2019 PGA Championship odds, picks: Tiger Woods projection from proven model that called four majors

One of the biggest changes in the revamped PGA schedule is the move of the second major of the year, the 2019 PGA Championship, from August to May. That should ramp up the intensity at Bethpage Black when action gets underway on Thursday, May 16. It's the 101st PGA Championship and the hype is sky-high. Fresh off his historic win at the Masters, Tiger Woods will challenge for his fifth Wanamaker Trophy and 16th career major win, which would put him just two away from Jack Nicklaus' 18. Woods is the 17-2 favorite in the latest 2019 PGA Championship odds, with Dustin Johnson (19-2), Rory McIlroy (19-2), Justin Thomas (13-1), Brooks Koepka (15-1), Jon Rahm (18-1) and Justin Rose (18-1) also going off shorter than 20-1. The 2019 PGA Championship field will be loaded with star-power, and a little advice could go a long way to selecting a winner. Before locking in any 2019 PGA Championship picks of your own, you'll want to see the PGA predictions from SportsLine's golf projection model. 

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed four majors entering the weekend and called Tiger Woods' deep run in the last PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot. The model has been spot-on early in the 2018-19 season. It was high on champion Rory McIlroy at the 2019 Players Championship, projecting him as one of the top two contenders from the start. It also correctly predicted Brooks Koepka's (9-1) victory at the CJ Cup. Additionally, it correctly called Bryson DeChambeau's (9-1) seven-shot victory at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Anyone who has followed the model is way up. 

Now with the 2019 PGA Championship field taking shape, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Woods, a four-time champion, reigning Masters winner, and the top Vegas favorite, doesn't even crack the top five. 

Woods is coming off one of the most historic victories in recent memory at the 2019 Masters. The 15-time major champion shot a 2-under par 70 to win his first green jacket since 2005 and his first major since the 2008 U.S. Open. His victory at Augusta National was the first time in his career that he came from behind to win a major. 

However, Woods struggled in 2012 at The Barclays, his last start at Bethpage. He finished the tournament at 1-over par after shooting a final-round 76, a 38th-place finish. SportsLine's model isn't calling for back-to-back major victories and sees far better values in this loaded field than the 17-2 premium he's commanding, lower than the 14-1 he was fetching at the Masters.

Another surprise: Jason Day, a 24-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. 

Day had a career-defining win in the PGA Championship four years ago, his first and only major win. But he has at least one top-five performance in all four majors and finished at least second four times in major play, so he has a proven track record of being near the top of the leaderboard in golf's most prestigious events. 

Day comes into the PGA Championship 2019 with plenty of momentum after firing an 11-under par at the Masters, good for fifth place. That was his fourth top-five finish this season on tour, which also includes a third place run in the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He's finished inside the top 20 in all but two events he's played in this season and is third in birdie average at 4.83 per round (145 birdies in 30 rounds). With his health issues behind him, Day is a golfer who's capable of climbing the 2019 PGA Championship leaderboard in a hurry.

Also, the model says four other golfers with 2019 PGA Championship odds of 18-1 or longer make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big. 

So who will win the 2019 PGA Championship, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2019 PGA Championship odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the 2019 PGA Championship projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the winners of four golf majors.

Tiger Woods 17-2
Dustin Johnson 19-2
Rory McIlroy 19-2
Justin Thomas 13-1
Brooks Koepka 15-1
Jon Rahm 18-1
Justin Rose 18-1
Bryson DeChambeau 21-1
Rickie Fowler 21-1
Francesco Molinari 24-1
Jason Day 24-1
Jordan Spieth 24-1
Xander Schauffele 29-1
Tommy Fleetwood 33-1
Henrik Stenson 34-1
Matt Kuchar 37-1
Patrick Reed 37-1
Cameron Champ 41-1
Paul Casey 41-1
Tony Finau 41-1
Hideki Matsuyama 43-1
Patrick Cantlay 43-1
Alex Noren 50-1
Bubba Watson 50-1
Gary Woodland 50-1
Sergio Garcia 50-1
Webb Simpson 50-1

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