After the daunting challenge at Kiawah Island last week, the PGA Tour heads to a much shorter course as Colonial Country Club hosts the 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge. The event tees off Thursday at the Fort Worth, Texas course, which is the longest-serving venue on the PGA Tour behind only Augusta National. The layout is only 7,209 yards, 667 shorter than the Ocean Course, which was the longest in major championship history. But windy conditions and the doglegs can present challenges, and the history of the course has drawn a strong post-major field.
Dallas native and 2016 winner Jordan Spieth is the 10-1 favorite in the latest 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Justin Thomas (12-1) and 2020 runner-up Collin Morikawa (14-1) are next in line on the PGA odds board, with defending champion Daniel Berger at 18-1. Before locking in any 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge picks or PGA Tour predictions, you need to see who golf insider Sal Johnson is backing.
A media legend and consummate golf insider, Johnson has a strong feel for how the players' games fit the courses.
Before Phil Mickelson shocked the golf world last week, the golf guru made it a point to include Louis Oosthuizen among his contenders. Johnson told SportsLine that Oosthuizen excels on links-style tracks like the Ocean Course and said he is "always a good pick in majors."
The South African came in as a 60-1 long shot but was right in the middle of the action all weekend and went 4 under to tie for second.
Johnson also has an eye for which players can capitalize on momentum. Before Hideki Matsuyama won the Masters last month, Johnson made special mention of Spieth, Xander Schauffele and Will Zalatoris as golfers to watch. Zalatoris nearly caught Matsuyama and finished as runner-up, while Spieth and Schauffele tied for third.
He also knows when surging players are poised for a breakthrough. He tabbed Sungjae Im as a top contender before his first Tour win at the Honda Classic last season, then touted Tyrrell Hatton before he got his first tour victory the following week. Anyone who has followed Johnson's advice has cashed in huge.
Now Johnson, the first producer of "Inside the PGA Tour," a longtime ABC Sports golf producer who worked with Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer and Greg Norman, and the founder of the world's top golf stats database, has released his highly confident 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge picks, and they will surprise you.
Top 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge expert picks
Shockingly, the golf expert is slightly fading Thomas, even though he is one of the top choices of oddsmakers. The 28-year-old missed the cut at the PGA, which could be attributed to a course that gave many top players fits. But Thomas hasn't played that well since winning the Players in March, with his T-13 at the Valspar his best finish in his last five starts. He is a great ball-striker (third in strokes gained approach) but his driving (87th SG off the tee) and putting (93rd in SG) haven't been great, so Johnson is looking at several other players as better options.
On the other hand, Johnson knows Spieth is tough to beat in his home state. The 28-year-old won the Valero Texas Open in San Antonio two months ago and was T-9 at the Byron Nelson this month. His play at Colonial has been uncanny, as he has never shot worse than 72 in 32 rounds. He was the runner-up in 2015 and '17, in addition to his victory in 2016. Spieth has been on a tear since missing the cut at the Farmers at the end of January, finishing in the top 10 in seven of the nine events. He is 23rd on tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green and T-9 in par breakers.
The golf guru also knows there is no telling what Mickelson will do next. Mickelson comes in at 50-1 odds, but his stunning win at the PGA Championship made it clear that he can't be counted out. The 50-year-old could be drained from his emotional victory, and the whirlwind of attention it attracted. Mickelson also led after the first round at the Wells Fargo following a 64, but he went 14 over in the next three rounds to finish 69th. He has three top-25s in his past six events and has shot a round in the 60s in all six. He has also won twice in his career at Colonial.
How to make 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge predictions
Among the options Johnson is touting is a long shot who comes in at around 50-1. Big hitters who can putt well excel at Colonial, and this player fits the bill. He could pull off a stunning victory in the 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge, and anyone who backs this underdog could cash in huge. You can only see who it is here.
Who wins the Charles Schwab Challenge 2021? Where do Spieth and Berger finish? And which huge long-shot is a must-back? Check out the odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Sal Johnson's full leaderboard, picks and analysis for the 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge, all from the insider who has a strong feel for when these players are in line for a big weekend.
2021 Charles Schwab Challenge field, odds, contenders
Jordan Spieth 10-1
Justin Thomas 12-1
Collin Morikawa 14-1
Daniel Berger 18-1
Abraham Ancer 20-1
Tony Finau 22-1
Patrick Reed 22-1
Sungjae Im 25-1
Will Zalatoris 25-1
Corey Conners 25-1
Scottie Scheffler 25-1
Joaquin Niemann 30-1
Justin Rose 30-1
Gary Woodland 40-1
Billy Horschel 45-1
Charley Hoffman 45-1
Phil Mickelson 50-1
Brian Harman 50-1
Jason Kokrak 50-1
Kevin Na 55-1
Kevin Streelman 60-1
Emiliano Grillo 60-1
Matt Wallace 60-1
Sergio Garcia 60-1
Ryan Palmer 60-1
Chris Kirk 66-1
Brandt Snedeker 66-1
Matt Jones 66-1
Cameron Tringale 66-1
Matt Kuchar 66-1
Si-Woo Kim 70-1
Keith Mitchell 70-1
Branden Grace 70-1
Lee Westwood 70-1
Russell Knox 80-1
Kevin Kisner 80-1
Ian Poulter 90-1
Joel Dahmen 90-1
Harold Varner 90-1
Camilo Villegas 90-1
Brendon Todd 100-1
Doug Ghim 100-1
Carlos Ortiz 100-1
Cameron Champ 100-1
Patton Kizzire 100-1
Harry Higgs 100-1
Doc Redman 100-1
Jhonattan Vegas 100-1
Talor Gooch 100-1
Cameron Davis 100-1
Lucas Glover 100-1
Peter Uihlein 100-1
Rory Sabbatini 125-1
Luke List 125-1
Adam Hadwin 125-1
C.T. Pan 125-1
Scott Stallings 125-1
J.T. Poston 150-1
Kyle Stanley 150-1
Sepp Straka 150-1
Troy Merritt 150-1
Patrick Rodgers 150-1
Zach Johnson 150-1
Matthew NeSmith 150-1
Sebastian Munoz 150-1
Richy Werenski 150-1
Scott Piercy 150-1
Pat Perez 150-1
Joseph Bramlett 150-1
Wyndham Clark 150-1
Dylan Frittelli 150-1
Maverick McNealy 150-1
Henrik Stenson 175-1
Tom Hoge 200-1
Brice Garnett 200-1
Jason Dufner 200-1
Vincent Whaley 200-1
Mackenzie Hughes 200-1
Rafa Cabrera Bello 200-1
Nate Lashley 200-1
Adam Schenk 200-1
Michael Thompson 200-1
Byeong Hun An 200-1
James Hahn 200-1
Nick Taylor 200-1
Andrew Putnam 200-1
Sahith Theegala 250-1
Chase Seiffert 250-1
Will Gordon 250-1
Brian Stuard 250-1
Graeme McDowell 250-1
Danny Lee 250-1
Robert Streb 250-1
Tyler McCumber 250-1
Brandon Hagy 250-1
Anirban Lahiri 250-1
Denny McCarthy 250-1
Henrik Norlander 250-1
Scott Brown 300-1
Adam Long 300-1
Peter Malnati 300-1
Sung-Hoon Kang 300-1
Michael Gligic 300-1
Sam Ryder 300-1
Brian Gay 300-1
Cameron Percy 300-1
Mark Hubbard 300-1
Kramer Hickok 350-1
Andrew Landry 350-1
Austin Cook 400-1
Jimmy Walker 400-1
Hudson Swafford 500-1
Robby Shelton 500-1
Xinjun Zhang 500-1
J.J. Henry 1000-1
John Augenstein 1000-1
Erik Compton 1000-1
D.A. Points 1000-1
Michael Visacki 1000-1
Keith Clearwater 1000-1
