What's going on gambling brethren, it's Chris Bengel with you for the second time in as many newsletters. This past weekend offered a fair amount of pain to the sports betting community, and that's putting it mildly.
Personally, I had a five-leg NFL parlay on Sunday that I was sure would cash. The first four legs hit and all I needed was the Kansas City Chiefs moneyline. Sadly, we all know how that turned out, as Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens dashed my hopes and dreams.
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As bad as this past weekend was, I still had a better week than the bettor that placed a 16-leg parlay and just needed the Detroit Lions moneyline to win $736,959. Let's try to get back on track with some baseball picks!
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
⚾ Mets at Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Red Sox (-130): The Red Sox have been one of the bigger surprises in baseball this year. This is a team that had a great first half, cooled off after the break, but has recently been on a hot streak. The Red Sox are currently riding a five-game winning streak and have scored at least seven runs in every game during that stretch.
Now, the pitching matchup may not appear to favor the Red Sox with Eduardo Rodriguez owning a 5.00 ERA on the season. And it's worth noting that Mets starter Marcus Stroman has been the team's best pitcher since Jacob deGrom went down. However, this pick is more of an indictment of the Mets offense, which has been extremely sporadic as of late.
The Mets have dropped five of their last six games and have scored three or fewer runs three times during that time frame. I'm confident that the Red Sox, who own the third-highest batting average in baseball this season, will be able to get enough runs to overwhelm the Mets in this one.
Key Trend: Red Sox are 5-0 in their last five games as a favorite
💰 The Picks
⚾ Blue Jays at Rays, 7:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Rays (-111): This is a matchup that burned me last week as the Blue Jays were blanked by the Rays 2-0. This time around, I'm rolling with the Rays and starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen. Rasmussen was absolutely sensational in his last start against the Blue Jays, who do boast one of the most dangerous lineups in the majors. The right-hander only yielded two hits in five innings of work while also striking out three.
The Rays have been one of the best home teams in baseball this season as they boast a 48-28 record at Tropicana Field. Considering that the Rays have the American League East all but locked up, it's hard to imagine this group taking their foot off the gas in this one.
Key Trend: Rays are 40-15 in their last 55 games as a home favorite
⚾ Mariners at Athletics, 9:40 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Over 8.5 runs (-120): I can't say that I expected the Mariners to be in the postseason race when the 2021 season got underway. However, Seattle currently sits just three games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Mariners have scored at least four runs in each of the team's last eight games and have defeated the Athletics and Red Sox during that stretch. That's pretty impressive for an offense that owns just a .224 batting average on the season.
Meanwhile, the A's have been one of the hotter teams in baseball over the past two weeks. Prior to Monday's 4-2 loss at the hands of the Mariners, the A's had won five consecutive games and scored at least five runs in three of those contests.
On top of all that, the pitching matchup isn't exactly what you would call stellar. Mariners starter Marco Gonzales has shown flashes throughout his career, but has a tendency to be inconsistent. On the other hand, A's starter Paul Blackburn has surrendered at least four runs in two of his last three starts and owns a 4.94 ERA on the season. I'd expect there to be plenty of scoring opportunities in this one and nine combined runs isn't a hard number to reach.
Key Trend: The over is 11-1 in the Mariners' last 12 games with the total set between 7.0 and 8.5 runs