The San Diego Padres will try to level the NLCS at 2-2 when they face the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 4 on Saturday night. San Diego lost home-field advantage when it dropped a 2-0 final in Game 1, but it responded with an 8-5 comeback win in Game 2. The Phillies regained control of the series with a 4-2 win at home in Game 3 on Friday night. Right-handed pitcher Mike Clevinger is going to start for San Diego, while left-hander Bailey Falter is making the start in what is expected to be a bullpen game for Philadelphia.
First pitch at Citizens Bank Park is set for 7:45 p.m. ET. The game is a -110 pick'em (risk $110 to win $100) and the over/under is 8 in the latest Phillies vs. Padres odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before making any Phillies vs. Padres picks, be sure to check out the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it enters the league championship round on a 20-13 roll on top-rated MLB money-line picks, returning more than $400. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Padres vs. Phillies and just locked in its picks and NLCS predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Phillies vs. Padres:
- Padres vs. Phillies money line: San Diego -110, Philadelphia -110
- Padres vs. Phillies over-under: 8 runs
- Padres vs. Phillies run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+180)
- Phillies vs. Padres picks: See picks here
Why you should back the Padres
San Diego has been in difficult situations multiple times during its playoff run, so the Padres are not going to be fazed by Friday night's loss. The Padres have an advantage against Falter, who is making the first playoff start of his career. He has not stepped on the mound in 17 days, making this a tough spot for him to succeed in.
Falter allowed three earned runs in just 1.2 innings against San Diego last year, while Clevinger threw five innings of one-hit baseball against the Phillies in May. Clevinger has made plenty of postseason appearances during his career, giving him the upper hand in this pitching matchup. San Diego will be using its best bullpen arms on Saturday night due to the importance of this game, while Philadelphia has more leeway due to its lead in the series.
Why you should back the Phillies
Philadelphia has less pressure entering this game, as it took control of the series with its Game 3 win on Friday night. Falter isn't likely to go too deep into this game, while San Diego needs Clevinger to throw at least five innings. The Phillies have more options as far as pitching is concerned, and their lineup has been hot this postseason.
Designated hitter Bryce Harper is in line to be the MVP of October, racking up 14 hits with four home runs and seven RBI. The Padres have now struggled at the plate twice during this series, with Manny Machado and Juan Soto going a combined 1 of 7 at the plate on Friday. Philadelphia has won four of the last five meetings between these teams and has a chance to pull within one game of a World Series appearance on Saturday.
How to make Padres vs. Phillies
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the run total, projecting 8.5 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model's NLCS picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Padres vs. Phillies? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.
