2018 MLB odds: Five teams that have helped (and hurt) their postseason chances early on

The 2018 baseball season is not yet two weeks old. Most teams have played 10-12 games at this point, and while that only represents about six percent of the 162-game schedule, those 10-12 games could have a real impact on a team's postseason outlook. After all, those are wins (and losses) in the bank. They can't be taken away.

Now, that said, most teams have seen a negligible change to their postseason odds at this point. Maybe a percentage point or two in either direction. Nothing crazy. Some teams have seen a much more significant change, however. Here are the five teams that have improved their postseason odds the most early in the 2018 season, per SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh.


Opening Day Postseason Odds Postseason Odds as of April 10 Change
1. New York Mets

13.0%

50.5%

+37.5%

2. Arizona Diamondbacks

37.1%

62.2%

+25.1%

3. Los Angeles Angels

29.4%

52.7%

+23.3%

4. Pittsburgh Pirates

4.9%

21.4%

+16.5%

5. Houston Astros

87.1%

94.7%

+7.6%

Thanks to a franchise-best 9-1 start, no team has boosted their postseason odds more early this season than the Mets. They went 70-92 last year, added some pieces over the winter (Todd Frazier, Jay Bruce, etc.), but still came into this season as a projected bubble team. Now, after winning nine of their first 10 games, the Mets have seen their postseason odds jump over 50 percent. That's a huge increase in a small period of time.

The D-Backs (8-3), Angels (9-3), and Pirates (8-2) are all off to very strong starts. Arizona swept the Los Angeles Dodgers last week, and even though it was only three games, it provided a nice little boost to their postseason odds. Sweeping the division favorite is always good for business. The Astros? Their postseason odds were great coming into the season, and they've done nothing but continue to look like the best team in baseball.

Now, on the other side of the coin, here are the five teams that have seen their postseason odds decline the most in the early going this season:


Opening Day Postseason Odds Postseason Odds as of April 10 Change

1. Milwaukee Brewers

47.9%

23.7%

-24.2%

2. Chicago Cubs

90.2%

79.3%

-10.9%

3. Los Angeles Dodgers

96.7%

86.3%

-10.4%

4. Texas Rangers

14.4%

4.3%

-10.1%

5. St. Louis Cardinals

52.9%

43.3%

-9.6%

First things first, the Dodgers and Cubs still have very good postseason odds overall. They just aren't quite as good as they were two weeks ago. Los Angeles is 4-6 in the early going and the Cubs are 5-5. Not bad starts, just mediocre. Combine them with hot starts by the D-Backs and Pirates, and you've got a recipe for a decline in postseason odds.

As for the Brewers, they split their first 12 games of the season and have blown three one-run ninth inning leads since closer Corey Knebel had to be placed on the disabled list. (The Brewers did come back to win one of those three games.) Those are the losses you rue at the end of the season. The winnable games at just slipped away. Milwaukee has suffered a few too many of those in the super early going.

The Cardinals are in a similar spot as the Brewers. They were a bubble team coming into the season and a slow start to the season (5-6) combined with Pittsburgh's great start as taken a bite out of their postseason odds. The Rangers, meanwhile, were a postseason long shot to begin with. They're 4-9 in the early going, making October baseball that much less likely.

CBS Sports Writer

Mike Axisa joined CBS Sports in 2013. He has been a member of the BBWAA since 2015 and has previously written about both fantasy baseball and real life baseball for MLBTradeRumors.com, FanGraphs.com, RotoAuthority.com,... Full Bio

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