Seven of the last eight U.S. Open winners have entered the championship with betting odds of 30-1 or less with Gary Woodland being the outlier in 2019 at 60-1. The 2023 U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club is setting up for more of the same as world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler rides a historic tee-to-green season out west. Masters champion Jon Rahm remains red hot with four victories this calendar year, while PGA Championship winner Brooks Koepka has returned to his winning ways on one of golf's biggest stage.
Then we have Viktor Hovland, the lone man to cash top-10 finishes in the last three major championships, and Rory McIlroy, who has 18 top-10 finishes of his own since his last major triumph nearly nine years ago. Los Angeles' own Max Homa and Collin Morikawa, as well as fellow Californians Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, also check in below 30-1.
Despite the bevy of big names among the betting favorites, not all is lost for those on the second or third page of the odds board. Martin Kaymer entered the week of his blowout victory at the 2014 U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 at 40-1. Webb Simpson and Graeme McDowell both won U.S. Opens hosted in California while listed at 80-1.
So let's take a look at five sleepers who could potentially follow in the footsteps of Woodland, Simpson and McDowell with their 2023 U.S. Open odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
2023 U.S. Open predictions: sleepers
| 1 | |
| The resurgence is real. Fowler checks in 12th in total strokes gained over the last three months, ahead of the likes of Collin Morikawa, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau and Jason Day. He ranks inside the top 45 of each strokes-gained metric not including off the tee during this time. That's key for the five-time PGA Tour winner, and LACC should alleviate some stress with the big stick as it features wider-than-normal fairways for a U.S. Open. Fowler arrives with 12 top-20 finishes in 17 starts this season, back-to-back top-10 efforts and amid the best iron year of his career. The Californian has been close in this championship before, and don't be surprised if he's close again. Odds: 50-1 | |
| 2 | |
| Firm and fast conditions, scarce scoring opportunities and a need for creativity scream Reed's name. The 2018 Masters champion has experienced his fair share of success in the U.S. Open -- he led after 36 holes at Chambers Bay and Winged Foot and notched a top-five finish at Shinnecock Hills -- but has yet to cross the finish line. Reed has been a factor in the first two major championships of the season; he made a charge late at Augusta National for a sneaky T4 finish and notched a top-20 result at the PGA Championship. One could describe him as an undersized slot receiver -- he's a grinder, the ultimate competitor and will not go down without a fight. Odds: 85-1 | |
| 3 | |
| Kim's play this year is not being appreciated. The South Korean continues to milk the most out of his game and entered the final round of the Memorial Tournament with a share of the lead alongside McIlroy. Kim ultimately finished solo fourth at Jack's Place and added to a season that includes a runner-up finish at the Byron Nelson and a victory at the Sony Open in January. He ranks second in driving accuracy (minimum 15 rounds) over the last three months and isn't afraid of the spotlight. Odds: 125-1 | |
| 4 | |
| If Kim's game isn't appreciated, then Henley's is full blown being slept on. Over the last three months he ranks seventh in total strokes gained ahead of Tyrell Hatton, McIlroy and a slew of big names already mentioned. He's captured a T4 result at the Masters and top-20 finishes at a pair of designated events, including his last time out at Muirfield Village. The last time the U.S. Open was held in California, Henley was the 18-, 36- and 54-hole leader at Torrey Pines before sinking with a 5-over 76 on Sunday to finish T13. Odds: 125-1 | |
| 5 | |
| The move to LIV Golf has done nothing to hinder Pereira and his ball-striking prowess. The man who threw away the 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills made the cut in the first two major championships of the year and collected a top-20 finish at Oak Hill. When considering just those eight rounds, Pereira ranks fifth in strokes gained tee to green, eighth in strokes gained off the tee and fourth in strokes gained approach. He finished solo third at LIV Golf DC and has gained more than two strokes on the field per round in three of his last four tournaments. Odds: 125-1 | |
Who will win the U.S. Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine to see the projected U.S. Open leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed nine golf majors, including this year's Masters.
