The Los Angeles Dodgers continued their aggressive offseason on Sunday night, reportedly agreeing to terms with free-agent outfielder Teoscar Hernández on a one-year contract worth $23.5 million.
Hernández joins a winter bounty that includes two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, right-handed starters Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, and outfielder Manuel Margot. The Dodgers also retained outfielder Jason Heyward and reliever Joe Kelly, meaning that at least seven members of their 26-player roster will have been either free agents or with another team this winter.
With Hernández in tow, you might have some questions about the Dodgers' offseason, like how much they've spent to date and what could possibly come next. Below, CBS Sports has answered five particularly pressing inquiries.
1. How much have the Dodgers spent this offseason?
The best answer is that it just depends. In terms of pure dollars, with no consideration for the contract or payment structures, the Dodgers have cleared the $1 billion mark. (Heck, they did that on Ohtani and Yamamoto alone.) Here's a look at the financial breakdown for their aforementioned seven additions, including the extension they gave to Glasnow.
Player | Years | Total dollars |
---|---|---|
Ohtani | 10 | $700M |
Yamamoto | 12 | $325M |
Glasnow (extension) | 5 | $136M |
Hernández | 1 | $23.5M |
Margot | 1 | $12M |
Heyward | 1 | $9M |
Kelly | 1 | $8M |
Total | 31 | $1.21B |
Without getting too far in the accounting math weeds here, there's another way to look at the Dodgers' winter that will result in a less impressive number. The short version goes like this: The time value of money stipulates that a dollar today is worth less than a dollar promised in 10 years. The Dodgers have leveraged that theory by including deferrals in most of their big contracts -- Ohtani's and now Hernández's, but also Mookie Betts' and Freddie Freeman's. Take a look at the difference based on Cot's Contracts' numbers:
Player | Deferred $/year | Total value | Present day value |
---|---|---|---|
Ohtani | $68M | $700M | $437M |
Betts | $9.6M | $365M | $307M |
Freeman | $9.5M | $162M | $148M |
Total | $87.1M | $1.23B | $892M |
Those contracts, then, have a discounted actual value, to the extent that the Dodgers' cash outlay is less formidable than it appears.
2. What's their 2024 payroll and tax situation?
You thought we were done with money matters? Hardly.
According to Baseball Prospectus' estimate, the Dodgers are projected to have an Opening Day 26-player payroll just shy of $300 million. (For comparison, that leaves them more than $30 million short of the 2023 New York Mets. Their competitive balance tax payroll -- that is, the payroll that relies on annual average value and is used to determine luxury tax fees -- is projected to clear $300 million, however, putting them more than $70 million beyond the threshold.
Factor in how the Dodgers have consistently exceeded said threshold, and BP forecasts their tax bill to top $54 million when all is said and calculated. To put it another way, the Dodgers are projected to spend more on tax fees than the Oakland Athletics are slated to pay their entire 40-player roster ($42 million). Can you tell which franchise's owner lusts for champagne and which doesn't?
3. Who will be in the starting outfield?
While the Dodgers have publicly discussed the possibility of Ohtani playing some outfield late in the season, it's fair to think that won't have a huge impact on their starting alignment throughout the summer. Conversely, the decision to use Mookie Betts as the primary second baseman has and will continue to shape what Los Angeles' outfield looks like on most nights.
Based on the Dodgers' current roster, we feel comfortable making a few assumptions about how manager Dave Roberts will fill out his lineup card.
Foremost, we think it's safe to pencil in Hernández as the starting left fielder. He's their weakest outfield defender on paper, though his strong arm should come in handy whenever runners try to go from first to third on singles to left. Over in right, the Dodgers will trot out Jason Heyward most days. His above-average glove was cited as a motivation for moving Betts to the keystone. That leaves center field as James Outman's domain. He's leveraged his well-above-average speed into a 94th percentile rank in Outs Above Average.
Since Heyward and Outman are left-handed batters with wide platoon splits, we suspect Roberts will play the matchup game whenever a particularly tough southpaw is on the bump. (Heyward faced righties in nearly 93% of his trips to the dish last season, making him one of the most aggressively platooned batters in the league.) On those occasions, expect to see Margot and Chris Taylor inserted, with Margot likely slotting into center if both are in the game.
4. Might they trade from their depth?
We can't say for certain, but it's a fair question to ask. Mind you, the Dodgers have several young position players who are overqualified for continued minor-league assignments, like infielders Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch. We may soon have to include outfielder Andy Pages in that group, too.
Every team has to decide how much depth is enough without either compromising the players' trade value or their optimal composition. In other words, there are arguments to be made that the Dodgers should keep everyone, just in case an injury occurs or a veteran underperforms. There are also arguments that the Dodgers should move some of their spare parts to upgrade elsewhere on their roster. We'll see where they fall on that spectrum.
5. What comes next?
Predictably, the Dodgers roster looks to be in a good place. (It better be, right?) For the sake of having a subhead worth reading, we think there are a few spots that they would still like to upgrade if they were operating in an ideal world.
The most glaring of those perceived holes is shortstop. There were questions about Gavin Lux's ability to cut it at the six defensively even before he tore his ACL last spring. The catch is that the Dodgers might not have much choice on this front. The free-agent market for shortstops is sad, and it's unclear if the Milwaukee Brewers intend to move Willy Adames ahead of his walk year. Otherwise? There don't appear to be a lot of clear improvements out there.
If you're getting greedy, you could point out that either Emmet Sheehan or Ryan Yarbrough are expected to be Los Angeles' fifth starter. Sheehan is an interesting young starter and Yarbrough pitched well for the Dodgers following a deadline trade. Los Angeles has a slew of other promising pitching prospects if Sheehan isn't your speed -- watch out for Nick Frasso at some point this summer -- and we think that means the Dodgers are likely to stay internal for any rotation needs … unless, that is, they want to bring back Clayton Kershaw (who is expected to be out until the summer after undergoing shoulder surgery) or they have a chance to land another well-above-average starter. Think along the lines of Chicago White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease, who has been tied to L.A. in rumors this winter.
Lastly, there's the bullpen. How many above-average relievers does a contender need? The answer is always one more. The Dodgers' group is mostly locked in place. Only two of their projected Opening Day relievers have options remaining, and one of those happens to be Brusdar Graterol. Could they make room for Josh Hader, Kenley Jansen, or Emmanuel Clase if they really wanted to? Certainly. Will they? That's another matter.
Granted, after the winter the Dodgers have had, we suppose you can't rule out anything that improves their chances of winning the World Series.