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The stage is set. Four of the best players in the world have separated themselves after the first two days of play at the 2024 Paris Olympics. Despite a bit of initial bunching near the top, there are clearly four golfers that have become the favorites to medal with just 36 holes to go in this competition, and they are all among the top 15 players in the Official World Golf Rankings.
Here's the top of the leaderboard at Le Golf National:
- T1. Xander Schauffele (United States): -11
- T1. Hideki Matsuyama (Japan): -11
- T1. Tommy Fleetwood (Great Britain): -11
- 4. Jon Rahm (Spain): -9
There is an 80% one of these four golfers win the gold medal, according to Data Golf. This makes sense, too. When non-stars are in this position after 36 holes, it's easy to envision them falling off. And while one or two of these golfers may drop back a bit, are all four going to fall off the pace?
That seems improbable, especially when you consider they're all ranked among the top four in strokes gained tee to green after two rounds. They shot a combined 20 under Friday to put themselves in this position.
"When you're in good form, all of us know that it's all about just making the correct decision and executing the shot and rinse and repeating that process," Schauffele said. "So, don't let too much try and bother you, and if you do hit a bad shots, it's easier to accept it because you know you're playing really good golf and you can make it up somewhere else. In that sort of zone."
All four of these golfers are in that zone right now, but only one of them, Schauffele, has an Olympic medal. It would not be surprising if he added to his total or if the three medals in these Summer Games ended up going to this group of four at the top.
The Tom Kim story
The South Korean is playing for more than just a medal. If Kim finishes among the top three of this event -- winning gold, silver or bronze -- he will become exempt from the mandatory military service that is required of countrymen before they turn age 35.
Military service has certainly derailed other South Korean careers, and therefore, Kim is playing for more than anyone else atop this leaderboard. He deferred questions about the situation entering into the week, but that doesn't mean it won't be a massive storyline over the next two rounds.
"I think the easiest answer for us is here we're to play good this week," said Kim in a press conference with fellow South Korean Ben An earlier in the week. "We are not focused on that.
"We are here to represent our country. I want to be honest: I want me and Ben to be standing in that stadium not for exemption but for our country. That's the most important part. That's the pride of being a South Korean. We have our services, and it is what it is. We are going to go throughout, and we are going to play our best, and I really hope he and I are standing on that podium."
What happened to Scottie Scheffler?
When the best player in the world shot 67 on Thursday, it felt like the absolute floor -- the worst score he could have shot. But he went out in 38 and had to claw his way to respectability on the back nine on Friday. Scheffler ended up shooting 4 under on that side (of course), but he's still five back of the leaders entering Moving Day.
What went wrong? Well no birdies on the front and a double bogey at the par-4 7th because he struggled to get out of the rough on his second shot did not help the score. And now, it will take a heroic effort this weekend for Scheffler to get back in the mix while his rival for player of the year, Schauffele, will have one of the latest tee times on Saturday afternoon.
Shot of the day
Ireland's Rory McIlroy hit the stick from 260 out and went on to make eagle here on the third hole. He gave those shots back as the day wore on and could not get close to the top of this leaderboard, eventually finishing at 5 under. But that's the shot of the tournament through two rounds.
2024 Olympics updated odds
- Xander Schauffele: 17/10
- Tommy Fleetwood: 4-1
- Jon Rahm: 11/2
- Hideki Matsuyama: 11/2
- Scottie Scheffler: 10-1
- Tom Kim: 16-1
- Rory McIlroy: 25-1
- Thomas Detry: 30-1
That nobody else is shorter than 45-1 shows the respect betting markets have for the top four on this board. Scheffler at 10-1 is intriguing, but it's not like he's five back of one player. He's five back of three world class golfers and not playing his best golf so far this week.
I like Rahm and Matsuyama if I have to pick from this list. Rahm especially feels like he has some momentum coming off his Open championship performance and LIV United Kingdom victory last week. At just two back, he feels like a good play at 11/2 to win this event.
