2019 MLB win totals, odds, predictions: Advanced computer model picks under 77.5 for San Diego Padres

Pitchers and catchers already have reported, and soon all Major League Baseball teams will be in full scale spring training, with the first pitch of the regular season just around the corner. The 2019 Major League regular season schedule begins with the 2019 Japan Opening Series featuring the Oakland Athletics hosting the Seattle Mariners at the Tokyo Dome on March 20-21. The traditional MLB Opening Day, featuring all 30 MLB clubs, will take place on Thursday, March 28. Vegas win totals for each team are all over the map, ranging from 59 for the Baltimore Orioles to 97 for the New York Yankees. Should you go over or under each team's total? Before you lock in any picks for 2019 MLB win totals, check out the results from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulated the entire season 10,000 times and found five MLB teams whose Vegas win totals are way off. This same model crushed the 2018 NFL schedule and is beating the books in NBA and college basketball, so you'll want to see what it has to say.

The model performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com the past three years when it came to picking games straight up. Moreover, the model has returned more than $5,200 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks the past two years and is up more than $4,000 this season alone on top-rated NBA plays. 

Now, it's locked in on Vegas' 2019 MLB win totals. We can tell you the model sees the Padres continuing to struggle and suggests a play on the Under against their season win total. Last season, the Padres finished 25.5 games back of the division-winning Los Angeles Dodgers, and only the Miami Marlins had fewer wins (63) in the National League. 

San Diego was felled by a familiar recipe of anemic offense combined with little in the way of reliable pitching. The Padres ranked at or near the bottom of the NL in every major offensive category with a .235 batting average (No. 13 in the NL), .279 on-base percentage (last), .380 slugging percentage and a .677 OPS (No. 13 in both). 

Key departures from the lineup include Christian Villanueva, Freddy Galvis, Cory Spangenberg and Carlos Asuaje, all of whom saw significant action. They combined for 49 homers and 157 RBIs. 

The only key additions to this point are infielders Ian Kinsler and Greg Garcia. Kinsler is 36 and coming off a year in which he saw career lows in most offensive categories. Most observers consider Garcia to be a solid role player at best. 

The pitching staff has been decimated by injuries and attrition, and lost Clayton Richard via trade with the Toronto Blue Jays. The Padres ranked No. 13 in overall pitching in the National League with a team ERA of 4.40, just 36 saves and 71 quality starts. 

The model also generated huge disparities on four other teams, including the Kansas City Royals. They finished with 58 wins last season in a dismal season. Oddsmakers have set their season-win total at 69, and the projection model has a strong opinion on the 2019 fortunes for a Kansas City team that won the World Series four years ago.

So which teams sail past their projected win totals? And how many wins will every single MLB team have this season? Visit SportsLine now to get the five best season win total bets, plus see every team's projected record, all from an advanced computer model that keeps crushing its picks, and find out.

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