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Remember 2000? 

Man, that was a long time ago. I wasn't too far removed from high school and I'm pretty sure one of my colleagues wasn't even born yet, even though he claims otherwise. "Y2K" was probably still a conversation topic and only one Star Wars prequel had been released. 

Also, the Yankees won the World Series that fall. It was their third-straight championship. 

Since then, no team has repeated as World Series champion. Inevitably, that turns our eyes in the direction of the current defending champion Atlanta Braves. 

Will they repeat? 

Well, they very well could. They are stacked. They won 101 games in the regular season and stormed back from a 10 1/2 game deficit. Their run differential doesn't suggest they had great fortune in sequencing or anything. They have a great offense, great rotation and great bullpen. They went an absurd 78-34 after May, which is a full-season pace of 113 wins. 

Wait, I'm supposed to be talking about why they won't win it all again. Let's give it a shot. 

The Strider situation

The Braves' playoff rotation could be excellent to the point of ridiculous. Max Fried is an ace. Kyle Wright is very good and capable of looking like a frontline starter at times, even if he'd be best suited as the three. Charlie Morton is very inconsistent -- after all, he's 38 years old -- but also capable of looking like a frontline guy in short spurts. And then there's Spencer Strider. He's been an ace in his time in the rotation. That's a hellacious top four, potentially. 

Of course, the newly locked-up Strider got hurt recently with an injury to his right (throwing side) oblique. The Braves put him on the NLDS roster Tuesday and he's scheduled to throw a bullpen, but we'll see if he can make it into a game.

If he can't, or starts and reinjures it early in the game, the rotation is decently damaged. Without Strider, Morton moves into the third spot and then it's either rookie Bryce Elder -- who is certainly capable of good starts -- or veteran Jake Odorizzi in the four spot. Things would become rather tenuous without Strider at full strength. 

The Braves patched everything together with a less-than-ideal rotation last year and won the World Series, but ... 

Funky things happen in short series

It bears repeating, even if Braves fans are tired of hearing it, that the 2021 Braves had the lowest win total of the playoff teams and still won it all. They were an 88-win team that took down the 106-win Dodgers in the NLCS in just six games. Remember the wild-card Nationals topping the Dodgers in 2019? We just watched the Mariners sweep the Blue Jays, Phillies sweep the Cardinals and Padres take down the 101-win Mets. 

Recent history is littered with examples of inferior regular-season teams beating the powerhouse teams and the shorter the sample of play, the better the chances of an upset. 

As for this specific team, just three losses in five games would do it this round and then only four in seven in the NLCS or World Series. They've lost at that rate a few times this season, even when they were scorching hot. Immediately after a 14-game winning streak, they lost three of five, including two to the Cubs. They lost five of six in early August and four of five in the middle of September. 

A small string like that is all it takes. 

What if the offense slumps? It happens! Even to a high-octane group like these Braves. They scored three runs in three games Sept. 21-23. If we looped in Sept. 20, it was six runs in four games. 

What if Kenley Jansen falters again? From Aug. 27-Sept. 11, he blew three saves in seven chances, coughing up seven runs on seven hits in 5 2/3 innings. If a stretch like that happens again in a short series with close games, that alone could bury the Braves. 

Just to reiterate, what if Strider gets injured during, say, the first inning of a Game 2 in a series? They'd then be scrambling to sort things out with the rotation and sometimes that's when one team gets a leg up. 

You never know how it's going to go down, but sometimes for the hunted, it feels like we virtually blinked and their season was lost in the playoffs. 

The field is loaded

One of the other 100-win teams is gone, but the Dodgers (111-51) could well be waiting for the Braves in the NLCS, if the Braves can get by the Phillies. On the AL side, the 106-56 Astros and 99-63 Yankees were fellow powerhouse division winners. Even if someone made the mistake of discounting teams like the Mariners, Phillies, Padres and Guardians, the Braves absolutely have their hands full with tough competition to repeat. 

And anyway, even if the field looked weak, the odds for any individual team are pretty bad to win it all when there are eight teams remaining. 

Take this year, which is most certainly not a weak field. According to SportsLine, here are the odds to win the World Series: 

  • Dodgers, 25.2%
  • Yankees, 19.1%
  • Astros, 14.3%
  • Padres, 12.6%
  • Braves, 11.4%
  • Phillies, 7.4%
  • Guardians, 6.6%
  • Mariners, 3.4%

One doesn't have to agree with the order above or dispersion of the percentages to understand the concept that with eight teams left, the individual odds for each are low. Specifically, here, however, we've got four teams with better chances and the Braves with not much better than a one in 10 chance. 

The exercise I did above in coming up with occurrences that could derail the Braves? I'm well aware we could do this for every single team left. I didn't focus on the Braves because I felt like it; I focused on them because they are the defending champs and there's a reason we haven't seen a repeat champ since 2000. It's incredibly hard to do, the odds are against it and so much has to go a team's way in order for it to happen. 

Someone is going to defy the odds this season. There will be a team that has enough things go their way that they'll be hoisting that "piece of metal" (tsk, tsk, Mr. Manfred) in early November and then be awarded rings next spring. Recent history says it won't be the Braves, that's all.  

No one repeats anymore

It won't happen for the Braves because it didn't happen for the Diamondbacks, Angels, Marlins, Red Sox, White Sox, Cardinals, Red Sox, Phillies, Yankees, Giants, Cardinals, Giants, Red Sox, Giants, Royals, Cubs, Astros, Red Sox, Nationals or Dodgers. 

That's sound logic, right? 

Nah, it's not. I know that it's bad logic, but the odds are overwhelmingly against a Braves repeat this season, so I'll take 'em to lose at some point. Anyone who disagrees, you can have the Braves and I'll just take the field. Deal?