2019 FedEx Cup Playoffs: Surprising BMW Championship picks, odds, best predictions from model that nailed six majors
SportsLine simulated the 2019 BMW Championship 10,000 times and came up with some surprises
Having hosted five major championships and the 2012 Ryder Cup, Medinah Country Club in suburban Chicago is one of the most iconic courses in the country. Starting Thursday, it will host the 2019 BMW Championship. It's the second round of the 2019 FedEx Cup Playoffs and only the top 70 players in the standings have been invited to participate. The last time Rory McIlroy played at Medinah, he nearly missed his Sunday tee time during the Ryder Cup, but was saved thanks to a police transport from his hotel to the course. McIlroy is one of the co-favorites alongside Brooks Koepka this week at 8-1 in the latest 2019 BMW Championship odds. His 2012 Ryder Cup teammate, Justin Rose, is at 16-1, while Northern Trust winner Patrick Reed is 25-1. The very first 2019 BMW Championship tee times are at 10:15 a.m. ET, when J.B. Holmes, Si Woo Kim, and Nate Lashley will let it fly. Before you make your 2019 BMW Championship picks, be sure to see the PGA Tour predictions from the model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed two of the last three majors entering the weekend. It predicted Gary Woodland's first career major championship at the U.S. Open even though he wasn't the favorite entering the weekend. The result: Woodland held off a late charge from Koepka and won by three strokes. The model also called Koepka's historic victory at the 2019 PGA Championship, predicting he'd hold his lead in the home stretch. In all, their advanced computer model has nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend, and anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now that the 2019 BMW Championship field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Koepka, a four-time major winner and the top favorite to win it all this week, makes a strong push but falls short of winning the title. He's not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in a loaded 2019 BMW Championship field.
The No. 1 player in the world enters the BMW Championship 2019 as the FedEx Cup points leader after an impressive season that saw him register the most wins on Tour. Kopeka also earned eight top-10 finishes this season and finished in the top five in all four majors.
Despite his dominant season, Koepka has never finished on top of the leaderboard in a FedEx Cup Playoff event and has struggled mightily at the BMW Championship in recent years, finishing 19th or worse in three of his last four starts. Plus, Koepka has had trouble finding the fairway off the tee this season. In fact, he enters this week's FedEx Cup Playoffs 2019 stop ranked 85th in driving accuracy percentage (63.04), which could cause major trouble at Medinah.
Another surprise: Tommy Fleetwood, a 25-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.
Fleetwood owns an Official World Golf Ranking of No. 13 and is 24th in the FedEx Cup standings. He's been on fire recently as well, finishing second in the Open Championship and fourth the following week in Memphis at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. He also landed in the top three at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Fleetwood boasts the No. 9 scoring average on the PGA Tour, with an average round of 69.634 strokes. He's 16th in holes per eagle at 112 and has owned the first two days of tournaments, averaging a 69.00 in Round 1 and 68.86 in Round 2. His low scores to start events set him up to make the cut and contend for titles. He's a prime candidate to shoot up the 2019 BMW Championship leaderboard in short order.
Also, the model says three other golfers with odds of 16-1 or longer will make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.
So who wins the second tournament of the FedEx Cup Playoffs 2019? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full 2019 BMW Championship projected leaderboard from the model that's nailed six golf majors heading into the weekend, and find out.
Brooks Koepka 8-1
Rory McIlroy 8-1
Jon Rahm 12-1
Dustin Johnson 14-1
Justin Rose 14-1
Justin Thomas 14-1
Patrick Cantlay 16-1
Adam Scott 20-1
Webb Simpson 20-1
Tommy Fleetwood 25-1
Patrick Reed 25-1
Paul Casey 33-1
Rickie Fowler 33-1
Hideki Matsuyama 33-1
Jordan Spieth 33-1
Tony Finau 40-1
Louis Oosthuizen 40-1
Xander Schauffele 40-1
Bryson DeChambeau 45-1
Tiger Woods 45-1
Jason Day 50-1
Matt Kuchar 50-1
Ian Poulter 50-1
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