Trea Turner (again) and the Phillies got us off to a huge start on Wednesday before Alex Bregman and the offenses -- mostly the Dodgers -- failed us in the nightcap. The good news is the Dodgers aren't around to mess me up any longer. More good news is after the 2-2 day I'm now 15-9 so far here in Best Bets for the playoffs. I also hit two of three Wednesday over on SportsLine.
Speaking of which, my motto on SportsLine is "stick with what works." You know what has been working? Trea Turner, baby. I've played his over all five games in the playoffs so far and he's hit it all five games.
Braves (-152) at Phillies (+129), 8:07 p.m. ET
Starting pitchers: RHP Spencer Strider (20-5, 3.86) vs. LHP Ranger Suárez (4-6, 4.18)
It's win or go home for the 104-win Braves, who were the best team in the regular season from whatever point in the first half they took the mantle from the Rays. There was little disputing from July through the end of the regular season that the Braves were the top dog. The Phillies have the opportunity to eliminate them in four games here.
This is the same pitching matchup as Game 1, when Suárez was great but only was left in the game for 3 2/3 innings. Strider threw well, but got no run support.
The play: Trea Turner over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+105)
Fortunately it's back down to 1.5, though we flew past the 2.5 on Wednesday when he hit his home run (his H+R+RBI total was five).
Turner has gone over 1.5 hits plus runs plus RBI every single playoff game. From the time he resurrected his season (Aug. 5) through these five playoff games, Turner has 72 hits, 46 runs and 43 RBI in 52 games, an average of 3.1 per game on this prop, or twice what we need.
Turner is 0 for 17 in his career against Strider and that'll scare some people off, but he's making contact. He's only struck out twice against the Braves' ace and those were his first two at-bats. He's had a lot of contact and some of it hard contact against Strider of late. He'll find a hole in Game 4.
In fact, I'll say he singles, steals second and then scores on a Bryce Harper single in the first inning Thursday.
