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All times Eastern | All odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Cardinals at Cubs, 8:05 p.m. | Watch live: MLB.tv
- The Pick: Cubs (-125)
- Key trend: The Cubs have won three of their past five games at home.
The Cubs have been up-and-down lately, but I'm willing to side with the better team in this spot. Despite the Cardinals currently riding a five-game winning streak, I'm fading them based on their overall track record this season.
Chicago's offense has been on fire as of late. This is a team that has scored a mind-boggling 25 teams over their last two games. Yes, I understand that it was against the lowly Nationals, but that still can't be ignored. After all, Chicago has been one of the better offenses in all of baseball as they currently rank 10th in runs scored on the year. Getting slugger Cody Bellinger back in the lineup last month has been huge for the Cubs. Bellinger is hitting .456 with five home runs and 13 RBIs during the month of July.
It's not going to be a surprise if the Cubs lineup continues to stay hot. That's because the Cardinals are sending Steven Matz to the hill on Thursday. Matz has had a season to forget as he's 0-7 with a 4.86 ERA. To make matters worse, the veteran left-hander also has a 6.39 ERA in six away starts in 2023. Considering how hot the Cubs have been offensively, I'm expecting them to jump all over the Cardinals early and remain in the win column.
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💰 More MLB picks
Orioles at Rays, 6:40 p.m. | Watch live: MLB.tv
- The Pick: Over 8 (-110)
- Key trend: The over is 5-0 in the Orioles' last five games.
As I mentioned above, the upcoming four-game series between the Orioles and Rays is massive. It could go a long way towards deciding which team wins the AL East. With so much on the line, I'm more than content taking the over here.
We're talking about two of the top offenses throughout the majors in this matchup. The Orioles have been on fire in the six games since the All-Star break, averaging 5.2 runs per game and scoring at least five runs in four of them. One of the biggest reasons for that offensive success has been the performance of catcher Adley Rutschman at the dish. Rutschman has hit safely in five consecutive games and has four extra-base hits during that time. The over has hit in six of the Orioles' last seven games, including five straight, so I'm very confident in the Orioles scoring in this spot.
Additionally, while the Rays are currently in a bit of a funk, having lost their past four games while scoring just 10 runs during that span, I do believe that Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Gibson offers the Rays an opportunity to get back on track. Gibson has surrendered at least four earned runs in four of his last five starts, and he's coming off an outing in which he gave up five earned runs on nine hits against the Marlins.
Cardinals at Cubs, 8:05 p.m. | Watch live: MLB.tv
- The Pick: Marcus Stroman Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-173)
- Key trend: Stroman has registered at least five strikeouts in six of his last eight starts.
I'm obviously a big fan of the Cubs in this spot. While their offense has been tremendous, another big reason that I'm backing the Cubs is due to starting pitcher Marcus Stroman.
Stroman had a pair of rough outings to start off July in which he surrendered nine earned runs in two starts. However, the Cubs right-hander bounced back in a big way as he gave up just one earned run on three hits in six innings against the Red Sox in his most recent start. Even with those two bad outings, Stroman has still managed to be consistent in the strikeout department with at least five punch-outs in seven of his last nine outings. The Cardinals aren't at the top of the league in terms of strikeouts, but have struck out 21 times in just their last two games. It's a high number, but Stroman should be able to easily clear it in this spot.
