2025 PGA Championship predictions, free picks: Patrick Cantlay among best longshots to back at Quail Hollow

SportsLine's model simulated the 2025 PGA Championship 10,000 times and revealed its PGA Tour longshots

By Owen OBrien

May 14, 2025 at 8:35 pm ET • 4 min read

USATSI

Golfers near the top of the odds have dominated majors since the beginning of 2024. In fact, the last eight PGA Championships have been won by some of the biggest names in the sport entering the 2025 PGA Championship. All five majors since last year's Masters have been won by a golfer in the top-five favorites, and Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka have combined to win five of the last eight PGA Championship tournaments. However, PGA Championship betting trends can change just as quickly. The 2025 PGA Championship tees off from Quail Hollow Golf Club on Thursday, May 15, and features another star-studded field, led by Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy as co-favorites at +500 odds. Neither of them has won a PGA Championship over the last eight years. Could that make one of the 2025 PGA Championship longshots more likely to hit for 2025 PGA Championship bets? Which 2025 PGA Championship longshots might be worth a sprinkle this week as you place your golf bets and build your PGA Tour parlay picks?

SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament. This same model has also nailed a whopping 14 majors entering the weekend, including the 2025 Masters -- its fourth Masters in a row -- and last year's PGA Championship and U.S. Open.

Now that the 2025 PGA Championship field is locked in, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and revealed its longshot betting picks to help you figure out how to bet on the PGA Championship and how to take advantage of a PGA Championship promo code.

Patrick Cantlay (40-1)

Although Cantlay is still pursuing his first victory since 2022, the 33-year-old has made the cut in all 10 tournaments this year and made the cut in 19 of 21 events last year as a proven golfer who can avoid trouble early in tournaments. Cantlay, an eight-time PGA Tour winner, is still chasing his first career major, but he entered this year with a top-10 major result in each of the last three years, including finishing T3 at last year's U.S. Open. Cantlay finished T4 at last weekend's Truist Championship, opening and closing the tournament with rounds of 5-under-par 65.

Cantlay's inability to win the big one has significantly altered his odds and the model views him as far too talented of a golfer to be listed at more than 40-1 odds. He is 12th on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained, highlighted by ranking ninth for tee-to-green, and he's third on Par 4s this year. If Cantlay can put together four rounds of strong play on Par 4s and knock down some timely birdies, he can remove himself from the list of accomplished golfers without a major, and at the current odds, the model sees value in making that bet. You can bet Cantlay at DraftKings and get $200 in bonus bets instantly with a $5 bet here:

Tyrrell Hatton (50-1)

Hatton has performed well at the PGA Championship throughout his career, posting five top-25 finishes and two top-10s in 10 starts. His average finish in the last seven PGA Championships is 25th, with an average score of 1 over. While Hatton is still seeking his first major victory, he has only missed the cut once (2024 Open Championship) in his last 13 major tournaments.

The 33-year-old finished T14 at the Masters in April, as a poor third round was the only thing stopping him from contending on Sunday. He has won a pair of DP World Tour events since October, including the Hero Dubai Desert Classic in January. Hatton is a 13-time winner worldwide, so the model views him as a valuable longshot option this week. You can snag $200 in bonus bets at FanDuel if your first $5 bet wins (maybe on Hatton to win?).

Justin Thomas (22-1)

Thomas won his first major championship at Quail Hollow in the 2017 PGA Championship and then added another PGA Championship victory at Southern Hills in 2022. However, he went nearly three years winless following that win before scoring his 16th PGA Tour win at the RBC Heritage last month.

Now he's all the way back up to No. 5 in the world rankings following a t-2nd last week in the Truist Championship. Thomas has a victory and two runner-up finishes in his last three starts and he's never finished worse than t-26th in six career starts at Quail Hollow. Despite his recent successes and his history at Quail Hollow, you can still get 25-1 on Thomas to win at Caesars, where you can bet $1 and double your winnings on your next 10 bets now.