2019 U.S. Open odds, picks: Tiger Woods projection from advanced simulation that nailed the PGA Championship

The cool breeze whistling off the Pacific Ocean coupled with golf's toughest conditions can only mean one thing: It's officially U.S. Open week. The 2019 U.S. Open tees off from the beautifully-designed Pebble Beach Golf Links on Thursday. The 2019 U.S. Open field will feature 156 players trying to etch their name into the history books. Pebble Beach is the site of Tiger Woods' dominant 15-shot victory at the 2000 U.S. Open, which remains the widest margin of victory at this historic tournament. Woods, who won his 15th career major earlier this year at the Masters, is gunning for his fourth U.S. Open title and the latest 2019 U.S. Open odds list the 43-year-old among the Vegas favorites at 10-1. Meanwhile, Brooks Koepka, the back-to-back champion, is looking to join Willie Anderson as the only players to win the U.S. Open three straight years. Koepka has also won four of the last nine majors overall. With so much history up for grabs this week at Pebble Beach, you'll want to see the latest PGA predictions from the team at SportsLine before locking in any 2019 U.S. Open picks of your own.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed five majors entering the weekend, including Koepka's historic victory at the 2019 PGA Championship. It also called Tiger Woods' deep run in last year's PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot. 

The model has been spot-on in the 2018-19 season as well. It was high on champion Rory McIlroy at the Players Championship, projecting him as one of the top two contenders from the start. It also correctly predicted Koepka's (9-1) victory at the CJ Cup earlier this season. Additionally, it correctly called Bryson DeChambeau's (9-1) seven-shot victory at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Anyone who has followed the model is way up.

Now that the 2019 U.S. Open field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Woods, a three-time champion, reigning Masters champ, and one of the top Vegas favorites, barely cracks the top 10.

With a revised PGA schedule this season, Woods elected not to play between the Masters and PGA Championship, and the layoff looked like it might have cost him. After winning at Augusta, Woods failed to make the cut at Bethpage Black despite entering the week as the betting favorite because he hit just 46 percent of fairways and gave back 0.713 strokes on the greens. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship much to the dismay of backers everywhere.

However, last week he was able to shake it off and get back on track with a top-10 finish at the Memorial. That being said, Woods hasn't finished in the top 10 at the U.S. Open since 2010 and has missed the cut the last two times he's played this event. Given his inconsistency off the tee and the difficulty he's had playing out of thick rough because of chronic back issues, there are far better values in a loaded 2019 U.S. Open field than the 10-1 premium you'll need to pay.

Another surprise: Justin Thomas, a 25-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Thomas will be able to attack the short 7,075-yard course thanks to his 301.7-yard driving average, which ranks in the top 40 on tour. Being able to hit a short iron into the greens at Pebble Beach will allow Thomas to control the golf ball and avoid the course's unforgiving bunkers and thick rough altogether.

His length off the tee on the par-five holes will also allow him to go for the green in two, which could result in more eagle opportunities. In fact, he enters the U.S. Open 2019 ranked third on the PGA Tour in holes per eagle (75.3) and is No. 1 in birdie average, recording 217 of them in 46 rounds this season, an average of 4.72. Plus, Thomas has made the top 12 in four major tournaments since 2017, including taking down that year's PGA Championship by two shots.

Also, the model says four other golfers with 2019 U.S. Open odds of 20-1 or longer make a strong run at the title, including a monster long shot. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who will win the 2019 U.S. Open, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the latest 2019 U.S. Open odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the 2019 U.S. Open projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the winners of five golf majors.

Brooks Koepka 8-1
Dustin Johnson 8-1
Tiger Woods 10-1
Rory McIlroy 10-1
Jordan Spieth 14-1
Patrick Cantlay 16-1
Justin Rose 20-1
Justin Thomas 25-1
Rickie Fowler 25-1
Adam Scott 25-1
Jon Rahm 25-1
Jason Day 25-1
Xander Schauffele 25-1
Tommy Fleetwood 30-1
Phil Mickelson 30-1
Francesco Molinari 35-1
Tony Finau 35-1
Hideki Matsuyama 40-1
Bryson DeChambeau 40-1
Matt Kuchar 40-1
Paul Casey 50-1
Webb Simpson 50-1
Brandt Snedeker 50-1

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