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The first round of the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational is in the books, and we have a lot to discuss. Rory McIlroy isn't leading, but he was for most of the day. Instead, it's Matt Every (again!) who clipped him by a stroke in Round 1. We'll jump into his round, check in on Brooks Koepka and discuss what to expect over the next three days. Let's jump in.
The leader: Matt Every (-7) -- Death, taxes and Matt Every at Bay Hill. Every is ranked No. 309 in the world and has made just two cuts this calendar year, and yet he one-upped Rory in Round 1 with a dirty little 1-under 65. He's a two-time winner of this tournament (2014, 2015) and could make it three in six years this week (which would be wild). Even he isn't sure how it happens.
The contenders: Rory McIlroy (-6), Scottie Scheffler (-5), Tyrrell Hatton (-4), Hideki Matsuyama (-3) -- These aren't the only contenders, but they're the primary ones in terms of staying power. We'll talk about McIlroy here because he led until the very end of the day when Every made a birdie on his second-to-last hole. The best thing I can say about Rory right now is how unsurprising a Thursday 66 is. I yawned when I saw it. Another week, another Thursday, another 66. It's not easy and he makes it look simple. It's actually very complicated and difficult, and it doesn't even look like he's trying. I don't know if this is the best stretch of his career, but if it's not, it's at least on the list. After a sputtering start, he played his last 12 holes in 7 under, a terrifying clip if you're trying to lap him on the weekend and a harbinger for what will likely be his first win of 2020.
A no good, very bad day: Tommy Fleetwood, come on down. After nearly winning the Honda Classic last week, Fleetwood shot a birdie-free 76 on Thursday in Round 1, putting one of the great current made-cut streaks in jeopardy going into Friday.
What about Brooks? What about Brooks? He shot an even-par 72, but you're not going to spot Rory six with the way you're playing right now and expect to get anything but boat raced. A summary from Brooks himself might be more apropos. When he said he was at Bay Hill trying to figure it out and was asked what he was trying to figure out, his answer was very Koepka-ian.
"How to play golf."
The lurker: I'm going with Scheffler on this one. He's ranked No. 51 in the world and has an argument to be considered the most underrated player. In five starts this year, he has three top 30s including a top five. No bogeys on Thursday en route to his 67, although his putting might have been a little too good for my liking.
Stat of the day: This one made me chuckle.
Shot of the day: Rory McIlroy had 260 yards out of the sand on the par-5 4th hole. He put it to 23 feet and made the putt for eagle.
New favorite: McIlroy is a 3-2 favorite to win (he was 5-1 coming in). Next best is Hideki Matsuyama at 12-1 and then Every at 18-1. So yeah, I think McIlroy is a pretty heavy favorite here.
Prediction for Day 2: Another 66 for Rory. Just Katie Ledecky-ing this field. His second win of the season, first of 2020, 19th of his PGA Tour career and an exclamation mark on his work heading into the big-time portion of the 2019-20 schedule.
