Brewers vs. Mets odds, line: MLB picks, best predictions for Jacob deGrom's return from model on 14-5 roll

The New York Mets look to further Milwaukee's recent struggles when they meet in the first of a three-game series on Friday. The Mets (13-11) have won two of three overall and four of the past seven meetings with the Brewers (13-13) at home. Milwaukee, meanwhile, has lost three of its last five series and its last four road games. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET from Citi Field. New York has won 39 of 72 home games against the Brewers and is -175 on the money line, meaning a $175 wager would net $100. That's down from an open of -180. Meanwhile, the over-under, or total number of runs Vegas expects to be scored, is seven in the latest Brewers vs. Mets odds, down from an open of 7.5. You'll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying about the game before laying any Brewers vs. Mets picks of your own.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks in multiple sports. It is off to a profitable start on all its A-rated MLB picks, entering Week 5 on a strong 14-5 run. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now the model has dialed in on Brewers vs. Mets. We can tell you it's leaning under seven runs, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine. 

The model knows that after finishing 70-92 in 2017 and 77-85 in 2018, the Mets appear to be continuing that uptick and enter the series at the top of the NL East standings after taking two of three from Philadelphia this week. They also get a huge boost with the return of a healthy Jacob deGrom (2-2, 3.68 ERA), who gets the start. He has been out since April 15 with a sore right elbow. Before being injured, deGrom had been nothing short of sensational, pitching 13 shutout innings, striking out 24 and walking just two batters in wins over Washington and Miami to start the season. 

Also carrying the load of late for the Mets are infielders Jeff McNeil (.363) and Robinson Cano (.272) and first baseman Pete Alonso (.306). McNeil has had five multi-hit games over the past 10, while Cano has gone 11-for-19 over the past six, including 5-for-7 against the Phillies. Alonso leads the Mets with 21 RBIs and has already had nine multi-hit games.

But just because New York has moved to the top of National League East standings does not mean they will provide value on the Brewers vs. Mets money line. 

That's because Milwaukee is showing signs of breaking out of its recent slump. Third baseman Travis Shaw has upped his average from .154 to .200 over the past 13 games and went 4-for-12 with three home runs this week at St. Louis. Center fielder Lorenzo Cain (.263) has had eight multi-hit games and had a six-game hitting streak snapped on Monday. No player in the game has been as hot as right fielder Christian Yelich (.326). Yelich has blasted 13 home runs and hit a club-record 31 RBIs in the month of April, winning a pair of Player of the Week awards. 

Right-hander Chase Anderson (2-0, 3.00 ERA) gets the assignment on the mound. He is coming off five scoreless innings in a spot start against the Dodgers on Saturday. He allowed just one hit, walked two and struck out five. Milwaukee also holds the statistical edge over the Mets in slugging percentage (.468 to .434) and home runs (50 to 31). Only the Seattle Mariners have hit more homers with 56 going into Thursday night's game. The Brewers also enter the series as the top defensive team in MLB, committing a league-low five errors. 

So who wins Brewers vs. Mets? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mets vs. Brewers money line you should be all over, all from the advanced model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.

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