2019 Farmers Insurance Open odds: Surprising picks from proven model that predicted four golf majors

The PGA Tour makes its next stop in sunny California for the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open. Torrey Pines Golf Course hosts the annual event, which gets underway on Thursday at Noon ET with five of the top 10 players in the world teeing off. That includes big names like Tiger Woods, who has won this event seven times and is making his first appearance in 2019. Woods is listed at 12-1 Farmers Insurance Open odds, the second-lowest of anyone. Jon Rahm, meanwhile, won this event two years ago and enters this week's tournament as the Vegas favorite at 10-1. The latest weather forecast for the San Diego area is calling for sunny skies with temperatures in the 60s and 70s, so Mother Nature likely won't have too much of an impact. Before you make any PGA Tour predictions for the week, be sure to check out the latest 2019 Farmers Insurance Open picks from the team at SportsLine.

SportsLine's prediction model, which was built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed four of the past eight majors entering the weekend and called Tiger Woods' deep run in the PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot. The model has also been spot-on early in the 2018-19 PGA Tour season. It was all over Rahm (12-1) at the 2018 Hero World Challenge, projecting him as a top contender from the start. It also correctly predicted Brooks Koepka's (9-1) victory at the 2018 CJ Cup earlier this season. Anyone who has followed the model is up big.

Now that the field for the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Rory McIlroy, a four-time major champion and one of the Vegas favorites, barely cracks the top five.

Thus far in the 2018-19 PGA Tour season, McIlroy finished 54th at the World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions and then fourth earlier this month at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Although he has 14 career PGA Tour victories, he has only finished on top of the leaderboard once since 2017, which was at the 2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Also, McIlroy enters this week's tournament ranked outside the top 150 on the PGA Tour in scoring average (72.284) and birdie average (3.88). He's not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in this loaded field than the 14-1 premium he's commanding.

Another surprise: Marc Leishman, a 20-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. 

Leishman has been red-hot since opening his 2018-19 campaign with a victory at the CIMB Classic. He's finished 18th or better in every PGA Tour start this season, which includes back-to-back top-fives at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and Sony Open. 

The Australian has also proven he can play extremely well at Torrey Pines. In fact, he has recorded four top-10 finishes at the Farmers Insurance Open and enters this year's event ranked fourth on tour in scoring average (69.367). He's also sixth in birdie average (5.38), third in rough proximity (29' 11"), and has made every single one of his 82 putts inside three feet, good for No. 1 on the PGA Tour. He has the chops to shoot up the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open leaderboard in a hurry.

Also, the model says three additional golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open? And where will Tiger Woods finish? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full Farmers Insurance Open projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the winners of four golf majors, and find out. 

Jon Rahm 10-1
Tiger Woods 12-1
Rory McIlroy 14-1
Jason Day 14-1
Justin Rose 14-1
Tony Finau 18-1
Xander Schauffele 18-1
Marc Leishman 20-1
Patrick Cantlay 22-1
Rickie Fowler 25-1
Gary Woodland 28-1
Jordan Spieth 28-1
Cameron Champ 33-1
Charles Howell III 33-1
Alex Noren 40-1
Patrick Reed 40-1
Brandt Snedeker 40-1
Hideki Matsuyama 40-1

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