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Will Zalatoris stood on the 12th tee at Bay Hill with a five-stroke lead Saturday afternoon. Less than an hour later, it was gone. Ill-timed mistakes from the wiry right hander combined with a flurry of birdies from Scottie Scheffler, Shane Lowry and Wyndham Clark saw the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational leaderboard completely flip with Scheffler and Lowry finishing the day sharing the top spot.
Scheffler, the world No. 1, and Lowry sit at 9 under after 54 holes; they are up one stroke on Clark and two over a group including Zalatoris, Hideki Matsuyama and Russell Henley. Scheffler will attempt to slip on his second red cardigan in the last three years and capture his first PGA Tour victory since the 2023 Players Championship, 51 weeks ago.
"It's going to take another really good round," said Scheffler. "The golf course is extremely challenging. Got to stay patient and grind out a lot of pars."
For most of the day, it did not appear as if Scheffler had a shot at walk off the 18th green with the lead in hand. The ball-striking maestro was without his greatest asset across his first 11 holes, struggling to navigate the tricky par-72 layout.
Frustration boiled over on the greens when his par attempt on the 11th fell short, dropping Scheffler to 2 over for the round. The Texan let out a bellow only to turn around and get to work. The 2022 champion at Ba Hill took advantage of the 12th and 13th with nice wedge shots, but the kicker may have come the following hole.
Converting a par save from 13 feet, Scheffler was injected with new energy -- relief transformed to confidence on the greens. A ridiculous birdie from the fairway bunker on the most difficult hole of the inward half came courtesy of a laser approach and conversion from 15 feet. Another soon followed on gettable par-5 16th, putting a bow on a five-hole stretch that saw Scheffler play in 4 under and surge into a share of the lead.
While Scheffler played his final seven holes in 4 under, Zalatoris went 4 over across this same stretch. Lowry and Clark were also benefactors of Zalatoris' struggles as the the 2019 Open champion rattled off four back-nine birdies, while the reigning U.S. Open champion began his back nine with three straight 3s.
The back tracking from Zalatoris also allowed Rory McIlroy back into the tournament. Coming home in 30, the 2018 champion sits at 5 under as part of a pack of blood-hungry pursuers like Max Homa and Sam Burns who sit within four of the lead entering Sunday's final round.
The leaders
T1. Scottie Scheffler, Shane Lowry (-9): One week after blowing a 54-hole lead, Lowry finds himself in the same position with 18 holes to go. A co-leader at this same point at the Cognizant Classic, the Irishman had to not only battle PGA National but a lengthy weather delay and a Monday finish en route to what was ultimately an unsuccessful conversion.The task at hand this time around is more challenging as he faces the best ball-striker in the game in addition to a slew of big names on his heels. The good news is Lowry has been arguably the most well-rounded of the bunch ranking inside the top 15 in each strokes-gained metric through three rounds.
Other contenders
3. Wyndham Clark (-8)
T4. Will Zalatoris, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley (-7)
7. Harris English (-6)
T8. Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns, Max Homa (-5)
Clark deserves all the flowers in the world -- roses, honestly. This time last season, he was without a win on the PGA Tour and he has a real opportunity to rattle off four wins in less than 12 months with those victories coming in the form of three signature events and a major championship at golf courses like Quail Hollow, Los Angeles Country Club, Pebble Beach and Bay Hill.
Like Zalatoris, he is going to be a tough out for the leaders. Both players carded not one but two double bogeys in their third rounds, and it will be the avoidance of such big numbers that will be crucial for their Sunday causes.
"I played really good," said Zalatoris. "You play 42 holes of bogey-free golf, and you take it. Obviously, the finish wasn't what I wanted. That's just Bay Hill. I hit one bad tee shot on 15, and I'm basically half plugged, hitting a burning tee shot in there. Then, I hit a pretty low driver in there onto 18, and same thing, it plugs again. I think I counted, it's my fourth year here, I've had 19 plugged balls here, so, needless to say, the bunkers aren't really my favorite here. I putted great. I drove it pretty good for the most part. Yeah, I'm still in the ballgame, as frustrating as it is to finish up that way."
Rory's back-nine surge
A sluggish start to McIlroy's Moving Day saw the Ulsterman make six straight pars out the gate. A 3-putt bogey on the par-3 7th was followed by another dropped shot on the par-4 8th, pushing McIlroy to over par for the tournament and eight behind the leaders who had yet to tee off.
A switch was flipped when McIlroy pulled driver out of the bag on the first hole of the inward half. Finding the putting surface off the tee, the 34-year-old needed two putts for his first birdie of the day. A nice par save came on the 11th before more birdies were sent flying. Five par breakers across his last seven holes, including three straight to finish, saw McIlroy come home in 30, tie the back-nine scoring record at Bay Hill and end the day only four off the pace.
"The 3 on 10, the tee shot onto the green there, that sort of got me going a little bit," McIlroy said. "Then, I made a great par save on 11 after driving it in the water. And those holes in particular, 10 and 11, sort of got me going. There are some chances coming in. Twelve is a good birdie chance, par 5; 16 as well. But obviously played those last few holes really nicely, and again, second day in a row where I've actually putted really, really nicely, which is good to see."
2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational updated odds, picks
Odds via Sportsline consensus
- Scottie Scheffler: 3/2
- Shane Lowry: 4-1
- Wyndham Clark: 7-1
- Will Zalatoris: 17/2
- Hideki Matsuyama: 12-1
- Russell Henley: 18-1
- Rory McIlroy: 18-1
- Harris English: 28-1
- Sam Burns: 40-1
- Max Homa: 45-1
There have been plenty of instances of players posting a score and leaders failing to catch the clubhouse lead. This would give way for someone like McIlroy at 18-1 to roll the momentum of his back nine on Saturday and into Sunday from only four behind. I don't mind the play, but it is time for Scheffler at 3/2 to return to the winner's circle. He is playing the back nine at Bay HIll so well and is looking more and more comfortable by the day with the new putter in hand.
