One of my favorite parlor games to play as it relates to golf is, "How many wins will Rory McIlroy have this season if he's an average putter?" The inverse could be said of Phil Mickelson. "How many wins will Phil Mickelson have this season if he's an average driver?"

Mickelson knows he's lousy off the tee, which is why he noted a new 2018 goal to SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio recently: Be average.

"It sounds bad, it sounds funny," Mickelson said. "But what a great step up that would be for me just to get to average. I just don't want to give away shots off the tee. I don't need to gain shots off the tee; I'll gain them elsewhere. I feel like the short putting has been addressed. I feel like, and believe, that I've had a bit of a breakthrough with the driver. And if that happens, I think 2018 could be a remarkable year, a year where I can win multiple times."

I don't disagree with this. Mickelson was actually No. 14 on the PGA Tour in strokes gained on approach shots in 2017. He was 119th off the tee. So the question for me is not, "If Mickelson drives it averagely, will he contend?" because I already know that answer. The question is, "Is there anything in his history that suggests he will be able to drive it averagely?"

YearStroke Gained Off the TeeWins

2017

No. 119

0

2016

No. 132

0

2015

No. 91

0

2014

No. 64

0

2013

No. 102

2

2012

No. 131

1

2011

No. 72

1

2010

No. 66

1

2009

No. 46

3

2008

No. 28

2
2007No. 403
2006No. 122
2005No. 374

Yes, there is evidence! Mickelson was a little bit above average in 2014 and just worse than that in 2015. He was fine in 2010 and 2011 and good from 2005-2009. It's probably not a coincidence that he won a lot during that time.

That was also a different era, though. Mickelson was in his prime. Now, he's almost 50, and he's not as powerful as he used to be. He finished No. 26 in driving distance in 2005 and No. 89 in 2017, although he did finish No. 22 in 2015, so there are signs in recent years that there's still some power in that left-handed swing. 

But 2015 might have been an anomaly. He hasn't been in the top 50 in distance in the last six seasons other than 2015. Strokes gained off the tee is affected by both distance and accuracy. So if we remove some of his distance and rely on the accuracy, well, if you've watched Mickelson, that's not a great thing.

Lefty is one of the big storylines in 2018 and remains incredibly relevant at age 47. This specifically will be one of the big storylines within the storyline of Mickelson contending on the global stage. And as usual with Phil, we have no idea how it's going to play out.