Although spring training is still three weeks away and dozens of our top 50 free agents remain unsigned, it is never too early to look ahead to next year's free-agent class. Juan Soto is the biggest name set to hit the market. Other notables include Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, and Corbin Burnes. Next offseason's free-agent class should be more talent-laden this winter's.
Alonso, Bregman, Burnes, and Soto share something in common other than their service time. All four are Scott Boras clients. Boras, the sport's most famous (infamous?) agent, typically represents the best free agents available each winter. His client list this offseason includes Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, and Blake Snell.
Generally speaking, Boras likes to take his top clients into free agency and get the largest contract possible, if not set a new record. It was Boras who negotiated Alex Rodriguez's landmark $252 million deal with the Texas Rangers way back when. He also brokered Gerrit Cole's $324 million contract with the New York Yankees, among many others. During the 2022 offseason, he secured more than $1 billion for his clients, including Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, and Brandon Nimmo.
Soto has already rejected one massive extension offer and the smart money is on him playing out 2024 with the Yankees, then seeing what the open market has to offer next offseason. Burnes does not seem to be in a rush to sign an extension either. And yet, while many Boras clients head into free agency, not all do. Some have signed long-term extensions.
Here are five notable Boras clients who passed up their first chance at free agency to sign a long-term contract extension, listed chronologically.
Carlos González, Colorado Rockies
Extension: 7 years, $80 million (signed January 2011)
Say what you want about the Rockies, they do tend up to lock up their best players. CarGo signed his extension at age 25 and a few months after finishing third in the NL MVP voting. At the time, he was four full seasons away from free agency. This was a very early career extension. It bought out González's final four years of team control plus three free-agent years.
For the most part, González performed at an All-Star level during his extension, authoring a .284/.347/.507 line and averaging 23 home runs and 10 steals per season. That batting line was split into a .947 OPS at home and a .733 OPS on the road, but you can only play in the ballpark you're scheduled to play in. CarGo signed an extension early in his career to remain in Coors Field.
Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers
Extension: 8 years, $120 million plus two opt outs (signed April 2013)
At the time, Andrus was entering his age-24 season and he was only two years away from free agency. He'd previously signed a three-year, $14.4 million extension covering 2012-14, which did not buy out any free-agent years. That extension merely gave the Rangers cost certainty over his arbitration years. The new extension did not kick in until 2015 and covered only free-agent years.
Andrus was a great defender at the time of the extension and he was coming off his best offseason in 2012, when he slashed .286/.349/.378. His offense took a step back in 2013 (.271/.328/.331), though he eventually blossomed and his best seasons in 2016 and 2017. For his career, Andrus always fell into the good more than great bucket, though he was good for a long time.
The opt outs came after the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Andrus exercised neither and remained with the Rangers. They eventually traded him to the Oakland Athletics for Khris Davis in what amounted to a salary shuffle trade in February 2021. That traded worked out better than it sounds for Texas: Jonah Heim was the second player they acquired in the deal.
Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
Extension: 7 years, $175 million plus two opt outs (signed May 2016)
This qualifies as perhaps the most surprising Boras extension of them all. Strasburg signed it in the middle of the season and, despite having Tommy John surgery earlier in his career, he'd made 115 starts the previous four years. He was only 27 at the time and a year removed from leading the league with 242 strikeouts. Strasburg passed up a chance to sign the largest pitching contract ever that offseason. (The record at the time was David Price's $217 million deal with Boston.)
As with most Nationals contracts of that era, Strasburg's extension included heavy deferrals. The contract called for $15 million annual salaries from 2017-23, with the remaining $70 million deferred without interest from 2024-30.
The opt outs came after the 2019 and 2020 seasons and timing is everything. Strasburg led the Nationals to their first ever championship in 2019 and was named World Series MVP. He then opted out and then signed a new seven-year, $245 million contract to remain in Washington. That was the largest pitching contract in history ... for 24 hours. Cole signed his deal with the Yankees the very next day.
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Extension: 5 years, $151 million (signed March 2018)
The Astros signed Altuve at a time when he had all the leverage. He was the reigning AL MVP and the beloved face of the franchise when the club was coming off their first ever World Series. Altuve, then 29, also had two years remaining on the four-year, $12.5 million extension he signed earlier in his career. This new extension did not begin until the 2020 season.
It has been money well spent, of course. Altuve owns a .294/.366/.496 batting line since signing his extension. He's gone to three All-Star Games, received MVP votes in three seasons, and helped Houston win its second World Series title in 2022. Since signing his extension, FanGraphs' calculations say Altuve's production has been worth $208.9 million. He was paid $100.2 million those years (after salary proration in 2020).
Altuve, now 33, is entering the final season on this extension. I have a hard time seeing him in another uniform. The question is will he and Boras again forego free agency to sign an extension, or will they test the market and make the Astros win a bidding war to retain their franchise player?
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox
Extension: 6 years, $120 million plus one opt out (signed April 2019)
I remember being stunned when the Red Sox locked up Bogaerts. He was only 26 at the time and a year away from free agency, and $20 million per year for a star shortstop was a bargain. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado had just signed $300 million deals in their mid-20s a few weeks earlier. Bogaerts potentially passed up a similar payday and instead took this extension.
It all worked out in the end. Bogaerts continued to play like a star from 2019-22 -- his extension kicked in for the 2020 season -- slashing .304/.376/.503 and receiving MVP votes all four seasons. After the 2022 season, Bogaerts exercised his opt out, and then signed an 11-year, $280 million contract to be Machado's teammate with the San Diego Padres.
For all intents and purposes, the Bogaerts extension was a three-year, $60 million contract with a three-year, $60 million insurance policy. Unless his performance cratered or he suffered a catastrophic injury, Bogaerts was always going to opt out and sign a much larger contract. And, if his performance did crater or he got hurt, he would have played out the rest of his contract with Boston.
