We're in the final days of the 2017 regular season, and that means the individual award candidates are putting the finishing touches on their bodies of work. When it comes to the AL Cy Young race, you can pretty much winnow it down to two serious candidates for the hardware: Corey Kluber of the Indians and Chris Sale of the Red Sox. 

Sure, a number of worthies bear mentioning -- Luis Severino of the Yankees, Marcus Stroman of the Blue Jays, Justin Verlander of the Astros, Carlos Carrasco of the Indians, Ervin Santana of the Twins, for instance. However, barring the absurd and inexplicable, Kluber and Sale are going to finish one-two (or two-one, if you're partial to Sale) in the balloting. That's why, in this final snapshot of the race, we're devoting our attention to this duo. 

Let's do it tale-of-the-tape style, shall we? We shall ... 

COREY KLUBER

Statistic

CHRIS SALE

18-4

W-L

17-7

198 2/3

Innings

209 1/3

2.27

ERA

2.75

2.49

R/G

2.92

262

SO

300

34

Unintentional walks

41

34.6

Strikeouts as % of batters faced

36.3

21

HR allowed

20

5

CG

1

3

Shutouts

0

7.8

WAR (Baseball-Reference)

6.2

7.1

WAR (FanGraphs)

8.2

201

ERA+

164

78.6

Quality start %

74.2

7.1

Innings/start

6.8

68.3

Average Game Score

65.3

4.74

Opponents' avg. R/G

4.70


This basically comes down to an argument over dominance versus run prevention. To be sure, both of these hurlers thrive in both areas relative to pretty much any other pitcher. Relative to each other, though, you get distinctions. Kluber has allowed 55 runs in 198 2/3 innings. Sale's given up 68 in 209 1/3. On the other side of things, Sale's got 300 strikeouts, which is an eye-catching single-season benchmark, and he's also struck out a slightly higher percentage of opposing hitters than Kluber has. 

From those two positions, the differences in WAR flow. The Baseball-Reference version of WAR, which leans on runs/game, favors Kluber by a wide margin. The FanGraphs' version, however, depends upon FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). FIP is scaled to look like ERA but reflects just those outcomes that have nothing to do with fielding -- i.e., strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed. As such, it's a better measure of raw pitching skill than ERA is. No surprise, then, that FanGraphs' version of WAR says Sale has been better this season. 

Some will no doubt point to Sale's higher innings total as a point in his favor, and it's true that he leads Kluber by a significant margin thanks to the Kluber's stint on the DL from May 3 to June 1 with a lower-back injury. On the other hand, Kluber has five complete games to Sale's one, and on average he's gone a bit deeper in his starts.

In the end, what voters will likely note is Kluber's big edge in ERA and to a lesser extent R/G and ERA+, while also noting that Kluber's "dominance" indicators are also impressive, if not quite to the extent that Sale's are. Since the Cy is a backward-looking, value-based award, there's a tendency to "bottom line" it -- i.e., did this guy keep runs off the board? In Kluber's case, he did that better than anyone in the AL, and he did so by a wide margin. 

That's why right now, Kluber is probably the narrow favorite to win the award. It's close, though, and even in the final days there's time enough for things to change.