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Despite a positive COVID-19 test forcing his withdrawal from the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village two weeks ago, an event he was leading by six after 54 holes, Jon Rahm remains a substantial favorite to win the U.S. Open this weekend. Rahm has won a Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines before and is playing some of the best golf of anyone in the world.

Over the last three months, only four golfers are gaining more than 2.0 strokes per round on the field, and Rahm leads that crew at 2.48 (Brian Harman, Jordan Spieth and Collin Morikawa are all over 2.0 as well). This is indicative of how he played at Memorial, too, where he had gained over 20 strokes on one of the best fields of the PGA Tour season en route to what would have certainly been his sixth PGA Tour victory.

Rahm's resume is robust, but it's still missing a major championship to put him in a higher tier. Though he's had seven top 10s in 19 majors over the course of his still-young career, he has not truly contended in many of them -- certainly not as many as his talent level would suggest he should be more frequently. Torrey is perfect opportunity, though. The game as good as it has ever been, and the course setup here will heavily favor his style of play. 

A win is coming for Rahm at some point based on how well he's hitting the golf ball and how statistically elite he's been throughout 2021, and while his 10-1 betting number might not be all that appealing, I'm not sure there's anyone else around him that is more compelling if you're looking at it straight up. Now that he's officially received clearance to play after that COVID-19 diagnosis, being a clear favorite over the rest of the field puts a lot of pressure on Rahm entering Thursday's first round.

Here's a look at the favorites with odds provided by William Hill Sportsbook. Check out our full coverage guide for how to watch action from all four rounds across the weekend.

2021 U.S. Open odds, favorites

  • Jon Rahm: 10-1
  • Dustin Johnson: 18-1
  • Bryson DeChambeau: 18-1
  • Brooks Koepka: 18-1
  • Rory McIlroy: 20-1
  • Jordan Spieth: 20-1
  • Xander Schauffele: 20-1
  • Justin Thomas: 22-1
  • Collin Morikawa: 22-1

This group is not weird on its own, but the way it is situated is a bit bizarre. It's as if, after Rahm, oddsmakers have just sort of thrown up their hands and said, "No clue what's happening here." This entire list has shifted significantly over the last week. DeChambeau sticks out to me given his performance at Winged Foot in September, but even he has holes (namely, one top-10 finish since March). McIlroy should probably be shorter, but he has not been all that good at major championships of late. It's a bit of a free-for-all with value on DeChambeau and probably Schauffele.

  • Patrick Cantlay: 25-1
  • Viktor Hovland: 25-1
  • Patrick Reed: 25-1
  • Tony Finau: 28-1
  • Hideki Matsuyama: 30-1
  • Tyrrell Hatton: 35-1
  • Will Zalatoris: 35-1

I'm not sure all of these guys go in the same category, but Hovland and Reed (who won here in January) at 25-1 seem to have the most value. Maybe Finau, too, depending on how you feel about him closing out golf tournaments.

  • Webb Simpson: 40-1
  • Daniel Berger: 40-1
  • Shane Lowry: 40-1
  • Justin Rose: 40-1
  • Louis Oosthuizen: 45-1
  • Scottie Scheffler: 45-1
  • Paul Casey: 45-1
  • Tommy Fleetwood: 50-1
  • Phil Mickelson: 50-1
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick: 50-1
  • Cameron Smith: 50-1
  • Garrick Higgo: 50-1

Lefty checks in at 50-1 just one major after he came in at 200-1. That's quite a leap, but it's not unwarranted given how many folks will be on him as he tries to win the career grand slam. Lowry, who has been playing great, and Scheffler, who missed the U.S. Open in September with a positive COVID-19 test, are better value plays in this group than Mickelson.

Who will win the U.S. Open, and which long shots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed six golf majors and is up well over $9,000 since the restart.