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The stage is set for the final round of the 2024 Tour Championship on Sunday, and the narrative is the same as it has been all year on the PGA Tour: Everybody is trying to catch Scottie Scheffler. After opening 65-66 on the first two days, Scheffler shot another 5-under 65 moving to 26 under and opening up a five-shot lead on Collin Morikawa.
Scheffler also sits at least nine shots ahead of everyone else in this field, including Xander Schauffele, who fell back Saturday at East Lake Golf Club with his second round over 70 this week.
This is a spot Scheffler has been in before. In 2022, he led Rory McIlroy by six shots going into the final tournament of the FedEx Cup Playoffs at East Lake. That year, McIlroy not only caught but surpassed Scheffler, besting him by seven shots over the final 18 holes to win to Tour Championship and FedEx Cup by a single stroke. Will Morikawa do the same this time around? It's certainly possible but would perhaps be even more surprising than what McIlroy accomplished two years ago.
Leader
1. Scottie Scheffler (-26): It feels strange to note that someone is this far under par after 54 holes, but that's just how it goes at the Tour Championship. The only reason not to already call this for Scheffler is that he has failed to touch off a six-shot lead in the final round at this course before. Still, this was a dream start for the No. 1 player in the world, who said he's trying to think about shooting more 65s and not the $25 million that he could win by finishing first on Sunday.
"I wasn't thinking about the lead out there today," Scheffler said. "There's no reason to. It's the first day of the tournament. It's 72 holes. It's a long time out there to be playing with a lead or whatever it is. I was just focused on staying in my own world and continuing to just try to execute."
Contenders
2. Collin Morikawa (-21)
3. Sahith Theegala (-17)
4. Xander Schauffele (-16)
T5. Adam Scott, Wyndham Clark (-15)
The good news for Morikawa is that he's taken the fewest number of strokes this week. The bad news is that this is the one tournament where that doesn't necessarily matter. He started the week six back of Scheffler, who has nearly been just as good. Coincidentally, that that same spot McIlroy started in 2022 when he went on to win.
Morikawa clicked into place on Thursday on the back nine when he made six birdies in a row; he has not looked back since with birdies on 20 of the other 45 holes he's played. Morikawa is not likely to win on Sunday, but he's at least given himself a chance.
"I mean, it's going to be very hard, but I believe in myself that I can do it," he said. "Five shots is a lot, but two-shot swings happen. I think I've seen a couple over the past few days. I've just got to play my game. I've got to go low. I know that. Hopefully, I've got that in me. I've got 18 holes left to the season. I keep talking about that, but I'm going to put everything I have into these next 24 hours."
Sahith's Call
Theegala, who made seven birdies in his last eight holes, called a penalty on himself for touching the sand in a fairway bunker on the third hole. It's not something anyone seemed to be able to see, but Theegala voiced it, and it likely cost him any legitimate shot at winning $25 million and perhaps a spot or two in the final FedEx Cup Playoff standings, which could also be worth millions. Quite a turn of events for Theegala, who insisted on the penalty and shared his thoughts on the situation after his round.
"Immediately after I hit it, great contact, great shot, talked to Xander about it," he said. "I was like, 'Hey, dude, I think I moved some sand while I hit that shot,' and we thought that it was no big deal because there was no intent, didn't ... actually change the lie at all.
"But unfortunately, the rule is it doesn't matter the intent. If you change the lie in the direct area around the ball that could affect your swing, it is a two-shot penalty. At the end of the day, I've played so much golf. You kind of just trust your intuition and gut, and right away I thought I moved some sand there. I'm in the 90s percent that I thought I moved some sand. I'd sleep a lot better if I saw some clear image of me moving the sand.
"I really think I did move the sand. It's just an unfortunate rule. But what are you going to do, take the two shots on the chin and just roll with it."
2024 Tour Championship updated odds, picks
- Scottie Scheffler 1-18
- Collin Morikawa: 12-1
- Xander Schauffele: 250-1
- Sahith Theegala: 350-1
- Wyndham Clark: 1500-1
This is over unless you believe Scheffler could repeat what he did in 2022 in the final round. Morikawa has been awesome this week and leads the field in strokes gained off the tee, from tee to green and overall, but unless Scheffler shoots something at or over par -- he hasn't done much of that this year -- then Morikawa is probably going to fall just short of winning this event and the $25 million that goes with it.
Rick Gehman and Greg DuCharme recap moving day at the 2024 Tour Championship and set you up for the final round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Follow & listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
