Astros vs. Rangers odds: Sunday Night Baseball picks from model on 5-1 MLB run

Week 3 of MLB action wraps up with a Lone Star State showdown between the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers on Sunday Night Baseball at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Astros are a -330 favorite on the money line, meaning it would take a $330 bet on a Houston win to return $100. The over-under, or total number of runs Vegas expects to be scored, is 8.5.

Before you make a pick on this nationally televised showdown, you need to see what SportsLine's Projection Model has to say. This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, entered the weekend on a 5-1 run on its picks involving the Astros, including a cash on Friday when it backed Houston (-250) against the Rangers in the series-opener.

Now the model has simulated Astros vs. Rangers 10,000 times and come up with some surprising results.

We can tell you that the model is leaning towards the over, saying that hits in 51 percent of simulations. But its stronger pick is on the money line, where it's identified one side as a strong value, saying it hits almost five percent more often than its odds imply .You can get that pick only over at SportsLine.

The model has taken into account the huge pitching mismatch in this game.

Astros starter Justin Verlander has been one of the most dominant pitchers of the past decade. He's off to a fast start this year as well, posting a 2-0 record with an ERA of 1.45 and a WHIP of 0.96.

Bartolo Colon, a 45-year old journeyman, takes the hill for the Rangers after signing a minor-league deal with the team shortly before the season. He's bounced around multiple teams in the past two years and struggled to carve out a full-time spot.

But the -330 price on Houston is steep, even for an impressive team coming off a World Series title.

Colon, despite limited opportunities this season, does have a 1.64 ERA. And if hard-hitting third baseman Joey Gallo, who enters this game with four home runs, can help spark the Rangers lineup, they'll have a chance to keep this one competitive and perhaps pull off the big upset.

So which side should you back on Sunday night? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Astros-Rangers money line has all the value, from the model that entered the weekend on a 5-1 run on its Houston picks

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