2018 World Series projections: Dodgers get the edge over Red Sox by slightest of margins

The 2018 World Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox gets underway soon. Anecdotally, most person-on-the-street predictions and bookmakers seem to lean Red Sox. That, of course, stands to reason given that the Sox won 108 games during the regular season and just vanquished two fellow 100-win squads -- the Yankees and defending-champion Astros -- in the earlier rounds. As well, the Red Sox, needing just five games in the ALCS, are much more rested than the Dodgers, who went the full seven games in the NLCS against the Brewers

Stream every 2018 World Series game on fuboTV (Try for free). For a complete look at the Fall Classic schedule, click here.    

So what does the SportsLine Projection Model (@SportsLine on Twitter) think about this year's Fall Classic? SportsLine has simulated this World Series thousands of times, with the current probable rotations in force, to arrive at a series outlook. Here's what's come out of the wash:

  • The Dodgers won the series 51.2 percent of the time. 
  • The Red Sox won the series 48.8 percent of the time. 

It's basically in coin-flip territory, but there's a slight Dodger lean to the sims, as you can see. SportsLine, it should be noted, has been bullish on the Dodgers for some time. As well, the projection model has been forecasting a Dodgers-Red Sox World Series since the All-Star break, so it's had a good year. 

For a bit of a deeper dive, here's how often each of the possible series outcomes came to pass during those thousands of sims: 

  • Red Sox win series in four games 5.8 percent of the time. 
  • Dodgers win series in four games 7.3 percent of the time. 
  • Dodgers win series in five games 12.4 percent of the time. 
  • Red Sox win series in five games 13.1 percent of the time. 
  • Red Sox win series in six games 14.5 percent of the time. 
  • Red Sox win series in seven games 15.4 percent of the time. 
  • Dodgers win series in seven games 15.5 percent of the time. 
  • Dodgers win series in six games 16.0 percent of the time. 

In a miracle of modern mathematics, all those add up to 100 percent. Anyhow, the most likely outcome is Dodgers in six, but as you can see the margins are very tight from outcome to outcome. For fans of sporting intrigue, know that SportsLine gives this series better than a 30 percent chance of going the full seven games. 

So who wins every playoff game? And which teams are a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to get MLB Playoff picks from the proven model that simulates every game 10,000 times, and find out.     

If the numbers are any guide, the 2018 World Series should be a hotly contested one. 

CBS Sports Writer

Dayn Perry has been a baseball writer for CBS Sports since early 2012. Prior to that, he wrote for FOXSports.com and ESPN.com. He's the author of three books, the most recent being Reggie Jackson: The... Full Bio

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