Free MLB home run picks, odds, lines for June 16: Kyle Schwarber among best bets for Monday HR player props
SportsLine's model is up 34.85 units on HR picks in the last 69 days. Use its MLB picks for MLB sportsbook promotions like MLB boosts
By
Ryan Wooden
•
4 min read
Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber has been one of the most feared power hitters in baseball for over a decade, but he's found another gear since coming to Philadelphia ahead of the 2022 MLB season. Schwarber has launched 153 home runs in 536 games since joining the Phillies, and he's been top three in the National League in homers every season. He'll enter Monday with 22 home runs and is second in the league behind only Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani (25). Both players will be in action today despite more than half of MLB enjoying an off day, but with Ohtani making his return to the pitching mound and listed at +210 in the MLB home run odds, the model sees more value in Schwarber at +320.
He's a key component to our MLB HR parlay today as he matches up with the Marlins and Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara enters Monday's matchup with a 7.14 ERA, and you can get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet loses with the latest BetMGM promo code. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks on betting sites.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 34.85 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 69 days. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Monday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.
Best MLB home run picks for Monday, June 16:
- Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+320)
- Junior Caminero, Rays (+390)
- Jose Altuve, Astros (+500)
- Parlay these picks for +11836 odds at FanDuel (odds subject to change)
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+320)
The two-time MLB All-Star is having one of the best seasons of his career. His .923 OPS ranks second in his 11 years in the big leagues, and his .379 OBP ranks first. His 57.6% hard-hit contact rate is also a career-best, and his .271 BABIP is well in line with his career numbers, so there's nothing to suggest a major slowdown. He's also 10-for-35 with a .405 OBP in his career off Alcantara, so he should be seeing the ball well on Monday.
"Schwarber is off to a slow start in June after a hot start to the season, but he does have two HRs over his last four games," SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. "Alcantara has put together back-to-back strong starts but they came against Colorado and Pittsburgh. Even with those outings, his ERA on the season sits at 7.14. Left-handed batters have an .825 OPS against Alcantara this season." Both BetMGM and FanDuel are offering this price on Schwarber, but the model sets his line at +260.
Junior Caminero, Rays (+390)
Caminero has quickly become a favorite in model home run projections because of a highly leveraged swing that produces incredible bat speed. The 21-year-old ranks first in baseball with a 77.9 mph average barrel speed, and he's used that incredible power to hit 17 home runs this season. As he dials in, expect him to square the ball up more frequently and to generate more lift -- both precursors of a prodigal power jump.
"Caminero is coming off back-to-back games with a HR and that was on the road, where he has struggled mightily this season. Caminero is now back at home where he is hitting .297 with 11 of his 17 HRs," Fetner said. "With the Home Run Index at a 9 out of 10, he might not need to get all of the ball to hit a HR today." FanDuel has the best price again here.
Jose Altuve, Astros (+500)
Altuve's .747 OPS is his lowest since 2013, but he's still well on his way to his seventh career 20-homer season despite his diminutive frame (5-foot-6 and 167 pounds). He's hit 10 home runs over his first 68 games, and the right-handed hitter will play in homer-friendly Sacramento with temperatures in the 80s and the wind blowing out to left field on Monday.
"Altuve has raked against JP Sears in his career. He is 9-for-22 (.409) with two HRs and four doubles vs. Sears," Fetner noted. Altuve also has five multi-hit games over his last eight contests." The model sets the line at +450 for Altuve to homer and you can get +480 at FanDuel for our MLB home run parlay. However, it's DraftKings offering the best price overall, and you might be able to add even more value with the latest DraftKings promo code.
Where to bet MLB props on Monday
Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Monday:
| Sportsbook | Bonus offer | Promo code |
|---|---|---|
Bet $1, double your winnings next 10 bets | CBSDYW | |
BetMGM | ||
FanDuel | ||
DraftKings | ||
Bet and get up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets | No code required | |
Bet $5, Get $150 in bonus bets win or lose | CBSBET365 |
More MLB picks for Monday
You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Monday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Matt Severance, who is on a 163-83 roll (+2366.75) on baseball picks. SportsLine's Bruce Marshall is also 39-38 (+907) over his last 77 MLB ATS picks, and you can catch all his latest picks here.
