This week's Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill is full of big names and interesting matchups. This might be unexpected in a week sandwiched between a WGC event and The Players Championship, but these are strange times, and in strange times, Jordan Spieth plays an event for the first time ever and half of the top 25 players in the world tee it up the week before the biggest event on the PGA Tour's slate.
I'm glad for it because it gives us more interesting leans and strategies to discuss as it relates to finishes, winners and head-to-heads. Here's a look at five I really like this week heading into what should be a good one at Bay Hill. Odds via William Hill Sportsbook.
1. Bryson DeChambeau top 10 finish (+150): His numbers this year have been fine. He's struggled a bit more with his iron play than I would like, but he's coming to a course where he has a second and a fourth under his belt (in much different conditions). He's going to absolutely feast on these par 5s and continue his good run at Bay Hill.
2. Luke List top 20 finish (+400): I love guys who are flushing it but putting horrifically. I love them even more if they have finished in the top 20 all three times they have played this tournament from 2017-2019.
3. Paul Casey over Sungjae Im (+100): While I understand the Sungjae love once the Florida swing hits, Casey has simply been flat-out better in 2021. He's coming off a T5 at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and has four straight top 12s. Im has just one top 10 since finishing T2 at the Masters, and it came in a tiny field at the Tournament of Champions.
4. Cameron Davis top Australian (+333): Since Jan. 1, Davis has been the exact same player as Rory McIlroy. His betting numbers certainly do not reflect that, and no other Australian has been all that close to him in terms of ball-striking. Five straight made cuts and two top 20s in his last five events.
5. Viktor Hovland or Bryson DeChambeau to win (+600): I should probably have more Hovland in here than I do. He's ... the second-best player in the world right now (?), and of the players in this field, he's been the best from tee to green over the last three months (Casey is second best). I'm going to try to continue to ride him until people start figuring this out.
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