This week's WGC-Workday Championship is maybe a bit trickier to handicap than most PGA Tour events because so little is known about the golf course it's being held at. The Concession Golf Club held the NCAA Championship in 2015, but it has yet to host a PGA Tour tournament, much less one with nearly every top-50 golfer in the world.
So course history is a variable that's mostly been taken out of this week's considerations, which I think actually simplifies how we look at this on some level. It leaves two factors: recent form and how golfers have played on courses similar to this one.
With that in mind, let's take a look at four matchups and wagers I like going into the first WGC event of 2021.
Best Bets for WGC-Workday Championship
1. Viktor Hovland (-118) over Tyrrell Hatton: Hovland's numbers have not quite caught up to his talent level, and this course will set up nicely for him. Of the players in this field, only Dustin Johnson has been better from tee to green over the last three months. I repeat, Hovland has been the second-best ball-striker on the planet since the beginning of December. He also has five top-six finishes in his last six events.
2. Brooks Koepka (+100) over Webb Simpson: This is a course setup play as much as anything. Koepka won a few weeks ago in Phoenix, and if this was a major we would be talking about him as a potential favorite at a big ballpark like this one. On the flip side, it does not appear to be the kind of track Simpson would thrive on. And while Koepka missed three straight cuts before winning in Phoenix, Simpson has fallen off just a bit from the level he was playing at this time last year.
3. Tony Finau top-five finish (+400): There's no reason to fade Finau this week. It's a good course for him, and he has four straight top-five finishes. The 4-1 number is a bit shorter than I would like, but he's arguably the best player on the planet right now on a track where par-5 performance will be key.
4. Scottie Scheffler top-20 finish (+138): It's tough to find longer odds on anybody in this field. Scheffler has four top-20 finishes in his last six starts (including the Masters), and is probably an underrated ball-striker in this field of elite ball-strikers. I don't think he'll necessarily contend to win the tournament, but I do feel confident that his tee-to-green play will rise inside the top 20 by the end of this week.
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