 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. Arnold Palmer Invitational winner Rory McIlroy is the Vegas favorite at 7/1, followed closely by last year's Match Play champion, Dustin Johnson, at 8/1. McIlroy opened at 15/2 before moving up the odds board slightly.

Before you make any bets or enter a daily fantasy golf tournament on DraftKings or FanDuel, you'll want to hear what the team at SportsLine has to say.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, was all over Tiger Woods at the Valspar Championship two weeks ago. Despite being a 25/1 long shot, the model projected him as a top contender. The result: Woods shot 70 or better all four days and finished tied for second place. Last week, Woods continued his impressive play with a fifth-place finish at Bay Hill. Anybody who used their model had plenty of great value selections to choose from.

Now that the field for the 2018 WGC-Match Play is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

One huge surprise the model is calling for at the WGC-Match Play this week: Tommy Fleetwood, a 30/1 long shot, makes a serious run at the title. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Fleetwood is coming off a disappointing performance at last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational that saw him finish outside the top 25 for just the second time this year. However, he has been hot this season with a top-five finish at the Honda Classic and a third-place finish at the Hero World Challenge -- an unofficial PGA Tour event.

Fleetwood is in the top 10 on the PGA Tour in scoring average at 69.647 and has an Official World Golf Ranking of 12. He's in the top 30 in driving accuracy percentage (66.79, 22nd), holes per eagle (120.0, 28th), birdie average (4.05, 27th), and sand save percentage (56.52, 30th).

Another surprise: Phil Mickelson, who has four consecutive top-10 finishes, doesn't sniff the top 12. He's somebody to completely steer clear of this week.

Mickelson is outside the top 200 on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy percentage at 48.73 and his greens in regulation percentage is just 63.08, outside the top 150. He was eliminated in last year's Match Play quarterfinals.

Also, the model says three additional golfers with odds of 25/1 or longer will make a deep run at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play title. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the 2018 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play title this year? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the updated odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that has been red-hot so far this season, and find out.

Rory McIlroy 7/1
Dustin Johnson 8/1
Justin Thomas 10/1
Jon Rahm 12/1  
Jason Day 14/1
Jordan Spieth 20/1
Phil Mickelson 20/1
Paul Casey 20/1
Sergio Garcia 25/1
Patrick Reed 30/1
Alexander Noren 30/1
Hideki Matsuyama 30/1
Tommy Fleetwood 30/1
Tyrrell Hatton 40/1
Marc Leishman 40/1

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